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Tropical Season 2015

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Post by Quietace Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:32 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Ugg ya got my syo lol, nah I would love it if the wind could howl and not do any damage.  I went to beach one time during a TS and you saw me im not exactly light and i  leaned into the sustained wind and it literally held me up was awesome, also love to watch the surf but the damage it does to the shore is horrible.  Cape Cod will never be like I remember it 20 years ago, went few years back totally washed away beaches sad.  And yes we are becoming somewhat of a hotspot for the tropics and we have not had a ACTUAL hurricane or TS landfall in a long time is my concern. Last cat 2 i believe was Bob, boy do I remember that one in CT sheesh.  The shore was in ruins, was sad to see all the homes and families displaced there.  We cannot control mother nature but we can be prepared.  Who knows we could easily go another 100 years without a tropical eent just as easily we could have a huge hit in the next 1 to 10 years.  Only one unseen being knows this....mother nature.  Ai am hoping for the Easter storm though, that looks like if its strong enough could kick up some good winds, we will see.

I remember catching Striped Bass every cast into ridiculous white water and huge waves about 18 hours before Sandy.  I have a different perspective on storms and coastal damage/flooding.  Mother nature is in control.  Living by the shore or rivers is beautiful, yet eventually going to end badly.  Beaches change/wash away and re-form somewhere else.   Rivers flood and their channels change frequently.  The one I fish has moved by 100 yards in the past 2 years.  It's a natural cycle.  If you choose to live near the ocean or a river you will eventually lose your house and property.  No crying allowed and you should not be able to buy insurance for something you KNOW will happen.
I agree with this and have a opinion that no one should be allowed to build on a ocean front and especially a barrier island. Its ridiculous to have any sort of permanent settlement on that type of land mass....The towns should be dissolved and infrastructure eliminated and re planted to there natural state with large dunes to protect infrastructure on the interior...Here are some photos after sandy on the Barnaget Peninsula....
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Nj_loc10
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Nj_loc11
Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Nj_loc12
Areas with infastructure compared to Island Beach State park, which is practically in its natural state

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Nj_loc13

Another point is the ever changing nature of our beaches and inlets, which bulk heading beachfront and tamining inlets is changing its natural corse... Where the inltet broke through in mantalooking in 2012, there was actually a historic inlet, and i believe should have been left open as its a natural occurring waterway...
http://inletsandoutlets.blogspot.com/2013/01/cranberry-inlet-herring-inlet-and.html
Eventually we will lose the battle with nature as it can only be controlled to a point, and im in firm belief we will learn this soon...

I have been saying this for years and have gotten nasty comments back that these barrier Islands should have never been allowed to be built on years ago.They are shifting all the time as a result of currents and storms.Your pictorial proof of this is amazing and spot on.The government pours in billions of taxpayer dollars re-inforcing beaches with sand only to have it wash away in the next big storm.It would be cheaper in the long run to buy everybody out with housesd, knock them all down and let the Island go where it wants to.You can maintain parks like Island Beach so residents can still enjoy the ocean.There is just too much money involved now with shore houses and businesses so I think my proposal will never happen.Billions more will be poured down the rathole the next 50 years.
Beach Replenishment is functionally obsolete and a massive repetitive expense to tax payers. This is from a NJ.com article....which states the cost of beach replenishment that will be done here....
"The projects are slated for the northern Ocean County peninsula from Point Pleasant Beach to Berkeley Township at an anticipated cost of between $135 million and $145 million; all of Long Beach Island at a cost of $128 million and Absecon Island from Ventnor to Longport in Atlantic County for $35 million."

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Post by docstox12 Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:52 pm

Ryan, those last two pictures in your posting say it all. They are totally comitted to sand replenishment now basically forever as long as those buildings stand on the barrier Islands.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:49 am

It is interesting that now all models (Euro, GEM, GFS) are picking up on a LP (albeit weak) coming out of the tropics around south of FL around the 7-10 day and up the coast before going east, that would be a very early tropical system if it happened, wasn't it two years ago we had our first TS in like mid may? The year before that too I think we had two May TS.
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Post by Dtone Fri May 01, 2015 10:11 pm

subtropical low forming?

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-early-start-subtropical-may-2015

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Post by jmanley32 Mon May 04, 2015 1:35 pm

FL in Miami NHC put out special advisory 30% chance of dev elopement north of Bahamas in the 5 day. Amazingly early even if it is subtropical for the NHC to have anything to talk about. CMC and NAM continue to be most bullish with this but it appears to either move inland in SC or do a loop by north Carolina and dissipate, nothing to suggest we could see adverse wx from it at this time at least.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon May 04, 2015 8:38 pm

Do we have Ana on our way in the first full week or May? Math if she forms as a true TS is that a record for earliest development? I no longer have wxbell so I got this from twitter. Yeah its the NAM but GFS, CMC and even Euro to some extent have a similar storm developing.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Nam_an10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue May 05, 2015 12:00 am

Great video by Levi Cowen on possible subtropical or TS Ana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=401&v=F8so5nndCpA
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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 06, 2015 11:59 am

Invest 90 has formed and these are the latest sgetti models, looks like on GFS the remnants of what ever does develop may bring us some wet weather. The blue model like brings it all way up coast.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Models10
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed May 06, 2015 1:02 pm

Snooze Sleep Sleep Sleep Sleep Sleep Sleep Sleep

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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 06, 2015 7:42 pm

May not be in our concern but still interesting to follow something this early, to each their own my friend. Is the rain later in the weekend from the remnants of this possible? Some of the model runs show it as a coastal hugger but not as a system anymore likely.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 07, 2015 9:47 am

NO remnants making it here. High Pressure in control and there may be a front that comes through keeping it offshore

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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 07, 2015 8:08 pm

Yeah I saw that, models keep all precip off shore at this time. Levi made another video explaining why its not moving much due the the HP etc.
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Post by amugs Fri May 08, 2015 1:54 pm

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 CEXv8etWgAA6JY_

Really, Jesus looks like angel hair pasta I had last night for dinner!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 08, 2015 2:16 pm

amugs wrote:Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 CEXv8etWgAA6JY_

Really, Jesus looks like angel hair pasta I had last night for dinner!

Did you draw that, Al?

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Post by amugs Fri May 08, 2015 7:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 CEXv8etWgAA6JY_

Really, Jesus looks like angel hair pasta I had last night for dinner!

Did you draw that, Al?

How did you guess?? With my CAD expertise I put this together. Eat your pasta out!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 08, 2015 10:14 pm

LOL it now has it passing suth of cape cod as a 40mph post tropical storm, looks like all wind and rain stays on south side but it is a impressive looking storm and is likely to become fully tropical per NHC tonight or tomorrow.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 08, 2015 10:17 pm

Those sgetti models are way older than today much more distinct track offshore but not that far off shore.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Storm_10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 08, 2015 10:19 pm

NHC cone, has it regain off cape cod post tropical but back to storm strength.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 08, 2015 10:22 pm

Looks pretty well defined ive seen stronger storms look like nothing but a blob this has a classic spin to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

hurricane hunters have found a large area of 60+ mph winds on the east side, much stronger than expected.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 13, 2015 12:15 pm

Ana wasn't much of a big deal for the Carolinas but looked really impressive on satellite, I was surprised she got to a 60mph actual tropical storm. I wouldn't expect much more than maybe one in June July and then maybe a few in August and Sept, maybe Oct. but overall looking like q quieter season and especially if that el nino sets up early enough the cape verde season will be greatly hampered. Not to mention the immediate tropics, I foresee the storms that do develop to be in close storms though like Ana or coming up from Caribbean.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue May 26, 2015 11:36 am

LR GFS is showing something brewing in the tropics and eventually moving north. GFS has had it at carolinas, off jersey and 06z today off cape cod. Who knows that far out but something to watch possibly later part of first week of June.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:53 pm

Well the CMC certainly wants to dev elop a hurricane in the next several days and bring it up just off the coast, something to watch as GFS has something too, but king Euro (but I dethrown him after so called Juno) only shows a very minor wave. Nonetheless 12z CMC.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc_110
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:54 pm

And I know this is probably the CMC playing games but be prepared just in case, wx as we know can surprise but lets see if anything even gets notated in carib. by NHC.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc210
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:56 pm

Looks a awful lot like Irene track but more offshore once passes the Carolinas.


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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:57 pm

If this was winter we would all be salivating, a hurricane not so much, not a good thing in most peoples minds (yes even mine, I would not wish a damaging hurricane on anyone). Also to note this is several days of the CMC showing this consistently not one run, this is why I think it may be something we need to watch, even if its not a hit on us I am sure we have people we know along the East coast.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc410
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:07 pm

Oh and NHC calling for 6-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes and 0-2 major.  If that holds we have one down so that would average about 1-2 storms a month. Frank keep ur snooze comment to yourself lol.
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Post by Quietace Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:If this was winter we would all be salivating, a hurricane not so much, not a good thing in most peoples minds (yes even mine, I would not wish a damaging hurricane on anyone). Also to note this is several days of the CMC showing this consistently not one run, this is why I think it may be something we need to watch, even if its not a hit on us I am sure we have people we know along the East coast.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 2 Cmc410
Little signal on GEM-ENS so its probably just the usual OP GEM over-development of the system...GFS result seems more likely
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