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*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:01 pm

Follow link for the details

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/03/april-rasnow-showers-bring-may-flowers.html

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:18 pm

Nice Frank!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:12 pm

Thanks! April fools day could be interesting. Not as high about the weekend.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:05 pm

Nice writup, I am somewhat glad that this weekend may not work out as I have a major paper due the 1st lol (BTW OT I know but I am doing my final thesis/paper on hurricane sandy and post traumatic stress disorder and the response efforts and the necessary changes in the future for disasters of that majonitude on NYC, thought it would be cool to tie in my love for weather with my social work), yeah of course we may get the doozie on that day, luckily she wants it emailed. But I will gladly take two storms but sounds like the second is somewhat more likely but I still think coastal plain unless the storm has major dynamics will have trouble with snow, hopefully the 1st is cold enough, and man oh man Frank bring back the Euro solution we had with the 968mb storm for the 1st lol.
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:36 pm

Nice write up Frank and we need that pna to pill througb or we wait until Nov and Dec. No fn blocking all that -NAO being advertised last week by models was the typical fluff as we have seen ALL winter long !!
Let's do this one or two more times peeps!!

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Post by sabamfa Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:41 pm

This might be blasphemous, but I really hope for beautiful clear weather on the 1st. I'm a fundraiser and have a huge event up in sparta that night and am gonna have lots of problems if it's bad weather....rain or snow Sad

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:11 pm

Thank you once again Frank for taking time to help us with this.

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Post by Guest Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:39 pm

Good job Frank. If the storms don't work out we've had a great run.....and Trout season opens April 1st so it's a win/win for me!! Razz Razz

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:57 pm

12z GFS has a LP to out north and one to our south, the one to the north a bit stronger but both albeir weak, is this a step in the right direction for a phase though? They seem awful close together.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:29 pm

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...............................LOL Helllooo, echo boring times. LOL
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:03 pm

Update:

There is nothing to update.

Carry on.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:44 pm

lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:56 pm

Guidance today has lost the super -EPO/+PNA combo on April 1st. If this is true, there will not be a storm. Pretty big turn around...not sure I buy it just yet.

GFS went from this

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st 12z%2Bgfs%2B3

To this:

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st Gfs_z500a_namer_24

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:42 pm

Frank those are not the same output maps are they? Look to be a totally different color scheme, what about the other runs? That is however a glaring difference, if there is not going to be a storm I need it to be warm pronto : )


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Update:

There is nothing to update.

Carry on.

lol

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank those are not the same output maps are they? Look to be a totally different color scheme, what about the other runs? That is however a glaring difference, if there is not going to be a storm I need it to be warm pronto : )

Jman one is weather bell the other is Tropical tidbits.  Two diff sites.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:51 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank those are not the same output maps are they? Look to be a totally different color scheme, what about the other runs? That is however a glaring difference, if there is not going to be a storm I need it to be warm pronto : )

Jman one is weather bell the other is Tropical tidbits.  Two diff sites.

Oh ya oops lol, tis a tired one here.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:40 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank those are not the same output maps are they? Look to be a totally different color scheme, what about the other runs? That is however a glaring difference, if there is not going to be a storm I need it to be warm pronto : )

Jman one is weather bell the other is Tropical tidbits.  Two diff sites.

Oh ya oops lol, tis a tired one here.

Yea the WxBell one I took from my blog.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 23, 2015 6:17 pm

Frank...thank you for the blog...due to parcc testing(state tests that kids need to take 2x this year not even 2 months apart-enough to mess up any kids life Mad ) they scheduled the 4th grade field trip a month early...April 2nd...they will be outside all day building a long house..I am the class photographer and I really hope there is not storm
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Post by amugs Mon Mar 23, 2015 7:44 pm

We'll see what tomorrow and the next days brings us. Models struggle with these pattern changes as we all witnessed this year and longer.
If we lose the pna then let's lose the neg epo until next mid November I say, if it is cold then I want snow, if not at thus time of year the heck with it. Typical model flip flop that may do this a couple more times. Only time will tell.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:20 pm

Is this a done deal? Models don't seem to show anything for the 1st time frame.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 24, 2015 7:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Is this a done deal? Models don't seem to show anything for the 1st time frame.

Not quite. GFS has an inverted trough

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:03 pm

Might be more of a norlun. Dissappointing how we lost all that western ridging.

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st Gfs_z500a_namer_16

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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:00 am

cmc and 06z gfs have a second wave develop along the front for Friday night. gfs is east of cmc but west of previous runs...
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12
cmc rain to snow
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11
gfs
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:03 am

nws disco...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM.
LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

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