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3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 8:22 pm

A relatively quick moving system is going to attack the area tomorrow and bring with it moderate to at times heavy snow. The rate at which the snow falls is critical to whether or not it sticks to paved surfaces. Personally, I feel a lot of the sticking will occur on grassy/non-paved surfaces so subtract a couple of inches from this map if you're just worrying about major roadways.

The northern jet streak is going to try and enhance precipitation for northern areas, but latest trends are weakening it a bit so I cut back from northern PA to CT. The southern jet streak (this is a dual jet streak set-up) will be stronger and call for impressive lift to get into the blue shaded areas. Jersey Shore and SNJ will struggle to get accumulating snowfall. In fact, they may not see very much at all as 850's are expected to warmup for those areas.

Overall, it's a nice spring snowstorm to help add to seasonal totals. Temps. are expected to reach 50 degrees the next day. Don't expect it to "stick" around.

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map 11011244_908395365878890_5474230330354940160_n

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:05 pm

18z gem LAM holding it's ground
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map SN_000-048_0000

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:06 pm

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map 1395162_908409979210762_860793247966863078_n

Current radar is fairly impressive with precip returns. Will be interesting to see how this looks in the morning.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:25 pm

Thank You Frank for the updated info...I hope your family is holding up well?!
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:28 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Thank You Frank for the updated info...I hope your family is holding up well?!

Yea...they are. Thanks again everyone for the condolences

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Post by Artechmetals Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:42 pm

Hey Frank , just got back from vacation and heard about your loss ! My condolences to you and your family
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:49 pm

Stefs ticked south

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map SrefNE_prec_snowmn12_030

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Post by snow247 Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:06 pm

Dew points look real good right now
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:15 pm

Our school district called for early dismissal tomorrow.

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Post by snow247 Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:19 pm

Ours did too, not sure why.
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Post by HeresL Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:20 pm

Just got the call from Glen Rock too, Janet :-) I teach there.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:00 pm

Agree with new map, falls more in line with my thinking.
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Post by snow247 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:10 pm

Lee is all in for this event, at least 4 inches area wide.
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:23 pm

frank first off my condolences to you and your family. very busy last few days so here are my thoughts on this system. manhattan and other urban areas are going to have a hard time accumulating snow tomorrow. looking at current temps and also just driving home from Astoria, their is a wide discrepancy with temps. the ole heat island affect. 39 cpk and lga,38 Newark and jfk Astoria 39 hunts point 39. drove the hutch from Pelham bay park to my house is 3 miles away 38 at pbp and 31 imby. places that do not get below freezing tonight will not get much snow imo. think about it if cpk levels off at 34-35* by 8am and precip doesn't start till 11am they will probably start off with snow or a mix and about 37*. they will wet bulb down to 32 with such low dew points but will likely miss out on the first few inches of snow. so .6qpf at 8-9:1 imo will be less than 3" of snow for areas mentioned above and mainly on grass and trees. this is not a snow producer for most of the boroughs. however li c and n nj and lower Hudson valley should do well. most of li is in the 20's now. rgem hinting at a mix for the start around nyc. we shall see.
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map I_nw_r1_EST_2015032000_017
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Post by snow247 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:27 pm

28* here with a dew point of 12*, dew point appears to be rising. Upton doesn't have me getting above 28* tomorrow.


Last edited by snow247 on Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Dtone Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:34 pm

NWS has me at a low of 27* tonight and high of 30* tomorrow. They took it down quite a bit. If that verified then it really could pile up. I dont see anyone else calling for temps that cold in metro nyc. Its 38* here now.

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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:54 pm

@Dtone wrote:NWS has me at a low of 27* tonight and high of 30* tomorrow. They took it down quite a bit. If that verified then it really could pile up. I dont see anyone else calling for temps that cold in metro nyc. Its 38* here now.
tone I think you will do ok. I think you will get at or below32* by morning. teterboro dropped 7* in the last hour from 37 to 30. places like Astoria, bensonhurst hunts point all of manhattan  will not get to 32* tonight and rise a few degrees before snow starts. its these places that I feel will have a hard time accumulating snow. plus these areas are mostly paved going to be tough for them.


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Post by snow247 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:55 pm

00z GFS gives most, even the northern group, 4-6 inches. Ratios will also be better the further north one goes.
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Post by snow247 Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:58 pm

Well that's it for me, hoping for a good surprise/overperformer for all of us tomorrow! That would be nice.
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Post by snow247 Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:02 am

27* now btw, dropped 2 degreeg in around 15 minutes.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:02 am

I don't know about you guys, but the latest HRRR run (5Z) has snow changing over to rain in the NYC region by mid-afternoon. By hr 15 (4 PM), Central Park and LaGuardia Airport are at 42 degrees.

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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:19 am

latest nws snow map
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map StormTotalSnowFcst
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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:20 am

So frustrating to see more snow south.

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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:21 am

4k nam
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map Nam4km_asnow_us_13
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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:23 am

6z rgem
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map Rgem_asnow_us_12
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