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1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:14 pm

I respect Bill but I do not see it - is he hugging the NAM here?? Look at this compilation of model runs at 12Z - red flag when GFS OP is south of GEFS !!

NYC
UKIE 8 PLUS
GEM  6 -8
GEFS 6 -8
RGEM 6-8
EURO 6-8

Ratio`s will be good NW so the gradient may not be as tight as we once thought .

Great turn around from bridge jumping yesterday and this AM .
And the weather channel says 1-3" for me in NNJ.

My administration asked me my opinion and said I heard it was giong to be nothing - that is wish casting on their part.

Cold air rushed in faster than the models can pick it up or it is shown on radar - ala 2002 xmass storm had me raining when it was puking ice and then snow in about 1/2hr timeframe.

Do not doubt the minds on this weather board

Euro 10:1 ratios - many surprises happen at night - usually for the good here!!

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 12 Post-33-0-84537100-1425492553

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:15 pm

Euro way down on totals from 00z, all came south, unless last nights 00z included what fell last night.
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Post by Artechmetals Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:15 pm

Fred , I'm with you have no idea what to expect . This year seems like we have been in between storms either too far north or too far south
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Post by mako460 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:20 pm

Is there a start and finish time for this? Would greatly appreciate it b/c I need to staff my snow removal crew.

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Post by H.G. Rising Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:21 pm

Temperature looks to be an issue on every single one of these maps. When it is able to change from rain to snow will be key to how much we get. IMO, it looks like we're not getting more than 4" in NNJ. I-78 and north will be 2-4".
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro way down on totals from 00z, all came south, unless last nights 00z included what fell last night.

With ratios Jman: and last nights did include some of what fell
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 12 <a href=1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 12 Ecmwf_21" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:26 pm

[img]1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 12 Ecmwf_22[/img]

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:27 pm

Now I do not think the hiogher ratios will be realized south of Staten Island and maybe the south shore of LI, but N and W of it should look at the second map for sure.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:29 pm

Okay so if Euro is right I could get a warning, especially if ratios are 15;1 and the changeover is not too long.
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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Okay so if Euro is right I could get a warning, especially if ratios are 15;1 and the changeover is not too long.
I feel, for some reason, you mentally need a winter storm warning to validate this storm.. It's snowing in March, take what you can get no matter what watch/warning/advisory you are in...

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:34 pm

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 12 Post-86-0-87315600-1425494213

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:35 pm

Not that, ok let me clarify, I am hoping for at least 6 inches, that would be a warning for me. If it goes to a advisory that means likely 2-4 maybe 3-5. So I will speak in totals instead of advisorys ok.
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Post by lglickman1 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:36 pm

That map included ratios?

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Post by jimv45 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:36 pm

this isn't going to be a big deal except southern areas but Q your right take what you can get in March!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 12 Post-86-0-87315600-1425494213

that looks nice but northern suburbs of city ratios 15:1, sroc mentioned north of SI? And how much of that is rain, like sroc said probably going to be hard to know exact totals because of when the changeover occurs right?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:39 pm

12z suite looks very nice, on EURO about on the 9" line imby, will take it in a heartbeat, GEFS good and so is UKIE/GGEM, NAM only bad run.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:41 pm

I'm literally on pins and needles right now waiting for manhattan to go from the blue WSW color to either purple (I'll cry) or pink (yippeeeee). It's just a matter of some sick WX validation; let me be. tongue
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:42 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm literally on pins and needles right now waiting for manhattan to go from the blue WSW color to either purple (I'll cry) or pink (yippeeeee). It's just a matter of some sick WX validation; let me be. tongue

lol

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:44 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm literally on pins and needles right now waiting for manhattan to go from the blue WSW color to either purple (I'll cry) or pink (yippeeeee). It's just a matter of some sick WX validation; let me be. tongue

LOL, I'll take the purple, right now I'm just white!
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Post by HEATMISER Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:46 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I'm literally on pins and needles right now waiting for manhattan to go from the blue WSW color to either purple (I'll cry) or pink (yippeeeee). It's just a matter of some sick WX validation; let me be. tongue

LOL, I'll take the purple, right now I'm just white!

The way this winter has been I am Black and Blue!!!!

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Post by H.G. Rising Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:47 pm

I have a sinking suspicion that this is what we have coming to us...

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 12 Snowma11

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Post by Guest Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:50 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Okay so if Euro is right I could get a warning, especially if ratios are 15;1 and the changeover is not too long.
I feel, for some reason, you mentally need a winter storm warning to validate this storm.. It's snowing in March, take what you can get no matter what watch/warning/advisory you are in...

Mean...but funny from a 17-year-old. Don't worry JMan he "yells" at me too. tongue

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:08 pm

Honestly, everyone needs to stop the imby questions. There are a LOT of variables with this storm, some good, some bad. We also have members from all over the place, so it is difficult to forecast in detail for all. You have a general idea where the accumulations stand, an inch here or there is not a big deal. Keep an eye on radar and temps in your area and let it play out. If there are significant changes to the current thoughts, updates will be made... but you need to relax and enjoy the fact that we have had a great backend to this winter after a slow start! Hoping for a decent amount for those who want it! bounce bounce

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:10 pm

Warnings south of NYC (already in one), advisories north, NYC itself borderline, up to NWS discretion.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:11 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Okay so if Euro is right I could get a warning, especially if ratios are 15;1 and the changeover is not too long.
I feel, for some reason, you mentally need a winter storm warning to validate this storm.. It's snowing in March, take what you can get no matter what watch/warning/advisory you are in...

Mean...but funny from a 17-year-old.  Don't worry JMan he "yells" at me too. tongue

Yup, not gonna start this here, but I have too much going on to let a 17 year old get to me. I am allowed to want what I want and if it doesn't happen it doesn't and like soul said yeah maybe it is some kind of validation feeling I dunno, but who cares.
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