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June 2015 Obs and Discussion

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aiannone
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:35 pm

Is it just me or does that storm over PA on the western side look like a hook echo, it is moving into a area thats conducive for tornado development. Or is it just a odd shape?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:36 pm

algae888 wrote:Jman it looks like some storms are starting to pop now although most of them look to be north of the city there's one cell that looks like its going to hit Yonkers head on still not very impressive and will last probably less than 15 minutes but that one looks nasty

How long do you think? Yes maybe less those storms are moving 50-65mph to east, thats gonna slam winds into where ever it goes.

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:39 pm

That cell is blowing up, I may be in trouble. very odd backward bow shape.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:42 pm

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SKYTOP TO ANALOMINK TO EAST BANGOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 75
MPH.


Holy Crap!
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:48 pm

They going to extend watch like I expected:

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD
COVER...MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN/FAR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
A RELATED INCREASE IN SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NY
AS OF 245 PM EDT/1845Z. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST
GLANCING INFLUENCES OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS...EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINEAR BANDS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE THE MORE PREVALENT CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE/SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by 1190ftalt Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:54 pm

Heavy rain now and very windy in Stillwater NJ, wind gusts
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:09 pm

YAWN

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Mannyjaffe Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:31 pm

Lol. My thoughts exactly.  
So,  I'm curious why you weren't excited like so many seemed to be about this "outbreak." I know it's early but you weren't exactly raving even with all of these parameters. Whats missing? So far anyways..

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by algae888 Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:34 pm

Jman it looks like that severe thunderstorm is going to miss you to the north so close that you can smell it.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:35 pm

Al it actually dropped the warning so no biggie. It looks like that was our only shot, unless something pops behind it. I can see the dark clouds to the north.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:37 pm

Watch was extended to 9pm.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:40 pm

Mannyjaffe wrote:Lol. My thoughts exactly.  
So,  I'm curious why you weren't excited like so many seemed to be about this "outbreak." I know it's early but you weren't exactly raving even with all of these parameters. Whats missing? So far anyways..

There are a couple of things I can point to:

1. Its been clear to me since the morning the best severe weather parameters will be to our south. While conditions were improving around late morning, an MCS burst (the rain that NW NJ and SNY got) helped stabilize our atmosphere a bit.

2. Two factors that I lean heavily on when it comes to severe weather are CIN and CAPE. We had a decent amount of each, however, those to our south had a lot of CAPE while those to our north had very little CIN. We were stuck in the middle and no one likes to be in the middle. The same applies to the weather. It's better to have an extreme of one signal than it is to have a little bit of both.

3. Seasonal trend. All our storms this season have fizzled out when they approached the coast. While it's not a main driver, it needs to be taken into consideration. Too much CIN is a reason for that, in combination with the Apps to our west.

That said, there are still a couple of hours to see if a cell pops up around our area but Philly Metro looks to have a much better shot. Central NJ should also be on the lookout. We'll see how radar looks 1 hour from now.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:43 pm

Just a quick downpour here, then done. Has anyone else noticed the radar seems to be depicting conditions far worse than they really are? I thought I was going to get my a$$ kicked, but nothing to write home about...happened the last time too.

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Post by Dtone Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Watch was extended to 9pm.

Jman, you under that Tstorm?

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Post by Dtone Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:47 pm

Severe Tstorm warning for Westchester, Putnam, & Fairfield, Western New Haven CT

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:48 pm

I wonder if Doc and CP got anything? Seems like a nice little storm rolled through there

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Post by Mannyjaffe Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:50 pm

Appreciate the analysis!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:53 pm

Mannyjaffe wrote:Appreciate the analysis!

Np!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:55 pm

UHG, being in the middle stinks! Those are nice storms that are firing up in SW CT. Check out what the PHL/DC area are in store for. WOW. Some of these storms have a slight upward motion to them so maybe CNJ and Jersey Shore get into some of this. NYC Metro may just be in too bad of a spot.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Post-747-0-22953600-1435089098

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:59 pm

Dtone wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Watch was extended to 9pm.

Jman, you under that Tstorm?
Nope missed me. Frank u are amazing. I can clearly see the gap storms to north and south. Temp and instability rose here but nothing on radar. U need write to spc lol.
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Post by oldtimer Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:00 pm

And Long Island Frank ??

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:01 pm

Well now I don't care as I have go into a training from 6 to 8 in city so if there is a storm I'd b pissed I missed it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:02 pm

oldtimer wrote:And Long Island  Frank ??

Not thinking anything severe. Maybe a thunderstorm or shower.

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Post by Dtone Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:04 pm

Humid and upper 90s down there. Id like to see that line crash into that.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:12 pm

T-storm watch for most of NJ

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 11 Ww0346_radar

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:20 pm

My high today is 96* currently at 95* dewpoint at 75 and its an official heatwave 3 days of 90s
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Post by algae888 Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Well now I don't care as I have go into a training from 6 to 8 in city so if there is a storm I'd b pissed I missed it.
Jman now I can guarantee we'll have a severe thunderstorm between six and eight pm.lol
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