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March 20th Storm

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Post by nancy-j-s Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:14 pm

Frank - hope all works out okay...
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Post by Snow88 Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:15 pm

0z RGEM is all snow for NYC and Philly. The rain/snow line cuts across south Jersey.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:02 am

March 20th Storm - Page 4 2moatjq
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:56 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Family emergency tonight means no forecast until I get home, which I have no clue when that will be. I have not even looked at data to even give an accurate number.

Frank, thinking of you and hoping everything is OK.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:56 am

@Snow88 wrote:March 20th Storm - Page 4 2moatjq

NWS not buying this for me.They are going with NAM saying only a few inches if that.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:18 am

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (my personal favorite ;-) just hoisted for all of NYC Metro. "2-4 inches with locally higher amounts."
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:42 am

On this one, I'd give NWS some slack.Late season snow events are very temperature sensitive and depend on the rate of snowfall for accumulations.If the storm overproduces, we'll see the last minute NWS snow bump up during the storm.Love when that happens, 2 to 4 to 4 to6 to 6 to 8, etc etc etc.Seen that many times.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:11 am

Nope Doc no slack for them. Number 2;

March 20th Storm - Page 4 StormTotalSnowFcst

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:20 am

LOL, Doc,I like that!!!

Also like that map for all.Frank mentioned latest runs coming in juicier.So far, so good.Need 2.4 inches to hit 70 here.Odds are getting better.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:33 am

\


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:07 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:40 am

Have them use a forklift to load you in the cargo hold so you can reduce your walking.I'll be on measuring duty, Buddy, don't worry about that, have a safe flight!

4 to 6 would be great CP, we need to break that 71.4!!!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:46 am

Absolutely Doc, let's keep the upward trend's going. Over 65 inches two years ago over 71 last year and let's go over 72 inches this year more if possible.

Not a bad three-year stretch when you consider our average is about 50 inches and we seem to keep missing the big ones.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:12 am

Below is the National Weather Service forecast for tomorrow for Orange County.

Friday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 32. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I wonder if that should have read total snowfall 3 to 6 inches? I've never seen them put in the forecast a north wind of 3 to 6 mph. Who cares if it's 3 to 6 mph?
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:53 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Below is the National Weather Service forecast for tomorrow for Orange County.

Friday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 32. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I wonder if that should have read total snowfall 3 to 6 inches? I've never seen them put in the forecast a north wind of 3 to 6 mph. Who cares if it's 3 to 6 mph?

I believe so - their hangin' out in the Hooka Shop in Denver again!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:11 am

The 12Z RGEM came in a lot less bullish than last night's 0Z RGEM.

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:12 am

@Math23x7 wrote:The 12Z RGEM came in a lot less bullish than last night's 0Z RGEM.

In this run, SE PA and CNJ get the big snow.

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Post by Guest Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:37 am

Hey Doc and you Hudson Valley guys. I need 4" to get to 70" here in Syosset. You need 2.5" It's a race!!!!!!!!!!!!! You guys have the cold/elevation I have more qpf. We're neck and neck coming down the home stretch here.

Pro-rated my 66" here on LI has to be about 90" up in the Hudson Valley though!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing

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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:37 am

@Snow88 wrote:0z NAM
March 20th Storm - Page 4 261m710

12Z RGEM matches with this from yesterday.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:38 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Below is the National Weather Service forecast for tomorrow for Orange County.

Friday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 32. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I wonder if that should have read total snowfall 3 to 6 inches? I've never seen them put in the forecast a north wind of 3 to 6 mph. Who cares if it's 3 to 6 mph?

3 to 6 mph? never hear that before from TWC.

By the way CP, I just sent you a PM.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:39 am

syosnow94 wrote:Hey Doc and you Hudson Valley guys.  I need 4" to get to 70" here in Syosset.  You need 2.5"  It's a race!!!!!!!!!!!!!  You guys have the cold/elevation I have more qpf.  We're neck and neck coming down the home stretch here.

Pro-rated my 66" here on LI has to be about 90" up in the Hudson Valley though!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing

Jimmy, that's going to add some fun to this storm, who gets to 70 inches.Colder/less qpf VS warmer/more qpf.

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen!!!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:42 am

syosnow94 wrote:Hey Doc and you Hudson Valley guys.  I need 4" to get to 70" here in Syosset.  You need 2.5"  It's a race!!!!!!!!!!!!!  You guys have the cold/elevation I have more qpf.  We're neck and neck coming down the home stretch here.

Pro-rated my 66" here on LI has to be about 90" up in the Hudson Valley though!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing

You guys average about 33 inches per season we average about 50, so pro rated you're probably close Syos. You're 66 which is twice your norm would be 100 up here.

Shows how we keep missing out on the qpf and I'm suspecting this storm will continue that trend.
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