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*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:05 am

No mention of snow there Al, says showers. As far as I can see both of these events look dead to me nothing showing up for 1st and at best we get a weak trough on sat with MAYBE some snow for interior.
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:29 am

@jmanley32 wrote:No mention of snow there Al, says showers.  As far as I can see both of these events look dead to me nothing showing up for 1st and at best we get a weak trough on sat with MAYBE some snow for interior.
It is in the next paragraph
CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:42 am

Ehh no big deal, I want warmth, I am done wearing my coat lol, we did good 59 inches was ALOT more than I expected, albeit in smaller storms but still a good final just short of last year.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:44 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Ehh no big deal, I want warmth, I am done wearing my coat lol, we did good 59 inches was ALOT more than I expected, albeit in smaller storms but still a good final just short of last year.

Come on you quitter, just one more to top off the season. You know you'll welcome it as much as anyone on this board.
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:16 pm

Rgem looks really nice if you extrapolate. looks like a nice hit for Friday night
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:20 pm

Gfs has snow for Friday morning for north and west sections and snow for eastern half of Long Island Saturday and then that inverted trough for parts of the area Saturday night. it looks similar to the CMC for Friday night Saturday it came a little further west with the secondary low to affect Long Island


Last edited by algae888 on Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:25 pm

Gfs gives Northwest Jersey lower Hudson Valley and eastern half of Long Island 2 to 3 inches of snow Friday through Saturday. not a lot but let's see how this one trends. one thing noticeable on the models is the slower progression of the front and trough
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:54 pm

Cmc showing 3 to 6 inches of snow for you RB. precip shield further west however it's rain for the coast. does give New York City Metro about an inch or so on Saturday
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:56 pm

Cold trend to commence? I havent looked at a model in 2 days, but its not like it hasnt happened before.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:52 pm

Cp it's just boring. I want a monster. 12z euro looks to try and phase a coastal but just a tad too late and looks to be rather moisture starved. This is for the 1st I'm talking about. Will keep a watch on Fri sat but down hete I dunno.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Cp it's just boring. I want a monster. 12z euro looks to try and phase a coastal but just a tad too late and looks to be rather moisture starved. This is for the 1st I'm talking about. Will keep a watch on Fri sat but down hete I dunno.
Jman We ALL want a beast and yet some of us have dated them as well hahaha!! Nickel and dime events my man with no blocking. The Cold trend shall commence and I am going to look at maps tonight after a nice semi hiatus of tracking but from what I am gathering so far snow showers in nyc metro to light accumulations interior. Watch it be the biggest storm of the year for rb and the mountain boys co, doc and snowy!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:38 pm

Yeah nickle and dime storms are not really exciting anymore.  If you can give me a 6 inch storm I will gladly take it because that will put me over last year.  Otherwise a bomb or nothing here give it to the guys up north and give me sunshine or t-storms.  Still think its possible though that we get a beast just will it be cold enough?  I distinctly remember a April 8th snowstorm in CT shore where we got like 10 inches when I was a preteen.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:32 am

Inverted trough feature for Sat into Sunday that keeps showing up has def got a little bit of my attention.  Frank and others have pointed this out I believe.  If you all rememeber prev discussions about these features they are very difficult to know where or if they develop until often times as they are happening.  In addition the intensity of these features can be underplayed by modelling esp this far out as well.  The 6Z GFS was most agressive for this for my area of LI.  CMC is furthest south developing it over the DelMarVa and the Euro is in the middle developing in over central and southern NJ.  Keep in mind the GFS and Euro maps from weather bell I posted below are 24hr precip totals, meaning what we get today through Friday is NOT included in these totals. Unfort The Bell does not have this option for the CMC.  At least not that I can find.  

GFS
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_11
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_pr10" />

CMC
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_12
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Cmc_pr10" />

Euro:
[img]*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Ecmwf_11[/img]
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Ecmwf_10" />

If precips rates are low most likely this wont amt to anything, but if they are high a rather quick intense accumulation is def possible somewhere from RI down to the DelMarva and anywhere in between.  Again this would not be wide spread, but rather isolated IF it were to happen at all.  We shall see over the next 24-36hrs of runs if models continue to 1) hint at an inverted trough and 2) if so see if they begin to narrow down where it will set up, or 3) do they lose the idea of an inverted trough all together.  

We Track

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:48 pm

12z gfs
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_us_11
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:51 pm

hr 48 rgem
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 I_nw_r1_EST_2015032612_048
cmc
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 I_nw_g1_EST_2015032612_049
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 I_nw_g1_EST_2015032612_050
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:58 pm

I need 0.2 inches to reach 70, hopefully this does it.
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:03 pm

ukie for sat
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 G1qOlJZ
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:10 pm

18z RGEM says nice coating plus

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 SN_000-048_0000

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Post by Guest Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:22 pm

1 more little surprise would be nice!!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:23 pm

The inverted trough feature for Central and eastern Suffolk countyextending N into CT in particular for the mid day Sat into Early morning Sunday time frame needs to be monitored closely. GFS has been barking about this for awhile. Latest Ukie, although prob overdone, shows a similar set up. CMC has been trending north.(yest morning CMC showed an inverted trough over the Delmarva. Now its into Jersey and another small strip of QPF over eastern LI) Euro however keeps things dry. Short range models picking this up as well. The 4K NAM and the RGEM have it. Looking at temp profiles in the mid layers they look plenty cold, and the surface temps seem to crash from Sat moring into Early morning Sun. For LI a 1-3" or 2-4" from say Nicholes Rd and points east is not set in stone but not out of the question either IMHO of course.

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_6h10" />

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Ukmet_10" />

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Cmc_sn10" />

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Rgem_s10" />

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Hires_10" />

My take home point is if you live in this zone you may want to watch the radar returns come later Sat for the development of snow squalls.

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Rgem_s11" />

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:31 pm

Oh well darn, I am just outside of the box, next
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:48 pm

Uptons take:

AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT AS
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MID-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATION WILL BE
KEY TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE HAS WAVERED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INSPIRING LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT FALL UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH OR
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD...THERE WILL BE AN ISO/SCT THREAT
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
UNDER COMBO OF MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY.
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL HAVE
MAINTAINED AN W TO E GRADIENT OF CHANCE POPS TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TRI-
STATE.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...CAA TONIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IF PRECIP IS
STEADY/HEAVY ENOUGH A MAINLY WET SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT...BUT IF IT IS VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE LIKELY DUE TO
INABILITY TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS 1-2 INCHES OR LESS OF WET
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH A
COATING TO NOTHING FURTHER WEST. IF INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION...OR OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AN
ADVISORY LEVEL WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
LI/CT...WITH A LIGHT COATING TO INCH FARTHER WEST. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:40 pm

@sroc4 wrote:The inverted trough feature for Central and eastern Suffolk countyextending N into CT in particular for the mid day Sat into Early morning Sunday time frame needs to be monitored closely. GFS has been barking about this for awhile. Latest Ukie, although prob overdone, shows a similar set up. CMC has been trending north.(yest morning CMC showed an inverted trough over the Delmarva. Now its into Jersey and another small strip of QPF over eastern LI) Euro however keeps things dry. Short range models picking this up as well. The 4K NAM and the RGEM have it. Looking at temp profiles in the mid layers they look plenty cold, and the surface temps seem to crash from Sat moring into Early morning Sun. For LI a 1-3" or 2-4" from say Nicholes Rd and points east is not set in stone but not out of the question either IMHO of course.

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_6h10" />

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Ukmet_10" />

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Cmc_sn10" />

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Rgem_s10" />

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Hires_10" />

My take home point is if you live in this zone you may want to watch the radar returns come later Sat for the development of snow squalls.

*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 <a href=*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Rgem_s11" />

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:16 am

00z gfs for 31st-1st
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9
*BLOG* 2 Systems To Watch - March 29th & April 1st - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_us_10
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