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Long Range Thread 8.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:50 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give timing on Saturday rain and is it sat. Into Sunday or Friday into Saturday thank you

Check other thread. This is no longer long range

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:59 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give timing on Saturday rain and is it sat. Into Sunday or Friday into Saturday thank you

Check other thread. This is no longer long range

I did thanks Frank for the update
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Post by algae888 Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:13 am

this from steve d this morning.

"The more quiet the sun becomes, the more likely the stratosphere is going to warm and thus leading to a cooling stratosphere.  One observation that stands out to me is the sun activity is steadily decreasing as we head through the Summer.  Will this continue into the Fall and Winter months?  Well, the forecast of the solar cycle 24 would suggest yes, very much so.

I suspect as the activity of the sun abates, the stratospheric temperatures will begin to produce historically warm environments which would suggest the return of strong high latitude blocking, very much to what was seen in 2009.  We are not there yet, but certainly moving in that direction."

a strong el-nino with high lat. blocking sounds great to me. frank and others any comments?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:18 am

@algae888 wrote:this from steve d this morning.

The more quiet the sun becomes, the more likely the stratosphere is going to warm and thus leading to a cooling stratosphere.  One observation that stands out to me is the sun activity is steadily decreasing as we head through the Summer.  Will this continue into the Fall and Winter months?  Well, the forecast of the solar cycle 24 would suggest yes, very much so.

I suspect as the activity of the sun abates, the stratospheric temperatures will begin to produce historically warm environments which would suggest the return of strong high latitude blocking, very much to what was seen in 2009.  We are not there yet, but certainly moving in that direction.

a strong el-nino with high lat. blocking sounds great to me. frank and others any comments?

Well, first off he made a typo. A warming Stratosphere leads to a cooling TROPOSPHERE. Secondly, he is correct in saying the sun is in a "dead" period (as I like to call it). Check out the graphic below:

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Sunspot-predictions

We're currently in between cycle 24 and 25 and that insists on an inactive sun, with the peak (of the dead period) coming in 2020. This graphic is just a forecast mean, which means while the overall year may have low sun activity there may still be a 1-2 month period where it's actually active with solar storms and what not. Hopefully its active period does not occur over the winter time. We should have a much better idea by Fall.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:27 am

Check out some of these quotes from the Met-Office Study:

"There is a high chance that solar activity of the sun will decrease over the next few years," he said.

"There is a chance of a repeat of the Maunder Minimum period where sun spots completely vanish, there are already some signs of this.

"This can change the amount of ozone in the atmosphere over the tropics and a weakening and southwards shift of the jet stream, in winter this leads to colder conditions.

"There were many factors which triggered the winter of 2009/10 and this could have been one of them.

And from James Madden...

"Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years.

"We will head into another rapid decline throughout the remainder of the upcoming year.

Read full article here:

http://www.express.c...-solar-activity

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:29 am

Any info on what the 436th of July weekend is looking like?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:16 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Any info on what the 436th of July weekend is looking like?

Did the Senate decide to extend July by 406 days? Summer vacays for everyone!!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:37 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Any info on what the 436th of July weekend is looking like?

Did the Senate decide to extend July by 406 days? Summer vacays for everyone!!!

Lol Frank sorry still recovering from last night 4th of july
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:47 am

PDO region showing impressive warmth in SST's last 7 days

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

Look at that "stripe" of red across the Equatorial Pacific...signature El Nino look

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:22 am

So Frank still learning but as I recall a strong El Nino sucks for out winter no? But a in between not to weak not to strong is good? I recall reading about DeMartino and yourself see possible return to 2009-10 which as we know was a awesome winter season. Also what do you see in terims of the tropics? I read that typically the first storm isn't until July so we are ahead of schedule but do you think since the Saharan dust is ridiculously wide coverage that close to homebrews will be all our storms this year thus putting the US golf and EC at a higher risk? And sorry lots questions, what do you think July 19-27th will look like for Cape Cod? And up until then will there be enough warmth to make the water bearable? Besides the great white sharks that is.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:58 am

Jman this is a quote from Steve D this morning
 "On the bright side, the Tropical Atlantic could not be more dead in terms of activity."
There doesn't look to be anything in the foreseeable future as far as hurricanes go
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So Frank still learning but as I recall a strong El Nino sucks for out winter no?  But a in between not to weak not to strong is good?  I recall reading about DeMartino and yourself see possible return to 2009-10 which as we know was a awesome winter season.  Also what do you see in terims of the tropics?  I read that typically the first storm isn't until July so we are ahead of schedule but do you think since the Saharan dust is ridiculously wide coverage that close to homebrews will be all our storms this year thus putting the US golf and EC at a higher risk?  And sorry lots questions, what do you think July 19-27th will look like for Cape Cod?  And up until then will there be enough warmth to make the water bearable? Besides the great white sharks that is.

A strong El Nino typically floods our area with warm temperatures. The sub tropical jet stream ends up being too strong and a SE Ridge takes hold over our area. Luckily, dynamical models are not pointing to that as of now. They're saying our Nino will be between a +1.5 to +1.9 intensity, which usually results in good winters for our area. Here are the latest dynamical models:

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Figure42

The tropics are going to be a repeat of last season, if not even less active. The El Nino is much more impressive this summer than last which means trade winds are going to kill any tropical development that attempts to form. That said, yes, you're right that if we do see development it will be along the Gulf Coast or just off the EC. However, since these storms are developing in close proximity to land, they should not be strong. Probably will see mainly Tropical Storms to Category 1 Hurricanes. Obviously those can still inflict damage...but I'm not confident in much happening this season tropics wise. However, it only takes just one to screw things up so bares watching.

In the last week, SST's off the coast have been warming. Cape Cod IMO will remain on the cooler side because the LR outlook does not show much ridging over the EC. But water temps warm naturally in the summer time so they'll likely be warmer than where they are now.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Wksst.20150624

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jul 01, 2015 11:19 am

Boy...the early signals for next winter look fantastic. At the next get together, likely to come in early November, I will have my full winter outlook prepared. Whoever comes will get an early glimpse. The official release date to the public will not happen until near Thanksgiving.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Boy...the early signals for next winter look fantastic. At the next get together, likely to come in early November, I will have my full winter outlook prepared. Whoever comes will get an early glimpse. The official release date to the public will not happen until near Thanksgiving.
I'm a bit perplexed Frank. You seem to be honking at a great winter ahead. I know the PDO is really looking good right now, but if the EL Nino goes strong, that would surely overwhelm the pattern and we torch. Unless of course we end up with a -NAO, which by the way we haven't seen in three years. I'm not throwing cold water on you... just worried with those warm pacific waters getting way out of hand. Best case scenario in my book would be a moderate strength EL Nino coupled with a -NAO.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:58 pm

What about the QBO, which you mentioned messed with this years storms (although this past year was not bad in my book). We have start calling it a whenever we want get together lol, its been more than annual. See you then I hope.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:51 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Boy...the early signals for next winter look fantastic. At the next get together, likely to come in early November, I will have my full winter outlook prepared. Whoever comes will get an early glimpse. The official release date to the public will not happen until near Thanksgiving.
  I'm a bit perplexed Frank. You seem to be honking at a great winter ahead. I know the PDO is really looking good right now, but if the EL Nino goes strong, that would surely overwhelm the pattern and we torch. Unless of course we end up with a -NAO, which by the way we haven't seen in three years. I'm not throwing cold water on you... just worried with those warm pacific waters getting way out of hand. Best case scenario in my book would be a moderate strength EL Nino coupled with a -NAO.

I don't trust the dynamical models in taking the ENSO into very strong territory (>2.0C). SOI is fluctuating between high and medium intensity, so we'll probably see something more between 1.5-1.9C. Analogs with ENSO region 3.4 averaging that temp range show some great winters, including 2009-2010. The PDO is going to help maintain ridging in the western part of the US. So long as that's there, I'm confident this won't be a 2011-2012 type of winter.

@jmanley32 wrote:What about the QBO, which you mentioned messed with this years storms (although this past year was not bad in my book). We have start calling it a whenever we want get together lol, its been more than annual.  See you then I hope.

QBO for next winter is still too early to predict. It does play a role, but I'm still trying to figure it out. Tough oscillation.

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Post by amugs Mon Jul 06, 2015 10:10 pm

I am hoping this is doesn't not come to fruition cause if it does then winter maybe is jeopardy. Unless we get help from the Atlantic we may have issues this winter. a LOT OF TIME TO GO.! Water seems to be warming rapidly in region 3.4 and may reach 2.0 when the July numbers roll in. We do not cool fast enough by this chart but could have a back ended winter.
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Post-564-0-12495000-1436204698

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Post by WOLVES1 Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:30 pm

@amugs wrote:I am hoping this is doesn't not come to fruition cause if it does then winter maybe is jeopardy. Unless we get help from the Atlantic we may have issues this winter. a LOT OF TIME TO GO.! Water seems to be warming rapidly in region 3.4 and may reach 2.0 when the July numbers roll in. We do not cool fast enough by this chart but could have a back ended winter.
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Post-564-0-12495000-1436204698
What should the ideal number be come winter or by what month to help with a good winter for us?
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Post by amugs Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:16 pm

@WOLVES1 wrote:
@amugs wrote:I am hoping this is doesn't not come to fruition cause if it does then winter maybe is jeopardy. Unless we get help from the Atlantic we may have issues this winter. a LOT OF TIME TO GO.! Water seems to be warming rapidly in region 3.4 and may reach 2.0 when the July numbers roll in. We do not cool fast enough by this chart but could have a back ended winter.
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Post-564-0-12495000-1436204698
What should the ideal number be come winter or by what month to help with a good winter for us?

Wolves we would like it below 2 but 1.5 range + or - a few tenths would be great 1.3-1.7 range with of course with some good -AO levels and a neutral to negative -NAO of course would be a good thing as well. If we go above 2 then we run the chance of of the STJ over powering the pattern with warm moist air from the SW/PAC and even gulf region. A lot of time and a lot can change, heck we we were suppose to have strong Nino by fall of 2014 and we were neutral to +.3 to .4 by the time winter rolled in. Some are thinking (Isotherm for one) that the indicators are leaning towards a 1957=58 winter which featured above average snowfall for NYC and a March blizzard. Most of the snow that winter came from mid to late Jan to mid March somewhat of a back end winter as I have been saying. We shall see and I hope this answers your question. Question

Mugs

PS - we have to see what the PDO level is at hopefully positive, the QBO level hopefully neutral at least to double digit positive and a 2 standard deviation plus negative EPO which has driven the last two winters (EPO) that is.

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Post by WOLVES1 Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:56 am

Thank you. Just curious what kind of winter will a La Niña bring us?
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Post by amugs Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:40 am

@WOLVES1 wrote:Thank you. Just curious what kind of winter will a La Niña bring us?

La Nina can bring us an average winter or just above average if I am correct for our area. No big storms all northern jet storms. There are a lot of other variables too that come into play as well.

Here is a link that discusses La Nino and El Nino.

http://www.onthesnow.com/news/photo/584883/la-nina-generally-forces-the-jet-stream-to-take-a-more-northern-track-from-the-pacific-ocean-through-the-u-s-this-increases-the-chance-of-snow-across-the-pacific-northwest-states-like-washington-and-oregon-and-also-can-decrease-snowfall-across-southern-s-id99781#content_pos

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Post by docstox12 Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:07 am

http://news.yahoo.com/u-forecaster-sees-el-nino-likely-northern-hemisphere-131128464.html

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 19, 2015 6:25 pm

Overwhelming data suggests we will see El Nino conditions in the upcoming winter. Where the unknown lies - and will remain that way for at least another couple of months - is how strong this episode gets.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Figure31

ENSO Probabilities from the IRI/CPC forecast say there's at least a 90% chance of El Nino continuing through winter 2015-2016. In case you're not aware we are currently solidly in a +ENSO regime.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Figure1

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Figure6

Impressive charts suggesting we'll continue seeing this El Nino event gradually strengthen. Eventually it will level off, but whether it does so before ENSO region 3.4 reaches 2.0*C or after will have huge impacts on our weather pattern come this winter.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:07 pm

It's looking pretty dry movies forward. Maybe some rain early next week but we will see below normal precip heading into August.

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Post by WOLVES1 Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:54 pm

@amugs wrote:
@WOLVES1 wrote:
@amugs wrote:I am hoping this is doesn't not come to fruition cause if it does then winter maybe is jeopardy. Unless we get help from the Atlantic we may have issues this winter. a LOT OF TIME TO GO.! Water seems to be warming rapidly in region 3.4 and may reach 2.0 when the July numbers roll in. We do not cool fast enough by this chart but could have a back ended winter.
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Post-564-0-12495000-1436204698
What should the ideal number be come winter or by what month to help with a good winter for us?

Wolves we would like it below 2 but 1.5 range + or - a few tenths would be great 1.3-1.7 range with of course with some good -AO levels and a neutral to negative -NAO of course would be a good thing as well. If we go above 2 then we run the chance of of the STJ over powering the pattern with warm moist air from the SW/PAC and even gulf region. A lot of time and a lot can change, heck we we were suppose to have  strong Nino by fall of 2014 and we were neutral to +.3 to .4 by the time winter rolled in. Some are thinking (Isotherm for  one) that the indicators are leaning towards a 1957=58 winter which featured above average snowfall for NYC and a March blizzard. Most of the snow that winter came from mid to late Jan to mid March somewhat of a back end winter as I have been saying. We shall see and I hope this answers your question. Question

Mugs

PS - we have to see what the PDO level is at hopefully positive, the QBO level hopefully neutral at least to double digit positive and a 2 standard deviation plus negative EPO which has driven the last two winters (EPO) that is.
Do you have a good website to track the QBO?
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