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Tropical Season 2015

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:05 pm

Right I guessed that, nonetheless, something to watch for at least a rain event like dunzoo said in the other thread.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:35 pm

At the moment not a threat to the area. Another piece of energy will eject out of the Great Lakes around this time which will help shun this system out to sea. Irene also evolved out of the west Carrib. and took a track west and then north. This system is evolving east of Mexico and would have to take a track north then due west to strike us. Not common.


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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:07 pm

Nope that would be pretty crazy.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:08 am

Looks like we may have TS Bill in the gulf next week, something to track at least!

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Post by stdmk04 Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:41 am

Have a wedding on Saturday June 20 at the jersey shore and people are starting to worry about rain...anybody have any insight as to whether the storm in he gulf could impact the weather along the jersey shore this coming Saturday?  Thanks!

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Post by algae888 Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:40 pm

@stdmk04 wrote:Have a wedding on Saturday June 20 at the jersey shore and people are starting to worry about rain...anybody have any insight as to whether the storm in he gulf could impact the weather along the jersey shore this coming Saturday?  Thanks!
as of now the system in the gulf looks to be our rain maker for thurs and thurs night. sat looks dry and if it does rain this weekend sunday looks to be the day.
nws disco...
FOR SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS GFS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WENT
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS...BUT SHOULD THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...POPS COULD BE REMOVED COMPLETELY WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
cmc also dry
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Post by amugs Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:53 pm

https://stormw.wordpress.com/]

Good write up here by "Storm Walsh".

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:31 pm

TS Bill has formed in the Gulf, looks to bring us some wet weather as its remnants hitches with another system coming from canada on the CMC anyways.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:22 pm

Does anyone have updated info on TS Bill and the impact Sunday for the area hearing possibly 2 inches of rain and severe storms
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:59 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anyone have updated info on TS Bill and the impact Sunday for the area hearing possibly 2 inches of rain and severe storms

Rain is supposed to move in Saturday night and Sunday. We will probably get a decent amount of rain from it, but I would give it another day to see how much. It does look juicy though!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:11 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anyone have updated info on TS Bill and the impact Sunday for the area hearing possibly 2 inches of rain and severe storms

Rain is supposed to move in Saturday night and Sunday. We will probably get a decent amount of rain from it, but I would give it another day to see how much. It does look juicy though!

Rain may be heavier north but Cnj and snj may get severe storms we will wait and see
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jun 18, 2015 5:40 pm

Latest GFS model maybe a little bullish but giving 2-3 inches of rain for Saturday night into Sunday.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jun 18, 2015 7:21 pm

Its amazing how long Bill has held his circulation all the way to oklahoma, I do not think I ever recall seeing that.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:16 pm

This is so bizarre, AND the pressure actually dropped to 1002mb from 1006mb earlier today. Still has somewhat of a center of circulation which is amazing in the heartland.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jun 20, 2015 8:31 am

He was pretty impressive. I didn't look at him in detail to know why he's survived this long, but I'm guessing H5 energy helped reinvigorate him.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jun 20, 2015 8:46 am

They are also expecting some intensification after it crosses the Appalachians.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:17 am

snore.....IF CMC isn't playing its usual long range games it has a 1003mb LP intensifying right off jersey shore, might be from a front thats how I think things will develop this year if they do at all. Likely the CMC overintensifying LP as it does with the tropics more often than not especially 240 hrs out. If NHC notates the area in a week or so then I will watch and it would seriously suck if we got a tropical system to go up coast as I will be on tip of cape in two weeks. Surfs up! Also I read on another blog if HP is in control anything that does form will go west (inland).
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:57 am

Huge Saharan dust plume off the coast of Africa will squash a lot of Atlantic development for a while. Good thing since I don't want anything to hit the shore...

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 06, 2015 10:22 pm

Yes but my concern is in close development as the SST's are warm even up to here so LP spinning off of tails from fronts will be our EC concern this year. If predictions are right there are quite a few names to go till, not a huge season but we still need to be prepared, one major off the EC is all it takes, as long it stays OTS the only issue will be whos hitting the waves 1st!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:04 am

Jeeze our king Euro, which is usually pretty good with the tropics has the projected monster hurricane in eastern pacific dropping to 900mb! Now that is scary as hell!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:39 pm

Tropical storm Claudette formed in a rather unusual place to the NE of NC, and is headed out to sea, but normally we do not see such rapid intensification of a TS (it is not subtropical) fully tropical per NHC, unexpectedly. This is my concern for this year of these close to US developments, but one would have to be quite close to the US to effect the EC at all. Still looks pretty on sattelite.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jul 18, 2015 5:20 pm

A little spin with convection....could something be on its way?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:21 pm

Hmm dunno, 18z GFS went kinda bonkers developing two weak systems in very long rage up east coast, no other run showed it though. as we know past a few days isnt accurate let alone 300 hrs lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:23 pm

Dunzoo that would be a dd place for a system to form, im assuming your talking about the large spin way east of FL in atlantic?
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:25 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Dunzoo that would be a dd place for a system to form, im assuming your talking about the large spin way east of FL in atlantic?

Yes there is some spin and some convection starting to develop.....obviously a long way to go, just something that caught my eye

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