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Long Range Thread 8.0

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:48 am

Step down process in the works as we start Met Winter on Dec 1 - or at least we start to see more normal temps if it holds.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Test8

Not great but 10x better than what we are seeing now.

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:50 am

Nino more west based you think? Look at how region 4 and 3.4 have skyrocketed. Good set up for the trop forcing as anticipated:
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Post-2311-0-74836800-1447425249

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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 12:02 pm

It's looking like next week's warm up may be muted as a backdoor cold front will come through on Tuesday keeping temperatures in the fifties Tuesday and Wednesday which is near normal. Thursday and Friday will be warm but with cloud cover and a chance of rain so low sixties is probably going to do it for next week's warm up.
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 12:11 pm

The long range gfs says bring on the cold starting Thanksgiving week. not believing it yet but with the EPO expected to become negative not out of the realm of possibility.
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 12:41 pm

Cmc gives New York City its first freeze next weekend after that a truly artic air mass will be diving into the western and central part of the US. if you extrapolate out it agrees with the GFS that we should get cold Thanksgiving week. Btw the euro ensembles have been hinting at that for a few days now
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 12:44 pm

So I'm assuming that the ridge that the models showed in the east the last several days will be breaking down sooner rather than later. Hopefully this is true
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Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 13, 2015 12:58 pm

Its been awhile since Ive posted anything of substance. If I have some time today I might try to give my take on the LR (through the end of the month)

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:01 pm

That is quite an t impressive storm system on the GFS for the middle of the country next week. Snow on the backside and severe weather ahead of it. That system will bring non-severe moderate rain to NYC Metro next Friday.

Afterwards, it's possible pattern relaxation occurs and we get a break from the above normal temperatures. Models insist ridging will develop in the northeast Pacific. If true, this will force cold air to sink into the eastern U.S. around Thanksgiving. Not out of question either we see our first widespread snow showers of the season by that time either. We'll see how this plays out. I do caution this is just a break from the warmth, and we'll likely revert back to above normal regime to open December.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 11139401_995951533781870_3965427507594798249_n

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 11027454_995951537115203_6536187687242013628_n

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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:05 pm

I am hearing that the euro has a huge Greenland block day 9 and 10 with the first SWFE of the season. models doing a complete flip from a few days ago but euro CMC and GFS all agree on us getting cold sometime next weekend into Thanksgiving week
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:52 pm

Percolation in the atmosphere as the change of seasons is among us - remember 2009?? - I wrote a lengthy analogy to the same type of set up - could be as we change but not exactly . This will be transient in nature but DEFINITELY a good sign moving forward - keep the faith in BIG MOMMA (mother nature peeps)and she will pay us back.

Also, Trop forcing at the Dateline region is great (if it stays put in this area which all indication show this for the next few months and weakening starting early mid DEC) even if we have a warm Dec - don't cancel winter cause from mid Jan to mid March you will be SORRY!!! MOOHHAHAHAHAHA!

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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:59 pm

@amugs wrote:Percolation in the atmosphere as the change of seasons is among us - remember 2009?? - I wrote a lengthy analogy to the same type of set up - could be as we change but not exactly . This will be transient in nature but DEFINITELY a good sign moving forward - keep the faith in BIG MOMMA (mother nature peeps)and she will pay us back.

Also, Trop forcing at the Dateline region is great (if it stays put in this area which all indication show this for the  next few months and weakening starting early mid DEC)  even if we have a warm Dec - don't cancel winter cause from mid Jan to mid March you will be SORRY!!! MOOHHAHAHAHAHA!
Mugs I agree plus I've been reading that date line forcing in the fall doesn't have the same effect as when it happens in winter. so even though we can have date line forcing now it could end up being warm unlike in winter where we have a better chance for snow and cold
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:03 pm

Wow did anyone see the Euro 10 day ensble mean from today's 12z run. What a huge greenland block. Can't post I'm on my cell phone the CMC is similar the GFS is out to lunch
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:34 pm

All hail king euro
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:50 pm

Check this out as Big WOW!!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Wow.thumb.png.2d3a691c0833920d6e5a096bb54a5ec8

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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:00 pm

@amugs wrote:Check this out as Big WOW!!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Wow.thumb.png.2d3a691c0833920d6e5a096bb54a5ec8
Mugs what's really interesting is that this signal has been there for several days now and its getting stronger by the day Very Happy
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:25 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Check this out as Big WOW!!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Wow.thumb.png.2d3a691c0833920d6e5a096bb54a5ec8
Mugs what's really interesting is that this signal has been there for several days now and its getting stronger by the day Very Happy
Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to give up on December. I know El Nino's typically give us back loaded winters, but we are dealing with an unusual and rare strong basin wide event. Need to watch future Euro and Gfs runs to see if this a transient airmass or something more.
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:39 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Check this out as Big WOW!!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Wow.thumb.png.2d3a691c0833920d6e5a096bb54a5ec8
Mugs what's really interesting is that this signal has been there for several days now and its getting stronger by the day Very Happy
Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to give up on December. I know El Nino's typically give us back loaded winters, but we are dealing with an unusual and rare strong basin wide event. Need to watch future Euro and Gfs runs to see if this a transient airmass or something more.
Nutley I agree when the polar jet stream finally reaches our latitude, which may happen sooner than we think ,our weather will get wild. that doesn't necessarily always mean snow we have to see if they'll be more huggers or more storms at the benchmark. So there could be a lot of snow to rain event or rain events mixed between snow events. The one thing that is not going to be like last year is the prolonged snowpack we had from late January through the middle of March because we will not have as much cold air as last year. however we do not need that much cold air to get plenty of snow here. And while I think we will have a better 2nd half I think December could also produce for us.
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:42 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Check this out as Big WOW!!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Wow.thumb.png.2d3a691c0833920d6e5a096bb54a5ec8
Mugs what's really interesting is that this signal has been there for several days now and its getting stronger by the day Very Happy
Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to give up on December. I know El Nino's typically give us back loaded winters, but we are dealing with an unusual and rare strong basin wide event. Need to watch future Euro and Gfs runs to see if this a transient airmass or something more.

Agree 2009 possibly unprecedented nino with OFF the charts basin wide warming concentrated out to the dateline. Forcing come winter and early spring is much different than summer and fall when out by the DL.
Flip on a dime?? Maybe not but 10000x better than this pattern presently. EURO ENS last night and EPS today, nwe'd a few more rus and then we may see the change as oart if the stepo down process.

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:48 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Check this out as Big WOW!!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Wow.thumb.png.2d3a691c0833920d6e5a096bb54a5ec8
Mugs what's really interesting is that this signal has been there for several days now and its getting stronger by the day Very Happy
Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to give up on December. I know El Nino's typically give us back loaded winters, but we are dealing with an unusual and rare strong basin wide event. Need to watch future Euro and Gfs runs to see if this a transient airmass or something more.
Nutley I agree when the polar jet stream finally reaches our latitude, which may happen sooner than we think ,our weather will get wild. that doesn't necessarily always mean snow we have to see if they'll be more huggers or more storms at the benchmark. So there could be a lot of snow to rain event or rain events mixed between snow events. The one thing that is not going to be like last year is the prolonged snowpack we had from late January through the middle of March because we will not have as much cold air as last year. however we do not need that much cold air to get plenty of snow here. And while I think we will have a better 2nd half I think December could also produce for us.

Al, true but do not discount a 1-2 Standard Deviation negative EPO this winter and sustained dye to the western forcing from El nino causing a feedback in the atmosphere. Could be wrong but only time will tell. Could have snow pack from late jan through mid March. Oh and do not forget Mr AO and NAO they can do some damage on the Cild end as well. If NAO and AO couplet go negative and EPO is neutral to 1-2 SD negative than we hold snowpack as long as they hold. Time will tell.

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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 7:05 pm

The 18z gfs just misses with the major East Coast storm next weekend. today's euro deterministic ao tanks to almost -5. hard to believe but if December ends up blocky and wintry most winter forecast will bust. going to be interesting to see how all this plays out.
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 13, 2015 8:32 pm

Poop may get real come mid December r if the chi 200 maps tell the story by pushing 5he trop forcing out to the dateline. This will pump the stj and force the ridge in the epac or pull it out further west and allow the pna to spike causing downstream conditions . We'll see if this comes to fruition.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Post-564-0-20822200-1447444429

OLR maps have it returned here already - if so we need to revamp our cfs model. Models usually lag with these conditions as was explained to me by nws met.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Olr.anom.7day

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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 8:53 pm

here are some maps of what I posted today. very busy at work last two weeks. can't post from my phone.
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Test8
nuclear -nao
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Post-2035-0-25230400-1447449050
last nights euro
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Post-2035-0-08309500-1447449081
today's
also this is not day 10 or 14 it starts at day 5.


Last edited by algae888 on Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 8:57 pm

euro hr 192
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_9
looks like its squeezing the polar vortex south.
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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:03 pm

gfs18z  ensemble 2m temp days 11-15
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 CXuyQ5g
hoping models hold on to this pattern shift. can't wait to hear scott and frank's thoughts
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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 14, 2015 2:06 am

I honestly don't think that I can say that I've ever seen anything like this:

Tonight's 00z GFS Op:

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 38 GFS_00_opNH_H500DP_0156

That Omega is literally off the charts. Crazy.

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