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Tropical Season 2015

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billg315
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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:51 am

Just for archive purposes wow....
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 2015ep10Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 2015ep10
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 2015EP20_4KMIRIMG_201510231100
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 2015EP20_MIIWVRGB_201510230323

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Post by Dtone Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:24 am

I couldn't believe it this thing strengthened 100mph in 24 hrs?
200mph, gusts to 245!

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Post by RJB8525 Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:49 pm

The places hit will be almost wiped off of the map..will be hitting real soon
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:38 pm

Rb what's devastating about this hurricane is the whole eastern side is going to make landfall its going to be a disaster
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:28 pm

I do not know the validity of this observation site but very interesting to say the least
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:50 pm

Is the hurricane going to have any impact in our area with moisture
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:52 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Is the hurricane going to have any impact in our area with moisture
read Frank's posy on the LR about how it gets absorbed and forms a cutter ir Apps runner with rain

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Post by Radz Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:50 am

@amugs wrote:I do not know the validity of this observation site but very interesting to say the least
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Wow 185 mph sustained, max gust 210mph if verified...
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:17 pm

Heh had to look for this thread, this has been one heck of a odd start to Nov. Not one but two areas of interest, the one headed towar PR the more likely. High temps and still tropical wx.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 Two_at10
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Heh had to look for this thread, this has been one heck of a odd start to Nov. Not one but two areas of interest, the one headed towar PR the more likely.  High temps and still tropical wx.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 Two_at10

That map is from Wednesday, I believe they are pretty much writing them both off now.... too hostile of a wind pattern for development...

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:30 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Heh had to look for this thread, this has been one heck of a odd start to Nov. Not one but two areas of interest, the one headed towar PR the more likely.  High temps and still tropical wx.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 Two_at10

That map is from Wednesday, I believe they are pretty much writing them both off now.... too hostile of a wind pattern for development...

Janet that is the current 5day prob map. Here is the 2 day probabilities:
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 Two_atl_2d0

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:35 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Heh had to look for this thread, this has been one heck of a odd start to Nov. Not one but two areas of interest, the one headed towar PR the more likely.  High temps and still tropical wx.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 Two_at10

That map is from Wednesday, I believe they are pretty much writing them both off now.... too hostile of a wind pattern for development...

No it isn't I just pulled it now, look at the time Fri 1pm.

Nonetheless, its still something to see anything at all being marked this late in season though its not unheard of.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:06 pm

Ahhhhhaaaa brain dead me, saw "Wed." and didn't see the date! (Can you tell it is Friday afternoon? Can't wait to get out of work!) Hurricane season does run til November 30th, so it is still possible although unlikely...

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:42 am

No threat to US but Bahamas getting TS now Kate, We well exceeded expectations this year on total storms. Next year should be very active. And Kate is taking classic Nov. historical track.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 8 Kate10

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:29 pm

Kate is a minimal hurricane and racing at 40mph to the NE. Wow that's light speed for a hurricane. Looks like LR GFS and CMC are showing yet another development around 10day in similar area. Season just doesn't wanna quit.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Dec 02, 2015 3:25 am

This turned out to be an exceptionally strange season, active with quite a few storms and some major which is pretty much unprescedented for a very strong el nino such as we're in as far as I know. Typically shear is too strong to allow much development.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Dec 02, 2015 3:31 am

Another note, despite slamming the pacific Mexican coast as a Category 5, Patricia did mere millions in damage and killed an estimated less than 10 people. I wonder, how? A cyclone of that intensity... if Sandy as a 75-90mph post tropical cyclone hitting the NJ coast did 76 billion in damage and killed over 200, I wouldnt even want to imagine what a storm of increasing magnitude would do, has to make you wonder if continuing to develop coastal areas so densely is such a good idea...
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:34 pm

Season is over, unless anyone wants me to post on the coming year we can lock this up and open a new one in April but from what I am hearing next year will be a doozy for the Atlantic much like the Pacific was this year. Can you imagine a Patrica in the midatlantic dear god!
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Post by Dtone Wed Dec 02, 2015 3:36 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Another note, despite slamming the pacific Mexican coast as a Category 5, Patricia did mere millions in damage and killed an estimated less than 10 people. I wonder, how? A cyclone of that intensity... if Sandy as a 75-90mph post tropical cyclone hitting the NJ coast did 76 billion in damage and killed over 200, I wouldnt even want to imagine what a storm of increasing magnitude would do, has to make you wonder if continuing to develop coastal areas so densely is such a good idea...

So true..Patricia wasn't that large and the strongest part made landfall in a sparsely populated area. (not that's any consolation to the ppl it did hit).
It also was pretty much was ripped apart immediately after landfall.

Sandy's surge was more than its wind speed would indicate b/c of its large size and ridiculously large fetch of TS+ force winds over the ocean.

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Post by Quietace Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:09 pm

@Dtone wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Another note, despite slamming the pacific Mexican coast as a Category 5, Patricia did mere millions in damage and killed an estimated less than 10 people. I wonder, how? A cyclone of that intensity... if Sandy as a 75-90mph post tropical cyclone hitting the NJ coast did 76 billion in damage and killed over 200, I wouldnt even want to imagine what a storm of increasing magnitude would do, has to make you wonder if continuing to develop coastal areas so densely is such a good idea...

So true..Patricia wasn't that large and the strongest part made landfall in a sparsely populated area. (not that's any consolation to the ppl it did hit).
It also was pretty much was ripped apart immediately after landfall.

Sandy's surge was more than its wind speed would indicate b/c of its large size and ridiculously large fetch of TS+ force winds over the ocean.
Sandy is a anomalous example to use. A more congruent comparison is Andrew, Katrina, Ike, etc; yet is still not equivilant. Damage is directly related to population density, geographical features, and infrastructure strength. Comparing a Mexican Landfall to a CONUS landfall is irrational due to the distinct differences in all these categories. Not to exclude the again, extreme anomalous track of Sandy and the concurrence with the full moon cycle to exacerbate the landfalling effects; those that Patricia was not associated with.
I feel that those that live on barrier Islands understand the risk that is associated with living there. I am a firm believer that post Sandy; eminent domain should have been used to acquire all property within 3 blocks of the shoreline in order to build a large, natural dune system to protect urban areas inland from east Coast cyclones. It was a missed opportunity to give true protection to our infastructure.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:24 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@Dtone wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Another note, despite slamming the pacific Mexican coast as a Category 5, Patricia did mere millions in damage and killed an estimated less than 10 people. I wonder, how? A cyclone of that intensity... if Sandy as a 75-90mph post tropical cyclone hitting the NJ coast did 76 billion in damage and killed over 200, I wouldnt even want to imagine what a storm of increasing magnitude would do, has to make you wonder if continuing to develop coastal areas so densely is such a good idea...

So true..Patricia wasn't that large and the strongest part made landfall in a sparsely populated area. (not that's any consolation to the ppl it did hit).
It also was pretty much was ripped apart immediately after landfall.

Sandy's surge was more than its wind speed would indicate b/c of its large size and ridiculously large fetch of TS+ force winds over the ocean.
Sandy is a anomalous example to use. A more congruent comparison is Andrew, Katrina, Ike, etc; yet is still not equivilant. Damage is directly related to population density, geographical features, and infrastructure strength. Comparing a Mexican Landfall to a CONUS landfall is irrational due to the distinct differences in all these categories. Not to exclude the again, extreme anomalous track of Sandy and the concurrence with the full moon cycle to exacerbate the landfalling effects; those that Patricia was not associated with.
I feel that those that live on barrier Islands understand the risk that is associated with living there. I am a firm believer that post Sandy; eminent domain should have been used to acquire all property within 3 blocks of the shoreline in order to build a large, natural dune system to protect urban areas inland from east Coast cyclones. It was a missed opportunity to give true protection to our infastructure.

Agreed on all points, Sandys track, size and timing made it have a much higher storm surge index than a Category 1 storm should have. It was an unusual storm by all means but the barrier islands need to be just that, barriers, not crammed and developed despite it being prime real estate. We need to build up our coastal dunes to protect our existing development and build new buildings higher and stronger. If we dont learn from Sandy and get hit by a stronger storm sometime in the future which could be possible then our coast would be decimated.
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