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Tropical Season 2015

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Post by Quietace Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Danny is now a category 2, almost 3 with 105mph winds and 976mb.  Big time intensity increase.  Keep an eye on it, classic looking tight system wind field only out 70 miles. HH out today, could change track and intensity forecast, likely will and models will probably start to pick up on its intensity and track because as of right now current position on models do not even match current actualy intensity.  Which I find funny.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Rainbo10
It should start weakening later today, Danny's moving into a higher shear/ drier environment over the next 12 hours. just have to keep a eye on what models do when whatever's left with danny emerges into a more favorable environment near the bahamas

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Post by amugs Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:25 pm

URRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.

No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:05 pm

Yep category 3, ace I think although he will hit shear its not a large area, and being now a cat 3 may be able to overcome some of it and live enough to make it into the area that's of more concern. Regardless of our area I have interests in FL etc. Plus I just like to watch the tropics, hey not much else to do weatherwise at this time.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:47 pm

Will be interesting to see how he reacts after this dry/shear area is passed.Heading into more favorable waters and things may get interesting.

Agree with Jman....this makes things interesting around here during this pretty hum drum time weatherwise.
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Post by Quietace Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:23 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Will be interesting to see how he reacts after this dry/shear area is passed.Heading into more favorable waters and things may get interesting.

Agree with Jman....this makes things interesting around here during this pretty hum drum time weatherwise.
This is true, the circulation it self will get torn apart with its convection blown off by the shear, but whatever is left of the circulation that emerges into that more favorable environment could regenerate. That needs to be watched

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Post by algae888 Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:15 pm

danny is now a weak tropical storm and is expected to weaken into an open wave in 48 hours before dissipating near or over Hispaniola or cuba with little impact to islands or U.S. coast except for much needed rain in the carib.
nhc forecast...FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.5N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.5N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.2N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 21.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:29 pm

Yep forget Danny, though could seee him pop again but I doubt it. On to Erika, 90% chance development, CMC bad senario very close to US in 5 day, i know in winter and fall has tendancy to blow up LP way to much what about tropics? FWIW JB seems to think to be Erika could be a redo of Bob. Not a good thing for us up here. But how he can make that idea off a system that hasnt developed yet who knows, CMC is disconcerting though, yet GFS has nothing and Euro does show a recurve. We will not know anything until we have a developed storm and recon data to support the models. And even then the models handled Danny terrribly.
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Post by algae888 Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:43 pm

Danny has just about dissipated NHC has given the last advisory as of 11 a.m. hurricane really fell apart much more quickly than modeled. Although there are two systems following Danny they are probably going to have the same outcomes as the overall environment for the tropics seem highly unfavorable.
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Post by snow247 Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:14 am

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 02405710

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 98l_tr10

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 11892010
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:21 am

Ummmmm my eyes almost popped out my head when I saw the drastic change from nothing yesterday 12z Euro to this! Yikes!

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Euro_910
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:25 am

Max wind gusts wow, have see if the Euro is trending to having this explode. It stalls at this point so I am not sure where it would go plus its in fantasy land, Erika is moving much faster than Danny did and bigger and TS advisories up for islands already and in 5 days it will be off FL coast. If it were not for a 3 day stall on Euro we would have better idea where it would go after this, someone can probably explain to me if its got a OTS escape, and what stalls it on this run?

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Euro_e10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:55 am

And as we know the Euro tends to downplay intensity, but we had a big storm a few weeks ago go poof, so lets see if this stays on the runs and it it is a OTS solution or a big threat to US coast. Going straight off the Euro run.... not good. If the Euro keeps messing up I wonder how it will do for the winter, remember Euro had Irene and Sandy pretty near spot on a week out so I think the entire EC (obviously SE more so) need to keep a close eye on this girl.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:18 am

Jim Cantore

Given speed, expect TS watches today for Leeward Islands. EVEN THOUGH MUCH COULD CHANGE past 72hrs USA coastline pay attention 2 ‪#‎Erika‬ 4now
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Post by amugs Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:43 am

This will get interesting...

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Post-1711-0-33897400-1440502234

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Post-1711-0-88558600-1440502241

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Post-1711-0-21969500-1440502249

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Post-1711-0-20857200-1440502257

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Post-1711-0-25520500-1440502264

944MB bomb here peeps - we need to definitely watch her - another Biag!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (AND
TUESDAY) WITH A POSSIBLE APPROACH NEAR E CENTRAL FL OR THE ADJACENT
ATLC WATERS FROM ERIKA OFF TO OUR SE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE RECURVATURE EAST OF THE FL EAST COAST WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION ECMWF INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC PRESSURE
DROPPING TO BELOW 990 MBS AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE SFC LOW ~1013 MBS...WHICH IS 10 MBS WEAKER THAN IT CURRENT
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS IN
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH
THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THE TWO MODELS ARE NOT THAT DISSIMILAR WHEN
THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO FL...BOTH KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
AREA...FOR THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS AT LEAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CLOSE TO GFS MOS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND INDICATE
SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR SUN-MON WITH POSSIBLE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST
CENTRAL SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING THE
WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM....VOLKMER

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:04 am

Copycat mugs lol. I beat u to it. It's actually 937mb according to wxbell which is insane so is 944. I recall a run like this with Sandy 928mb early in start. Things very incertain. That ridge will play a big factor as if it's that strong it will probably b able to push north wetter or not it has a east exit won't know till later in week and need see if euro run just a hiccup. I love how nhc says euro sub 990 umm ya think lol
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:06 am

I'm just waiting for Frank to give his insight on Erika.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:20 am

Whatever she does in future at this time is looking ragged.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:31 am

A lot working AGAINST Erika coming up this way. Will detail later tonight.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:55 am

Ok will b interested in your blog.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:58 pm

Well that Euro solution came and went, barely a wave now into GOM. Wow so I guess last night was a major fluke in the runs.
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:26 pm

Have to wait and watch the trends..too far out to model hug...all I know is I'm getting the last week of vaca in down the shore before anything heads this way!

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Post by algae888 Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Well that Euro solution came and went, barely a wave now into GOM.  Wow so I guess last night was a major fluke in the runs.
Jman read my post from yesterday. Conditions aren't conducive for major hurricanes this year the main reason being the strong El Nino and the dry air over Africa coast. There is a strong ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough in the Caribbean which is causing the systems to shear. Why some mets are hugging the models and not looking at the data it's beyond me. What I'm learning from Frank and others on here and also other Mets is to put more weight on the data, what is actually going on in the atmosphere at the moment and not on what the models are saying esp. 5 days out. With that said anything is possible but unlikely to have a major hurricane this year
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Post by amugs Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:56 pm

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 5 Storm_05

Florida and SE coast residents on the lookout

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:18 pm

AL Danny became a major for a short time. We have had a lot more action than I expected though u could b right.
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Post by billg315 Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:22 pm

I imagine we won't have a good idea on where this is really going to track until Thursday or Friday. And I never put too much stock in early projections of strength because they tend to fluctuate and I've seen these things unexpectedly blow up at the last minute over the Gulf Stream or weaken and fall to shreds quickly after hitting the islands -- and sometimes both. Just have to keep an eye on it for now.
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