NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

March 20th Storm

+16
Fededle22
skinsfan1177
Grselig
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
snow247
chrism
docstox12
NjWeatherGuy
jmanley32
algae888
rb924119
sroc4
amugs
oldtimer
Frank_Wx
20 posters

Page 1 of 4 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Go down

March 20th Storm Empty March 20th Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:26 pm

What better way to open spring with a nice snowstorm! Well, I actually don't think it will be too bad. Since its coming during the day Friday, I'm questioning how much will actually stick. I also think some rain could mix in at times depending on exact track of the storm. Heck, some models have nothing at all for the area still. That said, we have blocking in place with some Pac ridging so we should see some moisture come up the coast on Friday with enough cold air in place for snow.

I will have a 1st call later tonight but at the moment only thinking a couple of inches on cold surfaces for NYC Metro area. To be honest, minor snow events in March bother me. Useless crap that melts the next day since temps could rebound into the 50's before taking a "dive" again to the 40's next week. That's still below normal this time of year.

March 20th Storm NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

00z NAM was about 2-4 inches for the area.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by Guest Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:29 pm

Ill take 4". Will get me to 70" for the season which is top 3 all time for me.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by oldtimer Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:33 pm

Frank Any chance of onset slowing down?

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1098
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 75
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by amugs Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:01 am

LET'S GO EURO CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP!!

March 20th Storm Post-33-0-32136500-1426676134

March 20th Storm Post-33-0-78777400-1426676142

Looks like 4"plus here peeps!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:14 am

I think taking an avg of the 10:1 snowfall maps by euro gfs and ukie, and then multiplying that number by about 0.5-0.75 to acct for slightly less on the ratio you can give yourself a good general idea of what will accumulate mostly on colder surfaces at this stage. With room of course to shift up or down depending on if QPF trends a tad heavier or lighter and/or if the timing of the heaviest Precip trends slower to move in like say what the euro is hinting at.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6973
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:34 am

Euro is aggressive still

March 20th Storm Post-33-0-37746100-1426676386

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:36 am

Jet streak is not in a bad spot, not great either. This could be why precip gets forced into our area despite the track of the surface low

March 20th Storm Gfs_uv250_us_11


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by rb924119 Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:02 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Jet streak is not in a bad spot, not great either. This could be why precip gets forced into our area despite the track of the surface low

March 20th Storm Gfs_uv250_us_11


RRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:11 am

Hey rb or whomever. Do you recall where the discussion about the jet streak quadrants that rb wrote up are. If so can seine let me know?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6973
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by rb924119 Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:20 am

@sroc4 wrote:Hey rb or whomever. Do you recall where the discussion about the jet streak quadrants that rb wrote up are. If so can seine let me know?

It starts here and then goes through a few more of the following pages. I think there's also another discussion about other synoptic-scale forcing here too. I can't remember, though lol

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t496p50-sunday-monday-snowstorm-2nd-call-snow-map

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by rb924119 Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:23 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Hey rb or whomever. Do you recall where the discussion about the jet streak quadrants that rb wrote up are. If so can seine let me know?

It starts here and then goes through a few more of the following pages. I think there's also another discussion about other synoptic-scale forcing here too. I can't remember, though lol

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t496p50-sunday-monday-snowstorm-2nd-call-snow-map

Here's the second discussion:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t496p150-sunday-monday-snowstorm-2nd-call-snow-map

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by algae888 Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:21 am

Nam is wetter and cold. gives us 3 to 5 inches area wide.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:55 am

12z GFS was impressive. 3-6/4-8 ordeal could be in order for us.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:57 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS was impressive. 3-6/4-8 ordeal could be in order for us.

The energy at H5 looked much better(more amped) this run. We will see how the rest of the models unfold today.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6973
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by algae888 Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:17 pm

this system is starting to resemble the March 1st and March 5th systems actually it looks like we're back in the same pattern, after seven to ten day break ,which started February 1st.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by amugs Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:18 pm

The -EPO PEEPS IT STRIKES ONCE AGAIN!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by algae888 Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:20 pm

I cannot recall a time when we had such an unfavorable high pressure location (east and southeast of us) and this much snow. it's probably because low pressure has been so unorganized this winter. when was the last time we had an organized low pressure affect our area?
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:21 pm

Although ground had warmed the muddy areas are freezing over again so it may have a chance to stick, if it stays cold enough maybe even to roads too.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by algae888 Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:22 pm

and yes mugs the -EPO definitely played a big part
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by amugs Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:26 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Although ground had warmed the muddy areas are freezing over again so it may have a chance to stick, if it stays cold enough maybe even to roads too.

It will jman with this cold air in place.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by amugs Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:31 pm

CMC BABY!!


March 20th Storm CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

March 20th Storm CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

March 20th Storm CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:34 pm

@algae888 wrote:this system is starting to resemble the March 1st and March 5th systems actually it looks like we're back in the same pattern, after seven to ten day break ,which started February 1st.


Check out my post from March 5th.   15days ago!
by sroc4 on Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:28 am

Im sorry I cant help myself, but just look at this for March 20th.  Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles 500mb height anomalies respectively.  I said it before and Ill say it again.  The -EPO is rebuilding coupled with the +PNA potentially; all because the warmer than normal SST off the west coast of NA.  The negatives (blue colors) out in the pacific off the western CONUS will be shooting energy along the STJ.  While the Alaskan Ridging (-EPO signal) will be sending strong Arctic HP south leading to a trough in the east.  Now keep in mind that climatology this time of year will moderate the arctic air as it gets further south relative to what we have experienced thus far this winter, but the source region of the air mass is arctic as depicted here.  The possibility of a similar set up to what we are seeing now, or the possibility of a true Nor Easter if there is Northern energy that is timed right with southern energy and phases is a possibility from March 19th-24Th.  Im just saying
March 20th Storm <a href=March 20th Storm Eps_z519" />
March 20th Storm <a href=March 20th Storm Gfs-en15" />
March 20th Storm <a href=March 20th Storm Gem-en16" />

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6973
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by algae888 Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:44 pm

Scott you are a weather prophet. I remember that post and had a hard time believing it would happen this late in the season. what an amazing run we have had. by the way the Euro looks like it's back on top again especially with the southern systems
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 18, 2015 1:35 pm

12z runs seem to show 4-6 in this neck of the woods which would be robust for this time of year and a nice final storm and a good trend. Question is can it hold for 2 days because I cant see how it trends a whole lot better. Dont want to see trends start to burn us in the wrong direction.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by amugs Wed Mar 18, 2015 1:38 pm

A word from the meteorlogical prophet Scott!!

AMEN!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

March 20th Storm Empty Re: March 20th Storm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 4 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum