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Tropical Season 2015

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:49 am

It is interesting that now all models (Euro, GEM, GFS) are picking up on a LP (albeit weak) coming out of the tropics around south of FL around the 7-10 day and up the coast before going east, that would be a very early tropical system if it happened, wasn't it two years ago we had our first TS in like mid may? The year before that too I think we had two May TS.
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Post by Dtone Fri May 01, 2015 10:11 pm

subtropical low forming?

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-early-start-subtropical-may-2015

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Post by jmanley32 Mon May 04, 2015 1:35 pm

FL in Miami NHC put out special advisory 30% chance of dev elopement north of Bahamas in the 5 day. Amazingly early even if it is subtropical for the NHC to have anything to talk about. CMC and NAM continue to be most bullish with this but it appears to either move inland in SC or do a loop by north Carolina and dissipate, nothing to suggest we could see adverse wx from it at this time at least.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon May 04, 2015 8:38 pm

Do we have Ana on our way in the first full week or May? Math if she forms as a true TS is that a record for earliest development? I no longer have wxbell so I got this from twitter. Yeah its the NAM but GFS, CMC and even Euro to some extent have a similar storm developing.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Nam_an10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue May 05, 2015 12:00 am

Great video by Levi Cowen on possible subtropical or TS Ana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=401&v=F8so5nndCpA
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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 06, 2015 11:59 am

Invest 90 has formed and these are the latest sgetti models, looks like on GFS the remnants of what ever does develop may bring us some wet weather. The blue model like brings it all way up coast.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Models10
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed May 06, 2015 1:02 pm

Snooze Sleep Sleep Sleep Sleep Sleep Sleep Sleep

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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 06, 2015 7:42 pm

May not be in our concern but still interesting to follow something this early, to each their own my friend. Is the rain later in the weekend from the remnants of this possible? Some of the model runs show it as a coastal hugger but not as a system anymore likely.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 07, 2015 9:47 am

NO remnants making it here. High Pressure in control and there may be a front that comes through keeping it offshore

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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 07, 2015 8:08 pm

Yeah I saw that, models keep all precip off shore at this time. Levi made another video explaining why its not moving much due the the HP etc.
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Post by amugs Fri May 08, 2015 1:54 pm

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 CEXv8etWgAA6JY_

Really, Jesus looks like angel hair pasta I had last night for dinner!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 08, 2015 2:16 pm

@amugs wrote:Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 CEXv8etWgAA6JY_

Really, Jesus looks like angel hair pasta I had last night for dinner!

Did you draw that, Al?

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Post by amugs Fri May 08, 2015 7:04 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 CEXv8etWgAA6JY_

Really, Jesus looks like angel hair pasta I had last night for dinner!

Did you draw that, Al?

How did you guess?? With my CAD expertise I put this together. Eat your pasta out!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 08, 2015 10:14 pm

LOL it now has it passing suth of cape cod as a 40mph post tropical storm, looks like all wind and rain stays on south side but it is a impressive looking storm and is likely to become fully tropical per NHC tonight or tomorrow.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 08, 2015 10:17 pm

Those sgetti models are way older than today much more distinct track offshore but not that far off shore.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Storm_10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 08, 2015 10:19 pm

NHC cone, has it regain off cape cod post tropical but back to storm strength.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Nhc_co10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 08, 2015 10:22 pm

Looks pretty well defined ive seen stronger storms look like nothing but a blob this has a classic spin to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

hurricane hunters have found a large area of 60+ mph winds on the east side, much stronger than expected.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 13, 2015 12:15 pm

Ana wasn't much of a big deal for the Carolinas but looked really impressive on satellite, I was surprised she got to a 60mph actual tropical storm. I wouldn't expect much more than maybe one in June July and then maybe a few in August and Sept, maybe Oct. but overall looking like q quieter season and especially if that el nino sets up early enough the cape verde season will be greatly hampered. Not to mention the immediate tropics, I foresee the storms that do develop to be in close storms though like Ana or coming up from Caribbean.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue May 26, 2015 11:36 am

LR GFS is showing something brewing in the tropics and eventually moving north. GFS has had it at carolinas, off jersey and 06z today off cape cod. Who knows that far out but something to watch possibly later part of first week of June.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:53 pm

Well the CMC certainly wants to dev elop a hurricane in the next several days and bring it up just off the coast, something to watch as GFS has something too, but king Euro (but I dethrown him after so called Juno) only shows a very minor wave. Nonetheless 12z CMC.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc_110
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:54 pm

And I know this is probably the CMC playing games but be prepared just in case, wx as we know can surprise but lets see if anything even gets notated in carib. by NHC.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc210
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:56 pm

Looks a awful lot like Irene track but more offshore once passes the Carolinas.


Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc310
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:57 pm

If this was winter we would all be salivating, a hurricane not so much, not a good thing in most peoples minds (yes even mine, I would not wish a damaging hurricane on anyone). Also to note this is several days of the CMC showing this consistently not one run, this is why I think it may be something we need to watch, even if its not a hit on us I am sure we have people we know along the East coast.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc410
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:07 pm

Oh and NHC calling for 6-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes and 0-2 major.  If that holds we have one down so that would average about 1-2 storms a month. Frank keep ur snooze comment to yourself lol.
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Post by Quietace Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:If this was winter we would all be salivating, a hurricane not so much, not a good thing in most peoples minds (yes even mine, I would not wish a damaging hurricane on anyone). Also to note this is several days of the CMC showing this consistently not one run, this is why I think it may be something we need to watch, even if its not a hit on us I am sure we have people we know along the East coast.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc410
Little signal on GEM-ENS so its probably just the usual OP GEM over-development of the system...GFS result seems more likely

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