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May 2015 Observations and Discussions

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GreyBeard
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Post by algae888 Mon May 11, 2015 11:58 am

it looks like we may have a persistent South East Ridge this summer which as you know can pump very warm humid air into our area as Frank stated above there seems to be a trough in the Southwest US which is just as persistent hopefully we will not have a hot humid summer
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Post by Nyi1058 Mon May 11, 2015 1:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Nyi1058 wrote:Hey fellas ! Can anybody take a look at this coming sat . I have a 100 mile bike ride I signed up for . It's from Babylon to montauk . As of now I'm seeing some showers in the forecast . Was wondering if anybody can pin point the timing .
Again this is the best place for the weather . I'm a lurker mostly . But do post once in a while .

Hello!

My current thinking is the bulk of the rain will occur over the evening Friday into early Saturday morning. The rest of the day Saturday will feature on and off rain showers. I do not expect this to be a washout of a day. There may actually be clearing in the afternoon with some sun. Remind me to give another update either tomorrow or Wednesday for a more accurate picture Smile
ok thanks frank !! Very much appreciate it !!

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Post by amugs Mon May 11, 2015 1:57 pm

Muggy outside - 82* and just summer like - yuk!

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Post by Math23x7 Mon May 11, 2015 3:40 pm

Some pop up thunderstorms in NJ.

May 2015 Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Wxbell13

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Post by Dtone Mon May 11, 2015 4:10 pm

radar shows showers around Newark and into Manhattan moving north and weakening. Was that for real or is CPK still bone dry?

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Post by Dtone Mon May 11, 2015 4:12 pm

ah I see CPK is reporting reporting light rain. Dry warm and humid here.

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Post by docstox12 Mon May 11, 2015 5:50 pm

Was sitting outside having a cigar and there was a wind driven sunshower from a single cumulus cloud over me,LOL.The proverbial single cloud just raining on me.60% of the sky was blue,LOL!
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Post by GreyBeard Mon May 11, 2015 6:45 pm

Just your luck doc. Who was that character from Charlie Brown that always had the cloud hanging over him? I've been putting up a fence with my neighbor that has rotted out over the past 20 yrs.He's 86 yrs. old,but you'd never know it. We've been comparing our aches and pains on a daily basis-it's been pretty funny actually. Sorry if I've wandered off topic, but it's pretty quiet here since winter's over. Been getting a good tan started being outside all day.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon May 11, 2015 8:54 pm

Thanks Frank for your prediction for Saturday....so Mad... Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil it has not rained in nearly a month and we are doing the color run on Saturday...and it is going to rain!!! start time 6:30 am....powder in the rain in not going to be fun Sad
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon May 11, 2015 8:56 pm

I hope your updated forecast changes!!
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Post by docstox12 Tue May 12, 2015 1:30 am

@GreyBeard wrote:Just your luck doc. Who was that character from Charlie Brown that always had the cloud hanging over him? I've been putting up a fence with my neighbor that has rotted out over the past 20 yrs.He's 86 yrs. old,but you'd never know it. We've been comparing our aches and pains on a daily basis-it's been pretty funny actually. Sorry if I've wandered off topic, but it's pretty quiet here since winter's over. Been getting a good tan started being outside all day.

LOLO, Greybeard, if I didn't have pain everyday, then I'd think I was dead,LOL!

Love that neighbor buddy of yours,my hero at age 86! Reminds me of my Dad at age 85 re-building the brick stairs at his house.

Hey, Ibuprofen is your friend,Greybeard!
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Post by amugs Tue May 12, 2015 9:03 am

Another sultry,tropical like day with temps in the 80's to near 90 and humidity in the upper 60's to upper 70's, LOVELY!

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Post by Angela0621 Tue May 12, 2015 9:55 am

Hi Frank!! My daughter is getting married down in Beach Haven Saturday at 4pm on the beach. Any idea if she will get rained out?
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Post by Nyi1058 Tue May 12, 2015 9:59 am

@Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank!! My daughter is getting married down in Beach Haven Saturday at 4pm on the beach.  Any idea if she will get rained out?
wow a lot going on for sat , hey maybe frank can do a " rain" map like he does a snow map for this week !!!! Razz

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Post by ak926 Tue May 12, 2015 10:04 am

I have measured .03 of rain this month so far, and 3 days with a Trace.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue May 12, 2015 10:12 am

@Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank!! My daughter is getting married down in Beach Haven Saturday at 4pm on the beach.  Any idea if she will get rained out?

Yay congratulations!!!

So it looks like Saturday is an important day for a lot of people. Unfortunately, a change in guidance overnight is showing less rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning and more in the afternoon hours. Let's take a look at the GGEM and GFS.

GGEM 1pm Saturday

May 2015 Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19

7pm Saturday

May 2015 Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20

The GGEM does not bring rain to the Jersey Shore until 10pm on Saturday. The majority of the day is dry with rain mainly to the north.

GGEM 7am Saturday

May 2015 Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18

For NYC Metro, the GGEM is trying to give areas north of NYC into NNJ a washout of a day with rain beginning around 5am and persisting through the rest of the day as a warm front moves through.

GFS 1pm

May 2015 Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18

GFS 7pm

May 2015 Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19

The GFS model has rain holding off for the Jersey Shore and NYC Metro until 1-2pm. After that, it looks like a good amount of rain moves into the area.

May 2015 Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Gem_z500_vort_eus_20

It looks like the cut-off trough in the western US is helping to pump up the southeast ridge over the eastern US which is going tor result in muggy / humid weather and pop-up showers and thunder showers.

For the Jersey Shore: Saturday should be mainly dry in the morning with peaks of sun and temps getting into the 80's with pop-up showers moving in around 1-2pm. After 4pm, the rain may become persistent and steady.

For NYC Metro: Saturday could be mainly wet for most of the day especially the further north you are. Temps will not get as warm as they will to our south, but humid and showery weather should be expected.

Originally I thought this could all come at one shot overnight Friday but guidance has changed. These warm fronts are tricky to forecast so lets see if there is another change in the next 24-48 hours.


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Post by Angela0621 Tue May 12, 2015 10:15 am

Thanks, I will keep checking in. As long as we can get 3:30 to 4:30 dry we can pull off the ceremony on the beach!!
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Post by Nyi1058 Tue May 12, 2015 10:55 am

Awesome frank thanks !!! I'm mainly concerned with the south shore of Long Island . That north trend is keeping me positive . As long as we are not a washout , we can deal with a few showers !

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Post by Quietace Tue May 12, 2015 11:48 am

90.4... 1st of season...82 at the wx station at the inlet. Nice beach day

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Post by jmanley32 Tue May 12, 2015 1:43 pm

the word of the day is HOT! We went from winter to summer...no spring. Ace you still want to see my Sandy & PTSD paper?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue May 12, 2015 1:47 pm

Jman you making it to the meet up
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Post by jmanley32 Tue May 12, 2015 2:06 pm

Its pretty far for me, it depends on the 2 yr old and I also asked if the group would really want a 2 yr old running around at the get together. If we did come I'd be the 3 of us most likely. I said maybe at this time.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue May 12, 2015 2:08 pm

Frank so is it safe to say a outdoor plan for Sat morning is no good? Even the slightest of rain would be no good for what I have planned.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue May 12, 2015 4:42 pm

Jman look for my update tomorrow - as of now I'll say bad day.

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue May 12, 2015 10:16 pm

Front is close now, winds picked up down to 71°

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