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3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map

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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:34 am

syosnow94 wrote:2 things.  

1.  I never said "bust"  I said the radar doesn't look good so I'm not confident about accumulating snows right now.

2. Quietace has to be the most contrarian/negative person on this board when it comes to a snow forecast rabbit rabbit
Ouch...haha, fair statement though..
Anyway 37 and light snow

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:51 am

2pm HRRR we should all be blitzing

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_nyc_7

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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:53 am

OK, Frank, looking good!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:55 am

5pm HRRR shows a really heavy swath of snow from southern NY into west NJ

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_nyc_10

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:55 am

SREFS are a general 3-6" for the area

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 SrefNE_prec_snowmn12_018

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:56 am

11am I think is a good start time still

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Inxr1kphla_h

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:58 am

Latest NAM at 4pm...green is 850 line

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 NamNE_prec_cthk_009

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:59 am

NAM sim 4pm

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 NamNE_prec_prec_009

1pm H7 VV's

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 NamNE_700_vvel_006

1-5pm seems like the heaviest time frame for heavy snow

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:01 am

Radar filling in and picking up nicely in western PA.

HRRR and SREFS showing a jog north with precip - looks like March 5th storm to me minus the heavy dry air on the north of this.

Once we get the coastal going things swill be interesting

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Inxr1kphla_h

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:03 am

Surface pressures:
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Pmsl

925mb
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 925mb_sf

850mb
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 850mb_sf

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Post by Guest Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:13 am

HAHAHAHA it worked!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing My plan was to plant a seed of doubt so Frank would come out of hibernation and post a bunch of colorful maps to make all us snow weenies happy. Laughing Laughing

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:14 am

syosnow94 wrote:HAHAHAHA it worked!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing   My plan was to plant a seed of doubt so Frank would come out of hibernation and post a bunch of colorful maps to make all us snow weenies happy. Laughing Laughing

Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:16 am

@sroc4 wrote:Surface pressures:
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Pmsl

925mb
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 925mb_sf

850mb
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 850mb_sf

Is it just me or does that coastal low look really far south?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:20 am

Snow has commenced in Hackettstown, NJ.

Lovely.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:21 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Surface pressures:
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Pmsl

925mb
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 925mb_sf

850mb
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 850mb_sf

Is it just me or does that coastal low look really far south?

Goes to show how you can get a storm with potent upper air energy, favorably positioned jet streaks and being near the baroclinic zone

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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:25 am

12z nam is much farther north 4 to 6" for the entire area. the nam is always late to the party. a good sign is most temperatures are no higher than 35 degrees in and around New York City don't think they will go up much more. still need precipitation to come down hard for it to accumulate during the early afternoon
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:27 am

I have been so productive at work the last 2 weeks. Practically MVP.

Today? Not happening. It's snowing.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:27 am

Latest HRRR for 1pm - NICE

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_nyc_5

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:28 am

3pm...Madonne

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_nyc_7

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Post by Grselig Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:28 am

syosnow94 wrote:HAHAHAHA it worked!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing   My plan was to plant a seed of doubt so Frank would come out of hibernation and post a bunch of colorful maps to make all us snow weenies happy. Laughing Laughing


genius!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:39 am

Northerly tilt to the storm now on radar. -NAO working its magic

3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Post-747-0-26822500-1426861859

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:44 am

I don't want to let my guard down but I'm starting to believe we even have a chance here up north for a decent snow. Models now ticking a bit north rather than south trend and as Mugs said earlier we don't have that heavy dense cold dry air to our north like we did on the March 5th storm.

I probably just doomed the HV with the KOD.

28.8 waiting for a flake.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:45 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:45 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Surface pressures:
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Pmsl

925mb
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 925mb_sf

850mb
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 850mb_sf

Is it just me or does that coastal low look really far south?

Goes to show how you can get a storm with potent upper air energy, favorably positioned jet streaks and being near the baroclinic zone

Exactly Frank. Our last 3 events showed us that beautifully. Ive learned alot studying these set ups. Youll notice there are two areas of LP currently on the meso surface pressure map.
[img]3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Pmsl10[/img]

I think the one over WV ultimately wins and takes over and a single LP forms in the black circle.

BTW looks like 850 is trying to close off.
3/20 Spring Snowstorm Observations / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 850mb_sf

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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:03 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I don't want to let my guard down but I'm starting to believe we even have a chance here up north for a decent snow. Models now ticking a bit north rather than south trend and as Mugs said earlier we don't have that heavy dense cold dry air to our north like we did on the March 5th storm.

I probably just doomed the HV with the KOD.

28.8 waiting for a flake.

Yep, CP, even though it is futile, I still liked the look of that radar with lots of snow to our N and W.

We've got the cold, just need the snow now.Almost here.
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Post by Taffy Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:08 am

37.7 here and I just saw a few flakes falling. Frank's prediction of start time was right on schedule for my area.
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