Tropical Season 2015
+15
billg315
Math23x7
Snow88
snow247
gigs68
algae888
stdmk04
amugs
Dtone
docstox12
Dunnzoo
Quietace
skinsfan1177
Frank_Wx
jmanley32
19 posters
Page 5 of 8 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Re: Tropical Season 2015
I agree Frank, what about the area by Bermuda? And how come u not mention the 1-3 inches rain coming tomorrow, usually you have a scroll. Nice pic gangsta lol.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Danny is now a category 2, almost 3 with 105mph winds and 976mb. Big time intensity increase. Keep an eye on it, classic looking tight system wind field only out 70 miles. HH out today, could change track and intensity forecast, likely will and models will probably start to pick up on its intensity and track because as of right now current position on models do not even match current actualy intensity. Which I find funny.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: Tropical Season 2015
It should start weakening later today, Danny's moving into a higher shear/ drier environment over the next 12 hours. just have to keep a eye on what models do when whatever's left with danny emerges into a more favorable environment near the bahamasjmanley32 wrote:Danny is now a category 2, almost 3 with 105mph winds and 976mb. Big time intensity increase. Keep an eye on it, classic looking tight system wind field only out 70 miles. HH out today, could change track and intensity forecast, likely will and models will probably start to pick up on its intensity and track because as of right now current position on models do not even match current actualy intensity. Which I find funny.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 26
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: Tropical Season 2015
URRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Yep category 3, ace I think although he will hit shear its not a large area, and being now a cat 3 may be able to overcome some of it and live enough to make it into the area that's of more concern. Regardless of our area I have interests in FL etc. Plus I just like to watch the tropics, hey not much else to do weatherwise at this time.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Will be interesting to see how he reacts after this dry/shear area is passed.Heading into more favorable waters and things may get interesting.
Agree with Jman....this makes things interesting around here during this pretty hum drum time weatherwise.
Agree with Jman....this makes things interesting around here during this pretty hum drum time weatherwise.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8472
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
This is true, the circulation it self will get torn apart with its convection blown off by the shear, but whatever is left of the circulation that emerges into that more favorable environment could regenerate. That needs to be watcheddocstox12 wrote:Will be interesting to see how he reacts after this dry/shear area is passed.Heading into more favorable waters and things may get interesting.
Agree with Jman....this makes things interesting around here during this pretty hum drum time weatherwise.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 26
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: Tropical Season 2015
danny is now a weak tropical storm and is expected to weaken into an open wave in 48 hours before dissipating near or over Hispaniola or cuba with little impact to islands or U.S. coast except for much needed rain in the carib.
nhc forecast...FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.5N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.5N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.2N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 21.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
nhc forecast...FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.5N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.5N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.2N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 21.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Yep forget Danny, though could seee him pop again but I doubt it. On to Erika, 90% chance development, CMC bad senario very close to US in 5 day, i know in winter and fall has tendancy to blow up LP way to much what about tropics? FWIW JB seems to think to be Erika could be a redo of Bob. Not a good thing for us up here. But how he can make that idea off a system that hasnt developed yet who knows, CMC is disconcerting though, yet GFS has nothing and Euro does show a recurve. We will not know anything until we have a developed storm and recon data to support the models. And even then the models handled Danny terrribly.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Danny has just about dissipated NHC has given the last advisory as of 11 a.m. hurricane really fell apart much more quickly than modeled. Although there are two systems following Danny they are probably going to have the same outcomes as the overall environment for the tropics seem highly unfavorable.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Ummmmm my eyes almost popped out my head when I saw the drastic change from nothing yesterday 12z Euro to this! Yikes!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Max wind gusts wow, have see if the Euro is trending to having this explode. It stalls at this point so I am not sure where it would go plus its in fantasy land, Erika is moving much faster than Danny did and bigger and TS advisories up for islands already and in 5 days it will be off FL coast. If it were not for a 3 day stall on Euro we would have better idea where it would go after this, someone can probably explain to me if its got a OTS escape, and what stalls it on this run?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
And as we know the Euro tends to downplay intensity, but we had a big storm a few weeks ago go poof, so lets see if this stays on the runs and it it is a OTS solution or a big threat to US coast. Going straight off the Euro run.... not good. If the Euro keeps messing up I wonder how it will do for the winter, remember Euro had Irene and Sandy pretty near spot on a week out so I think the entire EC (obviously SE more so) need to keep a close eye on this girl.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Jim Cantore
Given speed, expect TS watches today for Leeward Islands. EVEN THOUGH MUCH COULD CHANGE past 72hrs USA coastline pay attention 2 #Erika 4now
Given speed, expect TS watches today for Leeward Islands. EVEN THOUGH MUCH COULD CHANGE past 72hrs USA coastline pay attention 2 #Erika 4now
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
This will get interesting...
944MB bomb here peeps - we need to definitely watch her - another Biag!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (AND
TUESDAY) WITH A POSSIBLE APPROACH NEAR E CENTRAL FL OR THE ADJACENT
ATLC WATERS FROM ERIKA OFF TO OUR SE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE RECURVATURE EAST OF THE FL EAST COAST WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION ECMWF INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC PRESSURE
DROPPING TO BELOW 990 MBS AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE SFC LOW ~1013 MBS...WHICH IS 10 MBS WEAKER THAN IT CURRENT
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS IN
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH
THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THE TWO MODELS ARE NOT THAT DISSIMILAR WHEN
THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO FL...BOTH KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
AREA...FOR THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS AT LEAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CLOSE TO GFS MOS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND INDICATE
SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR SUN-MON WITH POSSIBLE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST
CENTRAL SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING THE
WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
944MB bomb here peeps - we need to definitely watch her - another Biag!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (AND
TUESDAY) WITH A POSSIBLE APPROACH NEAR E CENTRAL FL OR THE ADJACENT
ATLC WATERS FROM ERIKA OFF TO OUR SE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE RECURVATURE EAST OF THE FL EAST COAST WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION ECMWF INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC PRESSURE
DROPPING TO BELOW 990 MBS AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE SFC LOW ~1013 MBS...WHICH IS 10 MBS WEAKER THAN IT CURRENT
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS IN
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH
THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THE TWO MODELS ARE NOT THAT DISSIMILAR WHEN
THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO FL...BOTH KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
AREA...FOR THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS AT LEAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CLOSE TO GFS MOS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND INDICATE
SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR SUN-MON WITH POSSIBLE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST
CENTRAL SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING THE
WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Copycat mugs lol. I beat u to it. It's actually 937mb according to wxbell which is insane so is 944. I recall a run like this with Sandy 928mb early in start. Things very incertain. That ridge will play a big factor as if it's that strong it will probably b able to push north wetter or not it has a east exit won't know till later in week and need see if euro run just a hiccup. I love how nhc says euro sub 990 umm ya think lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
I'm just waiting for Frank to give his insight on Erika.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Whatever she does in future at this time is looking ragged.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
A lot working AGAINST Erika coming up this way. Will detail later tonight.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Ok will b interested in your blog.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Well that Euro solution came and went, barely a wave now into GOM. Wow so I guess last night was a major fluke in the runs.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Have to wait and watch the trends..too far out to model hug...all I know is I'm getting the last week of vaca in down the shore before anything heads this way!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Jman read my post from yesterday. Conditions aren't conducive for major hurricanes this year the main reason being the strong El Nino and the dry air over Africa coast. There is a strong ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough in the Caribbean which is causing the systems to shear. Why some mets are hugging the models and not looking at the data it's beyond me. What I'm learning from Frank and others on here and also other Mets is to put more weight on the data, what is actually going on in the atmosphere at the moment and not on what the models are saying esp. 5 days out. With that said anything is possible but unlikely to have a major hurricane this yearjmanley32 wrote:Well that Euro solution came and went, barely a wave now into GOM. Wow so I guess last night was a major fluke in the runs.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Tropical Season 2015
Florida and SE coast residents on the lookout
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Tropical Season 2015
AL Danny became a major for a short time. We have had a lot more action than I expected though u could b right.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tropical Season 2015
I imagine we won't have a good idea on where this is really going to track until Thursday or Friday. And I never put too much stock in early projections of strength because they tend to fluctuate and I've seen these things unexpectedly blow up at the last minute over the Gulf Stream or weaken and fall to shreds quickly after hitting the islands -- and sometimes both. Just have to keep an eye on it for now.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Page 5 of 8 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|