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June 2015 Obs and Discussion

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Tue Jun 16, 2015 11:14 pm

This from Isotherm - one of our own

ECMWF weeklies continue with the idea of a weak trough in the Northeast from late June through mid July. Our area is projected to fall between the 582-588dm height lines much of the time, a zone typically favored for enhanced convection around the classic "ring of fire" heat ridge. The pattern will likely grow more conducive for Northeastern T-storms outbreaks as we head into late June and July

This from research on EML's that we will see during this time frame- how do i post a power point??

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:03 pm

@amugs wrote:This from Isotherm - one of our own

ECMWF weeklies continue with the idea of a weak trough in the Northeast from late June through mid July. Our area is projected to fall between the 582-588dm height lines much of the time, a zone typically favored for enhanced convection around the classic "ring of fire" heat ridge. The pattern will likely grow more conducive for Northeastern T-storms outbreaks as we head into late June and July

This from research on EML's that we will see during this time frame- how do i post a power point??
It's looking more and more like a humid summer without the intense heat. That's ok by me... never liked the hot weather anyway. At least there will be lots of severe weather potential to track.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:46 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@amugs wrote:This from Isotherm - one of our own

ECMWF weeklies continue with the idea of a weak trough in the Northeast from late June through mid July. Our area is projected to fall between the 582-588dm height lines much of the time, a zone typically favored for enhanced convection around the classic "ring of fire" heat ridge. The pattern will likely grow more conducive for Northeastern T-storms outbreaks as we head into late June and July

This from research on EML's that we will see during this time frame- how do i post a power point??
It's looking more and more like a humid summer without the intense heat. That's ok by me... never liked the hot weather anyway. At least there will be lots of severe weather potential to track.

Nuts,

Absolutely - In a blog I have I said this - more humid than hot temps - 80's and humid - Mr. Nino and SE ridge/Bermuda high or how about this weather weenies from my Understanding the Weather course at Montclair State (then ) College in 1987 - Hadley High ?? Anyone? Anyone?? Crickets.................chirp........................chirp................

I know I was a weather geek - I was the only person in the class to read all 35 chapters!!!!!! Aced (like you Ryan - Ace) the course with an A.

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:05 pm

Today is another top 10 day, sunny, no humidity, breezy, 73 right now at 1 in the afternoon.

Give me this all summer and you can keep the 80's and the humidity. Still no 90's yet and I'll be happy to keep it that way.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 18, 2015 11:27 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@amugs wrote:This from Isotherm - one of our own

ECMWF weeklies continue with the idea of a weak trough in the Northeast from late June through mid July. Our area is projected to fall between the 582-588dm height lines much of the time, a zone typically favored for enhanced convection around the classic "ring of fire" heat ridge. The pattern will likely grow more conducive for Northeastern T-storms outbreaks as we head into late June and July

This from research on EML's that we will see during this time frame- how do i post a power point??
It's looking more and more like a humid summer without the intense heat. That's ok by me... never liked the hot weather anyway. At least there will be lots of severe weather potential to track.

Agree... I can be without the intense heat. That is never fun.


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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jun 18, 2015 7:28 pm

Id rather it be very hot with no humidity honestly. Been to Colorado when its 90-100 and its really quite bearable compared to 80's and humid. Amazing how well defined bill still looked over night and today SOOO far inland, what can that be attributed too? I mean I do not ever recal lseeing pegetti models being posted from oklahoma!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jun 18, 2015 7:28 pm

Sounds like a ruined fathers day, that stinks was gonna have a fun day at the park.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Sounds like a ruined fathers day, that stinks was gonna have  a fun day at the park.

Actually, we may be in some luck.

We could see the bulk of the rain move in Saturday afternoon, around 6pm, and be out by Sunday mid to late morning.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jun 19, 2015 7:43 am

Oh gr8 the forecast said all day Sunday. Let's hope, will still b really wet out if we get 1 to 2 inches in that time.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jun 19, 2015 7:55 am

I think we need A lot of luck
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:17 am

jman Got neice wedding Sat in Nassau County They are doing part oustside starting at 7pm for one hour whats the chance??? Thanks

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:11 am

It's the Nam vs GFS and Euro. Nam has heaviest rain to the north in northern New Jersey and long island and the GFS/Euro are 100 miles south into Cnj and snj.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 19, 2015 12:53 pm

@oldtimer wrote:jman    Got neice wedding Sat in Nassau County  They are doing part oustside starting at 7pm for one hour  whats the chance??? Thanks

You should be ok. Mainly cloudy with maybe a shower.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 19, 2015 12:54 pm

Heaviest rain will fall Sunday at 7am

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8

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Post by oldtimer Fri Jun 19, 2015 12:56 pm

Thanks Frank Hope everything well with you

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jun 19, 2015 5:48 pm

Dang that's really heavy.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jun 20, 2015 7:29 am

http://www.weather.gov/okx/

Hey, CP, wherever you are.Check this map out.AGAIN, the heavy precip goes S and E of us.No ratios to help out on this one, rain is rain.

Hazy sun but clouds rolling in.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jun 20, 2015 8:29 am

GFS is still showing heavy rain Sunday morning

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5

So is the GGEM

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6

There will be a break in the action between 1-6pm, but more rain to come for those north of NYC by early evening.

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Post by sabamfa Sat Jun 20, 2015 12:59 pm

I have concert tickets out in Stanhope tomorrow night. What are you thinking for NNJ around 5-6pm and around 10-11pm Sunday?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 20, 2015 3:14 pm

I believe all the rain will be over by sunday night but I could be wrong. Bill is still trucking holding quite a spin, and its not moving very fast, by this time it was supposed to speed up so we could be in trouble in terms of flood potential. Since it has a circulation is svr wx also a possibility or is it not tropical enough in nature anymore to spawn such as tornados etc.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 20, 2015 3:16 pm

Looking to the west there is svr tstorm watch and some warnings, its really going to depending where this thing goes.
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Post by amugs Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:40 pm

Okay after this next 12 -14 hour time frame of heavy rain we look to a possibly an potential very severe set up in the making Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime. Temps will pump into the 90* range with humidity and EML and instability in the atmosphere. Check out t his map for the cape instability. May even see a tornado or two or three spawn in the area of light blue. scary but still some time to go.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Mlcape1872

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 20, 2015 7:23 pm

Be interesting to see if SPC, puts out a rare 4-8 day forecast if thats true. Thats pushing 2500-3000 CAPE wowza, ya that would be some svr wx for sure. I know there are other parameters but thats unstable to the max.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jun 20, 2015 8:18 pm

Anyone have an idea of wind potential for tonight looks impressive
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 20, 2015 8:44 pm

Ha you'd think I would know right, well I dont belong to any sites now but I would think its possible especially down there you could see tstorms with wind.
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