NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tropical Season 2015

Page 7 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by amugs Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:39 pm

Al excellent point and ...............there is a massive storm for the Siberia area and Arctic region progged for the 12th -16th timeframe that will help with this. Little by little Al.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12157
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 09, 2015 3:57 pm

Euro has been fairley consistent with something percolating in the BOC area and into the GOM by the weekend into early next week,

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:41 am

2. A large area of disturbed weather extending from the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico northeastward across Florida is associated with a
broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level trough. This
system is expected to move northeastward and spread heavy rains over
portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two. A low
pressure area could form over the southwestern Atlantic this
weekend, and conditions there could become a little more conducive
for tropical or subtropical cyclone development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent


This is what I was mentioning shows on all models possibly organizing a bit.

Down in lala land of 06z GFS there is a hurricane that comes straight up from deep tropics into east side of FL at 384 hrs and setup looks a bit like Sandy....Yes am aware its 384 hrs not putting any stance in it. Just thought it was interesting to note that in October.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:43 am

http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/facebook/facebook1.png
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:52 pm

Floyd...mom tells me stories about that storm.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by amugs Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:28 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Floyd...mom tells me stories about that storm.
Are you fn kidding me??!!÷
I can remember it like either was yesterday.
Holy Mother of rain did it pour and winds were howling, not like Sandy but I remember hours of winds and torrential rains here in bc of ne nj. Flooding was historic and then Irene hit.


Last edited by amugs on Sat Sep 19, 2015 10:43 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : TYPO"S)

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12157
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by docstox12 Sat Sep 19, 2015 7:19 am

http://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome

My 94 year old Mom remembers this well living in the City and having relatives in Fairfield-Bridgeport Connecticut.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by amugs Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:33 pm

Next week we may see things percolating in the Carribean - look sto be low shear and a good fetch/slug of moisture incoming to spawn a cyclone - look at the ensembles - interesting especially POOO2!! YIKES - to far out though as this stage heck even within 48 hours - !
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 F348

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12157
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 21, 2015 1:33 pm

@amugs wrote:Next week we may see things percolating in the Carribean - look sto be low shear and a good fetch/slug of moisture incoming to spawn a cyclone - look at the ensembles - interesting especially POOO2!! YIKES - to far out though as this stage heck even within 48 hours - !
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 F348

Wow, that's a scary storm smack over us, some others hinting at similar tracks from gulf back into atlantic and up coast, is that the GFS ensembles? I wish that wxbell wasn't so hards to navigate or so slow to put up the ensembles.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 21, 2015 1:34 pm

As I said October can be a bad month, especially for us even if it isn't a tropical system, look at Sandy, even a noreaster can be really bad. We shall see.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:10 am

Here is the possible system that's going to meander around for about a week what it looks like on models before possibly strengthening and heading into the area, if I am correct that this is the system the models are sowing around the 28/29th.

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are
marginally conducive for development, and this system could possibly
acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of
days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:30 am

Wow rarely do you see the Euro be so bullish with a system of 949mb in tropics in the 10day, conservative model goes ape, imagine if that trecked to the US?! Ok Math, when was the last time if ever a cyclone make a b-line from that position to the US coastline, or even this area? Something to watch even if no threat to land as that be a doozy for Atlantic if Euro is first to have it.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Euro_910
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:58 am

We have TD 11, looks like could be our weekend threat, upper level winds do not look great but so far it has defied the expectations and is now forecast to become a TS Euro ensembles go buck wild and a few have a cat 3+ hitting the area but around the 7th, way too far off and probably unlikely but I see the possibility of a TS like system heading here weeks end. If more euro ensembles come on board then I would worry. Any no there are no hurricane warnings for us, NHC made a booboo opps

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 08523710
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by amugs Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:12 am

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 11L_tracks_latest

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12157
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:23 am

Ya and hwrf and gfdl make this a hurricane.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Hwrf10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:06 am

Couldn't find a 4 panel image for GFDL on wxbell, and these are old runs, GFDL better than HWRF but both of them similar IMO has to be watched. JB FWIW says this will likely overperform and be named (NHC has that progged by 2am tomorrow morning, then weakening but these models beg to differ.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Gfdl10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:09 am

Holy Toledo on the 850 mb winds, who gonna have me come to LI? Or I';ll just go to my parents in CT if this actually happened, I read somewhere this could get pushed further west too, no not expecting this but when was the last time one of these two verified AND in this area.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Gfdl_m10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:16 am

Updated sgetti with all ensembles, plenty still threaten the immediate area, also the current track now has it holding post-tropical storm strength. batten down the hatches, kidding, in 3 days if this still holds then we can take it more seriously. Joaquin would be its name.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 At201510
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:17 am

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Td_11_10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by algae888 Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:03 am

I just don't get it!  hurricane Patricia a cat 5 hurricane located just off the western Mexican coast with winds of 185mph and not a mention in this thread. satellite  view is awesome. hurricanes do not get much stronger than this one. mexico is about to get crushed. if this storm was on the east coast there would be 40 pages of posts. makes me wonder about the motives of hurricane lovers. do they really love hurricanes? or just land falling hurricanes in the metro nyc area that do enormous damage.
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 053225W5_NL_sm


Last edited by algae888 on Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:14 am; edited 1 time in total
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by algae888 Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:11 am

12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 16.5°N 105.3°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 892 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by algae888 Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:19 am

WOW!!
HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane.  Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday.  
The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone.  Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.

A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.

No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory
for Patricia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening.  Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect
the area.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  160 KT 185 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND
36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by algae888 Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:27 am

really feel for the Mexican people in this area. I am praying for them and that I would never have to experience something like this where I live.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by algae888 Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:37 am

we now have a 200mph hurricane with a pressure of 880mb
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.5 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area this afternoon or evening.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 200 mph (325
km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane
on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).


algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:20 am

Actually, the remnants of Patricia is what we'll deal with late next week. It'll phase with northern stream energy and cut a strong low to our west.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 7 Empty Re: Tropical Season 2015

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 7 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum