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Tropical Season 2015

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:25 pm

Or are u talking about all way to lower right? That system was highlighted but was since dropped.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:27 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Or are u talking about all way to lower right? That system was highlighted but was since dropped.

In the center of the frame...

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:20 pm

Worth noting the Euro for 3 straight runs has showed a tropical storm hitting the east coast 1.5 weeks from now. Will bring details early next week if still a threat.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:32 pm

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_9

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:35 pm

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 4 0FaxTEa

We're talking the August 3rd time frame.

My preliminary thoughts are this will remain offshore. I'll have details on Monday if this is still a threat.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:14 am

Holy crap thst would be really bad if it didn't stay off shore. I need get my euro back. Been on vacation haven't looked at models. Only thing that says euro may not b wrong is how it did with sandy. Not saying anything will happen. Like frank said just watch. Nhc has to put up an area to watch for starters lol. Where does this originate from?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:18 am

Well it looks like nhc has put up a area of interest but I have heard some chatter that they are going with gfs, and saying euro is a outlier and are going with the gfs. However 00z cmc caught on and has a cat 1 maybe 2 off shore but it does a odd ne to se then sw then ots lol silly cmc. 00z euro has a entire coast ride but a very weak low which is further out in time do not even sure it's same lp. so its, all over the place as would b expected 5 or so days out. I'll b interested to see what 12z runs show although have a ton of runs b4 anything would likely come to agreement and a actual lp developing. Def be prepared the gulf stream goes pretty far north and it's not unheard of to get true tropical entities here. I always say err on the cautious side and not have to use anything than to not b prepared. Something to note the water here in cape cod is quite warm which is not very usual. Still cold but not unbearable on a nice day.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:15 pm

Nhc tottotatotally moved the area of slight interest to gom into sw Atlantic intetesting.
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Post by amugs Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:10 pm

Guys wtf? I am flying in on Aug 1st keep that sucked to the after this prego!! I am checking in with u guys from afar only when I can get wifi at night in the hotel lobby.
Ciao peeps

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:18 pm

U mm mugs those big fingers what hell did u just say lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 26, 2015 10:36 am

Looks as if for now the models have settled down on tropical development however tail ends of fronts stalled as we know need to b watched.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 26, 2015 1:17 pm

Threat for tropical storm next week is over. We may still see a tropical low that forms off a cold front, but nothing severe. We can use the rain so I hope that happens but even then it looks bleak.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:46 pm

Somewhat worth noting UKMET and NAVGEM have the storm still and UKMET gets very close to hear with a TS. Doubt much will come of it but there is still talk in the tropics community on other boards.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 05, 2015 2:58 pm

Gotta love that GFS and CMC, despite the Saharan dust and el nino looks like cape verde season may try spin up a few in the long range...or they are phantom storms. Probably the later.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:16 pm

NOAA just updated outlook and though overall named storms not different by much (6-10) now only 1-4 hurricanes and 0-1 major. I think we will see a slight spike in activity in sept and October and that's it. And probably no major threats to US but one never knows.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:24 am

As Jman said, we should start seeing the tropics flare up a bit over the next 1-2 months. With El Nino coming on strong, I do not expect any major hurricanes to develop. I also doubt we get directly effected by one, but you never know. I think we'll see some tropical storms or weak disturbances pop up

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Post by amugs Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:47 pm

Jman for you,

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 4 Two_atl_5d0

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 4 96l-18z-intensity-guidance1

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 4 96l-18z-dynamic-guidance1

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:51 pm

Been so dang busy had no idea we had a 80% chance of formation from a cape verde storm in such a hostile environment. It is at a low level though and hence below the dust layer. It looks like this could become hurricane Danny but its moving verrrry slowly so conditions have time to change drastically. The question is how far west does it get, how strong and does it recurve or eventually threaten the US? Thats probably 2 weeks away if we do get strong development. We are going to need strong development for it to maintain on its approach to lesser antilles and into caribbean.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:16 am

Will probably be a depression or even a storm today, looks impressive for a invest at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/imagery/vis-animated.gif
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:25 am

Another area too with low probability near burmuda popped up this morning as can be seen above, yesterday had it coming very close to NE, but now looking more to move OTS. Whatever it does does not look to be a big deal. Invest 96L though I have a feeling will become a hurricane and maybe out or major that was in the projections. I could be wrong too as conditions in the Caribbean may be too hostile for it. But it may gain a higher intensity before then.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:59 pm

TS Danny is strengthening and forcast to become a 100mph cat 2 in the 5 day.  Euro ensembles are a bit concerning for FL and the east coast, but still WAY to far away.  18z GFS takes it right up the coast, would not be good for us, especially with warmer waters.  I totally get that is fantasy land and put no stance in it just pointing the run out.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 4 Euro_810
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Post by gigs68 Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:10 am

Looks like we have Hurricane Danny. Seems to have developed into a Hurricane a day in advance of projections.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:35 am

At this time I feel Danny will have no impact to our area.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:35 pm

I agree Frank, what about the area by Bermuda? And how come u not mention the 1-3 inches rain coming tomorrow, usually you have a scroll. Nice pic gangsta lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:18 am

Danny is now a category 2, almost 3 with 105mph winds and 976mb.  Big time intensity increase.  Keep an eye on it, classic looking tight system wind field only out 70 miles. HH out today, could change track and intensity forecast, likely will and models will probably start to pick up on its intensity and track because as of right now current position on models do not even match current actualy intensity. Which I find funny.

Tropical Season 2015 - Page 4 Rainbo10
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