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1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:13 pm

CMC and UKIE - thank God !!

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f211st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f24

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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:16 pm

ukie precip map:

[img]1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 10981910[/img]

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:19 pm

Hmmm interesting, and Al when you all are saying NYC, does this include me and you? Because right now southern parts of N YC have a warning and we do not, do you think there is an y chance we get upgraded or is this just another WWA, or will we not really know since it seems, as you posted above models may be having trouble.....once again lol
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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:22 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hmmm interesting, and Al when you all are saying NYC, does this include me and you? Because right now southern parts of N YC have a warning and we do not, do you think there is an y chance we get upgraded or is this just another WWA, or will we not really know since it seems, as you posted above models may be having trouble.....once again lol
North of SI will probably go to a WWA

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:22 pm

@sroc4 wrote:ukie precip map:

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 <a href=1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 10981910" />

Wow if that's all snow NYC and northern suburbs that looks like 6-10 or so!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:23 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Hmmm interesting, and Al when you all are saying NYC, does this include me and you? Because right now southern parts of N YC have a warning and we do not, do you think there is an y chance we get upgraded or is this just another WWA, or will we not really know since it seems, as you posted above models may be having trouble.....once again lol
North of SI will probably go to a WWA

Of course....so close yet so far.
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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:ukie precip map:

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 <a href=1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 10981910" />

Wow if that's all snow NYC and northern suburbs that looks like 6-10 or so!
Its not

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:25 pm

UKIE is 7-10 for NYC and just north, thank god hoping this one verifies, and wow crushes southern jersey 15-18!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:25 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:ukie precip map:

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 <a href=1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 10981910" />

Wow if that's all snow NYC and northern suburbs that looks like 6-10 or so!
Its not

I figured it wasn't how much is rain, or can we not know for sure?
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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:27 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:ukie precip map:

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 <a href=1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 10981910" />

Wow if that's all snow NYC and northern suburbs that looks like 6-10 or so!
Its not

I figured it wasn't how much is rain, or can we not know for sure?
Ill wait for it to come out on Wxbell to really judge...maybe 1/4 of it

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Post by lglickman1 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:29 pm

is there anyway to know when the bulk of the precip will be coming in? When its rain or when its snow?

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:30 pm

Damn, that's like a few inches then for me at most.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:33 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:is there anyway to know when the bulk of the precip will be coming in? When its rain or when its snow?

I think its going to be very hard to predict when the changeover occurs by looking at models. The arctic air is going to win out and my guess is that change over starts occuring earlier than what most will think. I think the models solns lag behind what is actually going to happen because it happens too quickly for them to pick up on it.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Dtone Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:36 pm

Its getting late for a Winter Storm Watch for Manhattan, BX, So. Westchester. Really is a complicated forecast. Its time to join the rest of NYC in a Warning or go to a WWA.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:36 pm

The fact that there is still so much waffling over the past 24hrs amongst models including some of the S/R tells me that this is going to be a very dynamic and fluid situation overnight.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:37 pm

@Dtone wrote:Its getting late for a Winter Storm Watch for Manhattan, BX, So. Westchester. Really is a complicated forecast. Its time to join the rest of NYC in a Warning or go to a WWA.

They will update between 3:30-4:30 today if they are going to today

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Fededle22 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:38 pm

NWS still has me for 3-7" .  I am very confused as to what to expect.

This Afternoon: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain and sleet before 10pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 10pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. Low around 22. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. Temperature falling to around 19 by 3pm. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow before 7pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 8. Wind chill values between zero and 5. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


TWC has me for 2-6"


Last edited by Fededle22 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by lglickman1 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:38 pm

hopefully the nowcast will favor us

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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:51 pm

IMO we are right at now cast time.  This is not your run of the mill LP that will move to the NE and spread moisture into the area.  This is a pretty unique set up, esp for this time of year.  The intense temp gradient is really running the show here.  There are other factors like the upper level jet stregth and placement, and the strength of the waves riding the frontal boundary and the timing of it all etc. that play a huge role in determining where the best forcing will ocur.  However;  after reading through rb's case study it is clear it becomes the sum of all moving parts that determines the outcome to a given area.  Because there are several key players at diff levels of the atmosphere we really are going to have to wait and see how they all begin to develop and interact to really get a sense of who gets what.  Franks map will be dead on for many on here but I can "almost" guarantee that there will be areas that bust high and/or low with how dynamic a set up this will be.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by deadrabbit79 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:52 pm

Bill just released his updated snow map...........totals down a whole lot..........2-4 for me. Oh well I'm over this. Bring on Spring, I cant wait to see my grass again

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:58 pm

Euro looks great. This is not over. Upper air looks much better at 12z than it did at 00z. Plus, UKIE/EURO have not wavered.

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Post by Dtone Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:04 pm

@deadrabbit79 wrote:Bill just released his updated snow map...........totals down a whole lot..........2-4 for me.  Oh well  I'm over this.  Bring on Spring, I cant wait to see my grass again

I see..pushed 4-8" Staten Island south, 2-4" north of there, maybe nothing in Orange, Putnam.


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Post by HectorO Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:04 pm

@deadrabbit79 wrote:Bill just released his updated snow map...........totals down a whole lot..........2-4 for me.  Oh well  I'm over this.  Bring on Spring, I cant wait to see my grass again

I really do hope this is the case. Pity should be taken on those who have hectic jobs out doors during this haha. Last night at work, was a disaster and I really don't need another disaster this week. Slammed from 5pm until 1am, it was BS. I'm tired of the weather and just need calm warmer weather now.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:05 pm

EURO is holding and going to serve!!!

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f181st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f21
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f24
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 11 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f27

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Post by oldtimer Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:13 pm

Sroc That was a nice right up for me Very clear and I understood all that you stated Thanks

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