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Tropical Season 2015

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:23 pm

@amugs wrote:Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Storm_05

Florida and SE coast residents on the lookout
who knows where she goes. And she weakened a bit at 5pm. My thinking is Frank's blog is gonna say she gets killed off like danny.
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Post by algae888 Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:25 pm

11pm update on erika from nhc...
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast DiscussionHome   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   000 WTNT45 KNHC 260254 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 Both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika and found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006 mb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle. The low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited thunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite imagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is generously kept at 35 kt. The intensity forecast continues to be highly uncertain. Erika has a large cyclonic envelope, and this is a favorable factor for the cyclone to strengthen. However, SHIPS model forecasts a hostile west-northwesterly shear over the cyclone and, in fact, it only strengthens Erika a little bit at the end of the forecast period. This coincides with the solution of the GFS and the ECMWF global models which either weaken the cyclone or show little change in strength. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus, and shows a modest strengthening beyond 3 days. By then, the cyclone is expected to be near the Bahamas where the environment could be a little more favorable for intensification. However, I will not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the the northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile. Erika is embedded within the easterly flow south of a moderate subtropical ridge which is covering the western Atlantic. This pattern will likely continue to steer Erika between the west and west-northwest at about 15 kt for the next 2 to 3 days. As the cyclone reaches the western edge of the ridge in the area of the Bahamas, the cyclone is then expected to decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus.
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Post by amugs Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:54 am

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 CNTA4WRVEAETozj

She looks to get sheared a bit but keeps just enough convection so once she makes it to the edge of the ridge she survives and intensifies by this chart. Next few days as usual will tell the tale. At lest it is something of weather news to track here.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:45 am

mugs look at her gigaqntic blob on convection, not going to get eaten up with that big a size. Amazing FROM ITS BAD LOOK LAST NIGHT, STARTTING TO LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE WITHOUT AN EYE.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:02 pm

lets hope the cmc is wrong, that's at least a cat 2 headed dead for NJ and NYC. Run not done, yes lala land and IS CMC but still closer to Euro run and all models are developing a hurricane, track is just uncertain. Wonder what Euro will show.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Cmc_8_10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:09 pm

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Cmc_8_12
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:10 pm

Weird last few frames it stalls and then looks to start east, hey its the wild and crazy CMC, doesn't handle tropics too well.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:29 pm

Euro in line with cmc u til obx where then heads ots. That's a bit concerning they both agree up to that pt.
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Post by amugs Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:06 pm

Euro rapidly intensifies her to a CAT 2 as she heads to the OBX after grazog Flroida a dthen takes here out to sea.Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 RI4EL3F

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Post by amugs Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:09 pm

Lets hope she does't follow the path of Irene - albeit Irene was not as BAD as it could have been but if this puppy is cat 2 and the water temps are running warm fueling her she may undercut the ridge , that is what will be interesting to see. Just to close for comfort if she makes it to OBX i my book.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 At201109

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:33 pm

Yep I agree mugs. And Imo cat 2 plus and u Der cutting the ridge not impossible. Shear is trying get her but llc and ulc still not taken apart. I think she is big enough to hold on and both cmc and euro too close for comfort. It would likely b way stronger than ts Irene and winds would b a much bigger issue. But it's all hersay. I think frank will probably put another blog out I do not see this stopping being a threat by this weekend. It's wetter or not she gets that escape hatch. I think 5pm nhc cone shifts east of fl and more northwest. Not a good senario there
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:35 pm

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:36 pm

All points for most part turn north. Jeeze hwrf takes well east of fl and has as a 146 kt 900mb winds hurricane. Headed nw that's scary.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:50 pm

Hey gang, since Frank started a thread for Erika, let's move tracking talk over there and leave this one for general discussion.....

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Post by algae888 Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:58 am

New tropical wave coming off of Africa here is National Hurricane Center update this morning

1. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized near a low pressure area located just off the coast of Africa about 150 miles west of Conakry, Guinea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward and then west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
The cmc and gfdl have a cat 5 hurricane hitting South Carolina in 10 days. tongue Arrow Wink
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:32 pm

@algae888 wrote:New tropical wave coming off of Africa here is National Hurricane Center update this morning

1. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized near a low pressure area located just off the coast of Africa about 150 miles west of Conakry, Guinea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward and then west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
The cmc and gfdl have a cat 5 hurricane hitting South Carolina in 10 days. tongue  Arrow  Wink

Haha, yeah you got me I looked, if anything cmc has erika regenerate and hot cape code in 10 days, that wave doesnt even show up. It is further north though which makes more likely to miss islands but also to recurve quick.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:08 am

And now we have TS Fred....pic courtesy of Tristate weather

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 11903810

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:44 am

NHC outlook

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 14484410


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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:27 pm

I think that's way to far north to make a threat to the us.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:27 pm

Moving slow that's for sure.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:34 pm

Good ol' CMC has the remnants of Erika blowing up into a hurricane and hit OBX and then close to the area, ya ok. However there is a LLC off the SE coast, may need to b watched as it is remnants of Erika. Another wave with 40% chance off Africa in the 5 day outlook by NHC. Fred a fish gonner.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:55 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Good ol' CMC has the remnants of Erika blowing up into a hurricane and hit OBX and then close to the area, ya ok.  However there is a LLC off the SE coast, may need to b watched as it is remnants of Erika.  Another wave with 40% chance off Africa in the 5 day outlook by NHC.  Fred a fish gonner.

Check what I wrote in the Observations section.  Great minds think alike. Ill move it here too as I too, often skip over the observation thread because honestly 90 and hazy hot humid is BOOORRIINNGG.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:58 pm

(Moved this from the other thread) Just because Im bored.  Since Erika is no longer a tropical system I will place this here rather than the Tropical thread since it is a Sept observation.

As you can see Erika's remnants are exiting the northern Georgia coast.  She still has a nice low level circulation(LLC) that you can see quite clearly on the RGB Sat loop.  

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Rgb-animated

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 <a href=Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Image_10" />



You may notice that to the east of that LLC is decent convection.
 
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Wv_lalo-animated


That is because there is decent divergence aloft to the east of the LLC; however; the divergence is only on the eastern flank.  In addition there is 30 Kt windshear right over top.  There is no chance that this redevelops back into a tropical system at this time, but if it sits off the coast and the wind shear drops some(I havent looked at this yet) you might see the NHC give this a small percent at redevelopment.  

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Wg8dvg
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Wg8shr

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 08, 2015 5:30 pm

Jman for you
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Post-357-0-91918800-1441743021

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Post by algae888 Tue Sep 08, 2015 5:52 pm

@amugs wrote:Jman for you
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 6 Post-357-0-91918800-1441743021
Mugs i love that blue line on the map. Thats at 18z getting close baby!
Cant wait till this thread closes Very Happy
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