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Thoughts on this winter

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Thoughts on this winter Empty Thoughts on this winter

Post by Math23x7 on Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:51 am

Central Park measured 7.5" of snow yesterday to put it at a total at 42.5" on the season, the 8th time it measured at least 40" (~102 cm) of snow in a season in this century. Just to put in those eight seasons:

2002-03: 49.3"
2003-04: 42.6"
2004-05: 41.0"
2005-06: 40.0"
2009-10: 51.4"
2010-11: 61.9"
2013-14: 57.4"
2014-15: 42.5"

It will warm up this weekend and beyond as we have temperatures set to go into 40s and 50s as the clocks spring forward on Sunday. We may or may not have snow beyond that. Personally, I have no intention of wanting more snow. I would like it if it yesterday's snowfall was the last as it would be a good sendoff.

Now it's incredible that we got this snow given how mild December was. Think about this: from January 6th-March 3rd, the highest temperature at Central Park was 43 degrees Fahrenheit (+6 degrees Celsius). Two days ago, it hit 45 degrees but we're still waiting for it to hit 50 which it hasn't done since January 4th. I mean as brutal as last winter was, it at least had it's in-between thaws, including the day of the Super Bowl when it hit 56 degrees. This cold stretch means that the snow hasn't had much of a chance to melt as February 2015 was the 3rd coldest February on record and the 10th coldest month on record, making it the coldest month since January 1977.

Now, a lot of credit goes to Frank. When we had our NJ Strong Weather forum meetup on January 10th, people at the event were wondering if the pattern would get active because with the exception of small clippers that happened that week and two light snow events prior to January, the winter had been uneventful at that point (only 3.2" at that point in the season). He looked at the upper level 15 day forecast models on his device and it looked like for the most part that it would be more of the same in terms of snowstorms. He then showed us something that caught his attention: The setup for January 24th looked very different from what we had the prior month. He said that was the date he was targeting for the pattern change. Sure enough, that is when the party started as that was the first of many snow events as 39.3" (~100 cm) of snow have fallen in Central Park since then. And it's been even rougher east of NYC towards Boston where they have had over 100" (>254 cm) of snow since then. Ever since that late January 2011 blizzard where Frank was the only one I know that called for a major snowstorm ("Godzilla") when I do not recall anyone on TV calling or it, he has been my prime weather source. Of course, other members on this forum including sroc4, dunnzoo, Quietace, aiannone, syosnow94, CPcantmeasuresnow, docstox12, and many other who have also helped to make the board a useful (and fun) source of weather over the last couple of years.

Finally, I wanted to throw this in: Central Park began snowfall measurements in 1869. In the final 31 years of the 19th century, there were 10 seasons with at least 40" of snow, In the 20th century, there were 17 seasons with at least 40" of snow. So far, the 21st century has had 8 seasons with at least 40" of snow and we're only 15 years into the century.

It may or may not happen, but I hope we have warmer weather in the coming months to compensate with this brutal cold stretch.

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:13 am

Great Post Mike. Thank you. I am particularly intrigued by this:

Finally, I wanted to throw this in: Central Park began snowfall measurements in 1869. In the final 31 years of the 19th century, there were 10 seasons with at least 40" of snow, In the 20th century, there were 17 seasons with at least 40" of snow. So far, the 21st century has had 8 seasons with at least 40" of snow and we're only 15 years into the century.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:27 am

Awesome post Mike!! You contribute just as much as anyone else on here as well with your killer memory and stats.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:47 am

@sroc4 wrote:Great Post Mike.  Thank you.  I am particularly intrigued by this:

Finally, I wanted to throw this in: Central Park began snowfall measurements in 1869. In the final 31 years of the 19th century, there were 10 seasons with at least 40" of snow, In the 20th century, there were 17 seasons with at least 40" of snow. So far, the 21st century has had 8 seasons with at least 40" of snow and we're only 15 years into the century.

Nice post Mike, I'm busy today but there's a lot I'd like to add at some point.

Sroc let me add one thing to this. I often talk about the snow drought decades of the 70's 80's and parts of the 90's. The 1970's and 1980's were the 2 most snowless decades since record keeping in 1870. Unfortunately I and many others lived through all of them.

In the period from the winter of 1978/79 through the winter of 1992/93 Central Park had no winters over 30 inches of snow. When you consider the 146 year average is 28.7 inches per year that is a long stretch of not once exceeding your average.
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Post by mako460 on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:53 am

Awesome Post, I wanted to do the same and thank everyome on this board for their input. See, we are actually a spoiled bunch of snow weenies. We never had it so good. Even when we are not racking up Boston like numbers, yes we can get pissed, but we are doing much better than any of us ever expected. To put this all in perspective, it is now MARCH 6th and it is 22* in CPK and we have 8 inches of fresh snow on top of an already overperforming snow base. Who can complain about that? Even if we get the gradual warm up as expected, there is still chances in the long range. We've had almost record cold and above average snowfall this season, sounds like a win win to me!!!!!!!!!! And couldn't be happier. I'm hedging my bets on one last storm right around St Patty's day. The good old luck of the Irish!!!

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:01 pm

Mike, excellent read and all extremely interesting.

Mako and CP hit the nail on the head.We who lived through the snow droughts of the 70's, 80's and parts of the 90's are living witnesses to the fat city of extreme snowy winters the last 15 years.This year was incredible and , as Mike pointed out, Frank saw this and mentioned it to all at the 2nd Meetup.To predict that wth such accuracy is beyond belief.Anyhoo, I think Mother Nature is going to throw one more big snowball our way considering the snowy period we have just had.
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:05 pm

Mike,

You're as important as any of the mets on here. You do a great job with all the stats. Good write-up.

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Post by devsman on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:48 pm

Thinking of the droughts of snow, god, i hope those dont show up anytime soon. Weird how it works. I remember the summer of 94...or 95...34? days of 90+ weather. fires in the pine barrens. Last year, only one day over 90. Ebbs and flows.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:06 am

Low this morning 3/7/15 of 2.7

It looks like yesterdays 3/6/15 low of -2.2 will be the last sub zero of the winter.

Consider that geographically I'm only 45 miles due north of Central Park yet since Jan 29th I've recorded 16 sub zero mornings. 1 in January, 13 in February, and 2 in March. What an incredible stretch of cold. People in Minneapolis would be complaining about a stretch like this. The February average temperature here was 6 degrees colder than the February average in Minneapolis. In NYC it was only 2.5 degrees above the average February temperature in Minneapolis.

I never got anywhere near the -23 we recorded in January 1994, -10 was the coldest I recorded, and CPK never got  within 4 degrees of their -2 from that stretch,  but it was a far longer stretch of well below normal than that historic outbreak.
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