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TWC just issued their outlook. They are calling for an active hurricane season.

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TWC just issued their outlook. They are calling for an active hurricane season. Empty TWC just issued their outlook. They are calling for an active hurricane season.

Post by Snow88 Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:32 am



http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-season-outlook-april-20130408
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TWC just issued their outlook. They are calling for an active hurricane season. Empty Re: TWC just issued their outlook. They are calling for an active hurricane season.

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Apr 08, 2013 3:05 pm

I am not surprised. The winter finished with a very strong -NAO/AO. If you look at some analogs, winters when the NAO has finished negative during the winter leads to extremely active hurricane seasons.

Oh great.
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I am not surprised. The winter finished with a very strong -NAO/AO. If you look at some analogs, winters when the NAO has finished negative during the winter leads to extremely active hurricane seasons.

Oh great.

Frank, in 2006 during most of March, the NAO and AO were both negative. Yet, the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane season had only 9 named storms. I think the determining factor in hurricane seasons is the presence of El Nino/La Nina.

Link to teleconnections from 2006:
ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks

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Post by Snow88 Tue Apr 09, 2013 10:48 am

Here is a 2013 hurricane outlook from Weatherundergroud.com

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneDean07/comment.html?entrynum=39

Active season
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Apr 09, 2013 10:50 am

Was just about to post this. That was a great read.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:27 pm

This is from Reuters

Top U.S. storm team sees above average Atlantic hurricane season

(Reuters) - The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will be "above average" with 18 tropical storms, nine of which will intensify into hurricanes, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted on Wednesday.

Four of the hurricanes will be major with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, the leading U.S. storm research team said.

An average season brings about 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, according to CSU. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The prediction for a busier 2013 season was based on two factors, the researchers said. Hurricanes thrive on warm water and the Atlantic Ocean has warmed in recent months.

There is also little expectation of an El Nino effect this summer and fall.

El Nino is a warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years and has far-ranging effects around the globe. The weather phenomenon creates wind shear that makes it harder for storms to develop into hurricanes in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin.

The researchers said there was a 72 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast this year, compared with a historical average of 52 percent.

There is a 48 percent chance a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast, compared with a historical average of 31 percent, and a 47 percent chance one would hit the Gulf of Mexico coast, compared with an average of 30 percent.

The 2012 hurricane season spawned 19 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes, including Hurricane Sandy, which hit the northeastern United States in October after rampaging through the Caribbean.

Sandy killed more than 200 people and caused more than $71 billion of damage in New York and New Jersey.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-usa-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9390SV20130410
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Post by Snow88 Wed Apr 17, 2013 9:43 pm

Washington post

Four groups predicting very active season

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/04/16/four-groups-predict-very-active-hurricane-season/?wprss=rss_homepage

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:58 am

There will be more outlooks released around mid to late May as well, including NOAA's.
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