NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 8.0

Page 37 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 36, 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:06 am

JMAN or Hurricane Man for you next summer - HAHAHA!!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Post-564-0-37975700-1447333726

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:50 am

@amugs wrote:Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:45 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here

Yes and very good signs - he is a bright and respected weather enthusiast. Lots of great information and when he is wrong he is the first to admit it. Got to love that!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:45 pm

This is a nice look -

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Post-564-0-42060500-1447343600

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by algae888 Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:16 pm

Well if the Euro 10 day ensemble mean is correct then the EPO is definitely going to become negative which should allow colder air to come into the US. How far east does it get will depend on the La Nina type ridge over the southeast. If that ridge breaks down or moves east then we can expect colder than normal temperatures around Thanksgiving
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:19 pm

This is the putrid pattern before what Al and Tony posted about the epo going negative - BITE ME!! We'll be breaking out the shorts with this one - record breaking second Indian Summer incoming!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Post-564-0-34305200-1447355011

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by algae888 Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:30 pm

If anyone wants to see snow they should head out to the Central Plains next week as there will be up to 3 snow events for them. Places as far south as the Texas Panhandle will see snow. The last system could bring snow as far east as the eastern Great Lakes but as I posted above the cold air is going to have a hard time getting anywhere close to us until around Thanksgiving.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by chief7 Thu Nov 12, 2015 4:05 pm

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-2015-346882392.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_PHBrand

chief7

Posts : 116
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-11-10
Location : Langhorne pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 12, 2015 4:22 pm

@amugs wrote:Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

My favorite quote in the entire write up..."The atmosphere is nothing but a sea of chaos that mankind is only now beginning to try to, kind of, sort of retain some semblance of an inkling as to how it operates. Please wrap your mind around that fact before ogling any winter outlook." Its a good mantra

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Nov 12, 2015 5:14 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here
Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 5:47 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here
Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.
.
Could happen from a godzilla or two!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Nov 12, 2015 6:47 pm

The way it sounds of winter starts late with snow we may just get like two weeks of unbievable snow I'll take it lol
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 6:57 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:The way it sounds of winter starts late with snow we may just get like two weeks of unbelievable snow I'll take it lol

Not a late start - mid January or before if things start to happen which some models are trying to show but nothing exciting. Could be from mid Jan to Mid March as the AO and NAO are forecasted in the LR to be in a favorable indicy.
IF we go to the end of Jan with nothing happening (snow,cold, poor positioning of indicies) then it would be considered somewhat of a late start.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Quietace Thu Nov 12, 2015 7:00 pm

@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here
Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.
.
Could happen  from a godzilla or two!!
Or the STJ is so strong that most people outside high elevations are running between 33-40*F with R+

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 12, 2015 7:51 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here
Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.
.
Could happen  from a godzilla or two!!
Or the STJ is so strong that most people outside high elevations are running between 33-40*F with R+

Umm Ryan regarding that R comment.......

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:51 pm

3.4 showed as peaking amd then cooling by Feb

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:03 pm

The long range looks horrific, but it was to be expected homestly. It just sucks that the boring weather pattern from the summer is carrying over into Met Fall. Check out the EURO weeklies.

Next week - temps possibly back in the 70s.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Eps_m_z500a_noram_13

Week 3 (Thanksgiving)

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Eps_m_z500a_noram_27

And while week 4 isn't ideal...it's starting to look a little more Nino to me

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Eps_m_z500a_noram_41




_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:07 pm

Look at this one t - giving week euro ensemble ripped off twitter wsi site

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Post-322-0-57275100-1447364782


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:30 pm

@amugs wrote:Look at this one t - giving week euro ensemble ripped off twitter wsi site

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Post-322-0-57275100-1447364782


If true, this is good news because the Alaskan Vortex would be displaced. However, verbatim our sensible weather would still be on the warm side. Too much energy is digging into the western U.S. leading to -PNA. Check out the weeklies I posted. They too show a ridge in the northeast Pac, but they do a better job showing the higher heights over the east.

It's progress though. This pattern won't change instantly. It's step down.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Snow88 Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:47 pm

Hurricane Schwartz is going with a really warm December and January with Winter really kicking into gear in February. He has 30-38 inches of snow for the winter for Philly.

http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=/philly/news&id=347073842&
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:49 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Hurricane Schwartz is going with a really warm December and January with Winter really kicking into gear in February. He has 30-38 inches of snow for the winter for Philly.

http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=/philly/news&id=347073842&

+6 in January? I'm not seeing that whatsoever.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:24 pm

Frank absoluetlybit would be a good improvement from its really putrid paternity we are in. I saw the weeklies and th eery look horrible. The ens mean I posted I would think is better from a forecast standpoint but who knows. Heck the -pna is and will change but we know the step down process heading into winter.

Schwartz is on Crack +6. Now way if the euro and Jamstec are right maybe +1 fir the month.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Snow88 Fri Nov 13, 2015 8:08 am

The overnight models were an improvement moving forward but it looks like the pattern would be transient.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Quietace Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:01 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here
Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.
.
Could happen  from a godzilla or two!!
Or the STJ is so strong that most people outside high elevations are running between 33-40*F with R+

Umm Ryan regarding that R comment.......
Scott its only the truth. But it seems....

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:35 am

lol! lol! lol! lol!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 37 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 36, 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum