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Tropical Season 2015

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:18 pm

Hey guys I hope you do not mind I start this thread, its a bit early but hurricane season is about 70 days away and predictions are already out and with the potential of some t-storms possible Thursday I thought it might be a good place to put it separate from the winter weather we are still enduring. Of course if Frank or anyone feels this thread is too early or not necessary feel free to take it down.

This from GWO, I know they are a bit out there but this is what they have to say for the tropical season overall:

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2015/01/prweb12423279.htm
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:24 pm

Two of my favorite places for tropics info are storm2k forum and the myfoxhurricane chat.  Many knowledgable people there and like us most are not pros but sure should be.  There are some tempermental and annoying people there though.

CSU preliminary thoughts from December, should have a new update soon.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/index.php?date=dec14&search=Submit+Query
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 24, 2015 11:26 am

Changed thread title to reflect just the tropical season. Severe Wx events deserve their own thread when the time comes

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 24, 2015 12:01 pm

I was thinking same thing, that would get too jumbled up, wasn't sure how to change it thanks
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:31 pm

Many of you may not understand why I have this thread, and asked for it last year to start. Well I have been through many tropical systems so we are not immune to them by any means. My fear is Sandy was NOT a 1/100 year event and the younger of us could possibly live out something comparable or even worse (who knows when or even IF). I remember Gloria, Bob, several TS and of course Sandy. I also just love to look at these amazing systems even if they are of no threat to our area or anyone for that fact, its not like snow which we hope for. I do not think anyone is wishing or hoping for a hurricane. This is more of a watch and warn if necessary and to learn more about the tropics as they also have effects on our year round weather. I am learning more and more about this on other boards each year and once school is done in May it will be just in time for June 1st tropical season (although in recent years there have been May storms to track). So anyone who wants to talk about the tropics feel free, if not its ok, I am still going to post throughout the season and of course if anything were to threaten our area then we have a place to discuss it (lets hope not).
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:35 pm

I like the tropics too. I just can't get into severe weather. At all.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I like the tropics too. I just can't get into severe weather. At all.

Really you dont like a good t-storm?! I love tracking things that pop at the last second, I will say its annoying how often it does not play out. Hard to predict.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Mar 26, 2015 5:11 am

Great write up jman yes people down this way certainly are treating Sandy as 1/100 year storm and they are fooled especially with Irene the year prior to Sandy. I don't get it the weather has changed up here as far as tropics go. Look forward to tropical updates
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Post by Guest Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:35 pm

Jman you love the tropics because of the possibility of big winds. rabbit rabbit rabbit You should spend a few days at the Mt. Washington weather observatory where 100mph winds are quite common.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:08 pm

Ugg ya got my syo lol, nah I would love it if the wind could howl and not do any damage. I went to beach one time during a TS and you saw me im not exactly light and i leaned into the sustained wind and it literally held me up was awesome, also love to watch the surf but the damage it does to the shore is horrible. Cape Cod will never be like I remember it 20 years ago, went few years back totally washed away beaches sad. And yes we are becoming somewhat of a hotspot for the tropics and we have not had a ACTUAL hurricane or TS landfall in a long time is my concern. Last cat 2 i believe was Bob, boy do I remember that one in CT sheesh. The shore was in ruins, was sad to see all the homes and families displaced there. We cannot control mother nature but we can be prepared. Who knows we could easily go another 100 years without a tropical eent just as easily we could have a huge hit in the next 1 to 10 years. Only one unseen being knows this....mother nature. Ai am hoping for the Easter storm though, that looks like if its strong enough could kick up some good winds, we will see.
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Post by Guest Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:23 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ugg ya got my syo lol, nah I would love it if the wind could howl and not do any damage.  I went to beach one time during a TS and you saw me im not exactly light and i  leaned into the sustained wind and it literally held me up was awesome, also love to watch the surf but the damage it does to the shore is horrible.  Cape Cod will never be like I remember it 20 years ago, went few years back totally washed away beaches sad.  And yes we are becoming somewhat of a hotspot for the tropics and we have not had a ACTUAL hurricane or TS landfall in a long time is my concern. Last cat 2 i believe was Bob, boy do I remember that one in CT sheesh.  The shore was in ruins, was sad to see all the homes and families displaced there.  We cannot control mother nature but we can be prepared.  Who knows we could easily go another 100 years without a tropical eent just as easily we could have a huge hit in the next 1 to 10 years.  Only one unseen being knows this....mother nature.  Ai am hoping for the Easter storm though, that looks like if its strong enough could kick up some good winds, we will see.

I remember catching Striped Bass every cast into ridiculous white water and huge waves about 18 hours before Sandy. I have a different perspective on storms and coastal damage/flooding. Mother nature is in control. Living by the shore or rivers is beautiful, yet eventually going to end badly. Beaches change/wash away and re-form somewhere else. Rivers flood and their channels change frequently. The one I fish has moved by 100 yards in the past 2 years. It's a natural cycle. If you choose to live near the ocean or a river you will eventually lose your house and property. No crying allowed and you should not be able to buy insurance for something you KNOW will happen.

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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:21 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Ugg ya got my syo lol, nah I would love it if the wind could howl and not do any damage.  I went to beach one time during a TS and you saw me im not exactly light and i  leaned into the sustained wind and it literally held me up was awesome, also love to watch the surf but the damage it does to the shore is horrible.  Cape Cod will never be like I remember it 20 years ago, went few years back totally washed away beaches sad.  And yes we are becoming somewhat of a hotspot for the tropics and we have not had a ACTUAL hurricane or TS landfall in a long time is my concern. Last cat 2 i believe was Bob, boy do I remember that one in CT sheesh.  The shore was in ruins, was sad to see all the homes and families displaced there.  We cannot control mother nature but we can be prepared.  Who knows we could easily go another 100 years without a tropical eent just as easily we could have a huge hit in the next 1 to 10 years.  Only one unseen being knows this....mother nature.  Ai am hoping for the Easter storm though, that looks like if its strong enough could kick up some good winds, we will see.

I remember catching Striped Bass every cast into ridiculous white water and huge waves about 18 hours before Sandy.  I have a different perspective on storms and coastal damage/flooding.  Mother nature is in control.  Living by the shore or rivers is beautiful, yet eventually going to end badly.  Beaches change/wash away and re-form somewhere else.   Rivers flood and their channels change frequently.  The one I fish has moved by 100 yards in the past 2 years.  It's a natural cycle.  If you choose to live near the ocean or a river you will eventually lose your house and property.  No crying allowed and you should not be able to buy insurance for something you KNOW will happen.
I agree with this and have a opinion that no one should be allowed to build on a ocean front and especially a barrier island. Its ridiculous to have any sort of permanent settlement on that type of land mass....The towns should be dissolved and infrastructure eliminated and re planted to there natural state with large dunes to protect infrastructure on the interior...Here are some photos after sandy on the Barnaget Peninsula....
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc10
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc11
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc12
Areas with infastructure compared to Island Beach State park, which is practically in its natural state

Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc13

Another point is the ever changing nature of our beaches and inlets, which bulk heading beachfront and tamining inlets is changing its natural corse... Where the inltet broke through in mantalooking in 2012, there was actually a historic inlet, and i believe should have been left open as its a natural occurring waterway...
http://inletsandoutlets.blogspot.com/2013/01/cranberry-inlet-herring-inlet-and.html
Eventually we will lose the battle with nature as it can only be controlled to a point, and im in firm belief we will learn this soon...

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:46 pm

@Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Ugg ya got my syo lol, nah I would love it if the wind could howl and not do any damage.  I went to beach one time during a TS and you saw me im not exactly light and i  leaned into the sustained wind and it literally held me up was awesome, also love to watch the surf but the damage it does to the shore is horrible.  Cape Cod will never be like I remember it 20 years ago, went few years back totally washed away beaches sad.  And yes we are becoming somewhat of a hotspot for the tropics and we have not had a ACTUAL hurricane or TS landfall in a long time is my concern. Last cat 2 i believe was Bob, boy do I remember that one in CT sheesh.  The shore was in ruins, was sad to see all the homes and families displaced there.  We cannot control mother nature but we can be prepared.  Who knows we could easily go another 100 years without a tropical eent just as easily we could have a huge hit in the next 1 to 10 years.  Only one unseen being knows this....mother nature.  Ai am hoping for the Easter storm though, that looks like if its strong enough could kick up some good winds, we will see.

I remember catching Striped Bass every cast into ridiculous white water and huge waves about 18 hours before Sandy.  I have a different perspective on storms and coastal damage/flooding.  Mother nature is in control.  Living by the shore or rivers is beautiful, yet eventually going to end badly.  Beaches change/wash away and re-form somewhere else.   Rivers flood and their channels change frequently.  The one I fish has moved by 100 yards in the past 2 years.  It's a natural cycle.  If you choose to live near the ocean or a river you will eventually lose your house and property.  No crying allowed and you should not be able to buy insurance for something you KNOW will happen.
I agree with this and have a opinion that no one should be allowed to build on a ocean front and especially a barrier island. Its ridiculous to have any sort of permanent settlement on that type of land mass....The towns should be dissolved and infrastructure eliminated and re planted to there natural state with large dunes to protect infrastructure on the interior...Here are some photos after sandy on the Barnaget Peninsula....
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc10
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc11
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc12
Areas with infastructure compared to Island Beach State park, which is practically in its natural state

Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc13

Another point is the ever changing nature of our beaches and inlets, which bulk heading beachfront and tamining inlets is changing its natural corse... Where the inltet broke through in mantalooking in 2012, there was actually a historic inlet, and i believe should have been left open as its a natural occurring waterway...
http://inletsandoutlets.blogspot.com/2013/01/cranberry-inlet-herring-inlet-and.html
Eventually we will lose the battle with nature as it can only be controlled to a point, and im in firm belief we will learn this soon...

Great pictures Ace I have grown up on the shore here my whole life the battle is being lost I have seen a drastic change in our shore line and beaches. The beaches are getting smaller and smaller. Their is nothing being done in point Pleasant Beach no dunes or anything at this point. When we get a heavy rain the town floods infratstructure is outdated and times have changed
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:20 pm

I love the shore but would never live right on it, near enough to go yes but right on it is asking for disaster. April 1st Tropical meterology CSU projections will be out on number of storms and likelihood of areas at risk this year.
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:34 pm

Tropical Season 2015 Nwatl_anomaly_ophi0

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:40 pm

Looks like it could be another close to shore development season with the temps already that high especially up here, that's quite above normal.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:41 pm

Although Cape Verde season does not start for a long time look how much colder it is over that area, who things it will be a la nina, nino or neutral this year?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:56 pm

interesting...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20150318_pa_2015seasonChanges.pdf
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:39 am

Funding cuts for hurricane research

Meteorologists Steaming After Hurricane Research Funding Is Slashed

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:58 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Funding cuts for hurricane research

Meteorologists Steaming After Hurricane Research Funding Is Slashed

There has not been a major hurricane since Sandy. We could be done with them for the next 100 years or so...

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:27 pm

Doh! That's a dumb call!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:44 pm

CMC hr 180-234 has tropical oriented development up east coast 996 off cape hatteras then NE, lol gotta love cmc.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:51 pm

@Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Ugg ya got my syo lol, nah I would love it if the wind could howl and not do any damage.  I went to beach one time during a TS and you saw me im not exactly light and i  leaned into the sustained wind and it literally held me up was awesome, also love to watch the surf but the damage it does to the shore is horrible.  Cape Cod will never be like I remember it 20 years ago, went few years back totally washed away beaches sad.  And yes we are becoming somewhat of a hotspot for the tropics and we have not had a ACTUAL hurricane or TS landfall in a long time is my concern. Last cat 2 i believe was Bob, boy do I remember that one in CT sheesh.  The shore was in ruins, was sad to see all the homes and families displaced there.  We cannot control mother nature but we can be prepared.  Who knows we could easily go another 100 years without a tropical eent just as easily we could have a huge hit in the next 1 to 10 years.  Only one unseen being knows this....mother nature.  Ai am hoping for the Easter storm though, that looks like if its strong enough could kick up some good winds, we will see.

I remember catching Striped Bass every cast into ridiculous white water and huge waves about 18 hours before Sandy.  I have a different perspective on storms and coastal damage/flooding.  Mother nature is in control.  Living by the shore or rivers is beautiful, yet eventually going to end badly.  Beaches change/wash away and re-form somewhere else.   Rivers flood and their channels change frequently.  The one I fish has moved by 100 yards in the past 2 years.  It's a natural cycle.  If you choose to live near the ocean or a river you will eventually lose your house and property.  No crying allowed and you should not be able to buy insurance for something you KNOW will happen.
I agree with this and have a opinion that no one should be allowed to build on a ocean front and especially a barrier island. Its ridiculous to have any sort of permanent settlement on that type of land mass....The towns should be dissolved and infrastructure eliminated and re planted to there natural state with large dunes to protect infrastructure on the interior...Here are some photos after sandy on the Barnaget Peninsula....
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc10
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc11
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc12
Areas with infastructure compared to Island Beach State park, which is practically in its natural state

Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc13

Another point is the ever changing nature of our beaches and inlets, which bulk heading beachfront and tamining inlets is changing its natural corse... Where the inltet broke through in mantalooking in 2012, there was actually a historic inlet, and i believe should have been left open as its a natural occurring waterway...
http://inletsandoutlets.blogspot.com/2013/01/cranberry-inlet-herring-inlet-and.html
Eventually we will lose the battle with nature as it can only be controlled to a point, and im in firm belief we will learn this soon...

I have been saying this for years and have gotten nasty comments back that these barrier Islands should have never been allowed to be built on years ago.They are shifting all the time as a result of currents and storms.Your pictorial proof of this is amazing and spot on.The government pours in billions of taxpayer dollars re-inforcing beaches with sand only to have it wash away in the next big storm.It would be cheaper in the long run to buy everybody out with housesd, knock them all down and let the Island go where it wants to.You can maintain parks like Island Beach so residents can still enjoy the ocean.There is just too much money involved now with shore houses and businesses so I think my proposal will never happen.Billions more will be poured down the rathole the next 50 years.
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Post by Quietace Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:32 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Ugg ya got my syo lol, nah I would love it if the wind could howl and not do any damage.  I went to beach one time during a TS and you saw me im not exactly light and i  leaned into the sustained wind and it literally held me up was awesome, also love to watch the surf but the damage it does to the shore is horrible.  Cape Cod will never be like I remember it 20 years ago, went few years back totally washed away beaches sad.  And yes we are becoming somewhat of a hotspot for the tropics and we have not had a ACTUAL hurricane or TS landfall in a long time is my concern. Last cat 2 i believe was Bob, boy do I remember that one in CT sheesh.  The shore was in ruins, was sad to see all the homes and families displaced there.  We cannot control mother nature but we can be prepared.  Who knows we could easily go another 100 years without a tropical eent just as easily we could have a huge hit in the next 1 to 10 years.  Only one unseen being knows this....mother nature.  Ai am hoping for the Easter storm though, that looks like if its strong enough could kick up some good winds, we will see.

I remember catching Striped Bass every cast into ridiculous white water and huge waves about 18 hours before Sandy.  I have a different perspective on storms and coastal damage/flooding.  Mother nature is in control.  Living by the shore or rivers is beautiful, yet eventually going to end badly.  Beaches change/wash away and re-form somewhere else.   Rivers flood and their channels change frequently.  The one I fish has moved by 100 yards in the past 2 years.  It's a natural cycle.  If you choose to live near the ocean or a river you will eventually lose your house and property.  No crying allowed and you should not be able to buy insurance for something you KNOW will happen.
I agree with this and have a opinion that no one should be allowed to build on a ocean front and especially a barrier island. Its ridiculous to have any sort of permanent settlement on that type of land mass....The towns should be dissolved and infrastructure eliminated and re planted to there natural state with large dunes to protect infrastructure on the interior...Here are some photos after sandy on the Barnaget Peninsula....
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc10
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc11
Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc12
Areas with infastructure compared to Island Beach State park, which is practically in its natural state

Tropical Season 2015 Nj_loc13

Another point is the ever changing nature of our beaches and inlets, which bulk heading beachfront and tamining inlets is changing its natural corse... Where the inltet broke through in mantalooking in 2012, there was actually a historic inlet, and i believe should have been left open as its a natural occurring waterway...
http://inletsandoutlets.blogspot.com/2013/01/cranberry-inlet-herring-inlet-and.html
Eventually we will lose the battle with nature as it can only be controlled to a point, and im in firm belief we will learn this soon...

I have been saying this for years and have gotten nasty comments back that these barrier Islands should have never been allowed to be built on years ago.They are shifting all the time as a result of currents and storms.Your pictorial proof of this is amazing and spot on.The government pours in billions of taxpayer dollars re-inforcing beaches with sand only to have it wash away in the next big storm.It would be cheaper in the long run to buy everybody out with housesd, knock them all down and let the Island go where it wants to.You can maintain parks like Island Beach so residents can still enjoy the ocean.There is just too much money involved now with shore houses and businesses so I think my proposal will never happen.Billions more will be poured down the rathole the next 50 years.
Beach Replenishment is functionally obsolete and a massive repetitive expense to tax payers. This is from a NJ.com article....which states the cost of beach replenishment that will be done here....
"The projects are slated for the northern Ocean County peninsula from Point Pleasant Beach to Berkeley Township at an anticipated cost of between $135 million and $145 million; all of Long Beach Island at a cost of $128 million and Absecon Island from Ventnor to Longport in Atlantic County for $35 million."

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Post by docstox12 Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:52 pm

Ryan, those last two pictures in your posting say it all. They are totally comitted to sand replenishment now basically forever as long as those buildings stand on the barrier Islands.
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