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*Blog* March Storm(s) Update - Easter Nor'easter?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:57 pm

Just an FYI -

With weather slowing down and me being occupied with work, you're likely to see a lot more blogs over the next few months instead of individual forum posts. It's just easier for me. Obviously if there is a big storm coming or breaking weather news, I'll be more active in the forum.

Please follow the link to my latest blog - where I'm watching the potential for a coastal storm around the 6th of April. I also update what's happening with the storms this weekend.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/03/march-storms-update-easter-coastal-storm.html

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:21 pm

Thanks Frank, everything I needed to know all wrapped into one, a good idea for a busy guy to do blogs. Man that EPO does really tank, lets hope it stays that way, how many days of it showing this will it take you to start to get really interested, after all this is still 12 days or so away. Will look forward to future posts on what may or may not come.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:36 pm

Thanks man!

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Post by rb924119 Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:12 pm

Nice job Frank!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:53 am

Easter Eve still very intriguing on 6Z GFS. A little to warm but plenty of wiggle room.

April 6, 1982? How great an ending to winter would that be. We had a beautiful white Thanksgiving in the HV this year a nice white Easter would be the perfect culmination to winter.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:02 am

I will have to look that up CP I was 1 so I wouldn't remember. I haven't checked 06z yet, wxbell wasn't working earlier, dunno why. It would b cool to have a storm on easter, I would hate heavy rain though, that's one thing I despise unless I can stay inside the whole time.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:04 am

That norlun or inverted trough setsup over CT and LI gets 5 inches per GFS this weekend!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:I will have to look that up CP I was 1 so I wouldn't remember.  I haven't checked 06z yet, wxbell wasn't working earlier, dunno why.  It would b cool to have a storm on easter, I would hate heavy rain though, that's one thing I despise unless I can stay inside the whole time.

Jman the April 6, 1982 blizzard saw 10-12 inches of snow in NYC and 12-20 inches in the HV and NNJ, I don't remember how it affected LI or CT.

I remember it well I was 21 at the time. I had tickets for opening day at Yankees stadium that day, obviously they didn't play. Actually the storm was so severe opening day was delayed 4 days until Yankee Stadium could be cleared out of all the snow. Temperatures during the storm were in the 20's and most of the storm was during the day but sun angle and all of the other things you might think would affect accumulations during an April snow storm had zero affect. The next morning April 7th when the storm was over it was 10 degrees in the HV and 19 in NYC. I've seen several April snow storms in the HV but that was the topper for my lifetime no doubt.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:12 am

Well history does repeat itself, likely probably no but maybe we can get one hast hoorah out of the winter.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:14 am

ooz Euro shows support for a coastal on easter too! None of the Euro ensembles have snow anywhere near the coast though not even N and W until well inland.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:31 pm

I'm hoping that its just rain or nothing we are going on a family vacation to New Hampshire on Easter
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:18 am

Omg 00z gfs is awesome!

*Blog* March Storm(s) Update - Easter Nor'easter? Gfs_ms17
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Post by rb924119 Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:03 pm

I haven't looked at today's 12z runs, but I did a brief analysis of the 00z ensembles and I must say that I don't think this system holds much water to it anymore. The only things that we have going for it are a weak -EPO and MJO forcing. There's no or even a negative PNA and no help at all from the NAO/AO, which this time of year is uber-important. The NAO/AO try to get negative but they are too little too late, unfortunately. I think this ends up being a cutter because the PV does not have enough forcing to get it far enough south and favorably aligned to bring us a snowstorm. I hope it changes, and like I said, I haven't looked at the latest runs, but those are my very brief thoughts as of now. Sorry that I haven't been on the last several days, but I'm rounding out the last few days of my job, and OF COURSE I've been barely able to keep up lol After Wednesday I'll be back ready to roll lol

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