June 2015 Obs and Discussion
+21
aiannone
sabamfa
oldtimer
nutleyblizzard
1190ftalt
RJB8525
algae888
GreyBeard
skinsfan1177
Math23x7
ak926
Snow88
snow247
Dtone
Quietace
Dunnzoo
Frank_Wx
CPcantmeasuresnow
jmanley32
docstox12
amugs
25 posters
Page 11 of 16
Page 11 of 16 • 1 ... 7 ... 10, 11, 12 ... 16
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Is it just me or does that storm over PA on the western side look like a hook echo, it is moving into a area thats conducive for tornado development. Or is it just a odd shape?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
algae888 wrote:Jman it looks like some storms are starting to pop now although most of them look to be north of the city there's one cell that looks like its going to hit Yonkers head on still not very impressive and will last probably less than 15 minutes but that one looks nasty
How long do you think? Yes maybe less those storms are moving 50-65mph to east, thats gonna slam winds into where ever it goes.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
That cell is blowing up, I may be in trouble. very odd backward bow shape.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT
* AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SKYTOP TO ANALOMINK TO EAST BANGOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 75
MPH.
Holy Crap!
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT
* AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SKYTOP TO ANALOMINK TO EAST BANGOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 75
MPH.
Holy Crap!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
They going to extend watch like I expected:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD
COVER...MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN/FAR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
A RELATED INCREASE IN SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NY
AS OF 245 PM EDT/1845Z. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST
GLANCING INFLUENCES OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS...EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINEAR BANDS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE THE MORE PREVALENT CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE/SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD
COVER...MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN/FAR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
A RELATED INCREASE IN SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NY
AS OF 245 PM EDT/1845Z. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST
GLANCING INFLUENCES OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS...EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINEAR BANDS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE THE MORE PREVALENT CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE/SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Heavy rain now and very windy in Stillwater NJ, wind gusts
1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 389
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Stillwater, NJ
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
YAWN
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Lol. My thoughts exactly.
So, I'm curious why you weren't excited like so many seemed to be about this "outbreak." I know it's early but you weren't exactly raving even with all of these parameters. Whats missing? So far anyways..
So, I'm curious why you weren't excited like so many seemed to be about this "outbreak." I know it's early but you weren't exactly raving even with all of these parameters. Whats missing? So far anyways..
Mannyjaffe- Posts : 15
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-01-01
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Jman it looks like that severe thunderstorm is going to miss you to the north so close that you can smell it.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Al it actually dropped the warning so no biggie. It looks like that was our only shot, unless something pops behind it. I can see the dark clouds to the north.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Watch was extended to 9pm.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Mannyjaffe wrote:Lol. My thoughts exactly.
So, I'm curious why you weren't excited like so many seemed to be about this "outbreak." I know it's early but you weren't exactly raving even with all of these parameters. Whats missing? So far anyways..
There are a couple of things I can point to:
1. Its been clear to me since the morning the best severe weather parameters will be to our south. While conditions were improving around late morning, an MCS burst (the rain that NW NJ and SNY got) helped stabilize our atmosphere a bit.
2. Two factors that I lean heavily on when it comes to severe weather are CIN and CAPE. We had a decent amount of each, however, those to our south had a lot of CAPE while those to our north had very little CIN. We were stuck in the middle and no one likes to be in the middle. The same applies to the weather. It's better to have an extreme of one signal than it is to have a little bit of both.
3. Seasonal trend. All our storms this season have fizzled out when they approached the coast. While it's not a main driver, it needs to be taken into consideration. Too much CIN is a reason for that, in combination with the Apps to our west.
That said, there are still a couple of hours to see if a cell pops up around our area but Philly Metro looks to have a much better shot. Central NJ should also be on the lookout. We'll see how radar looks 1 hour from now.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Just a quick downpour here, then done. Has anyone else noticed the radar seems to be depicting conditions far worse than they really are? I thought I was going to get my a$$ kicked, but nothing to write home about...happened the last time too.
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4868
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:Watch was extended to 9pm.
Jman, you under that Tstorm?
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Severe Tstorm warning for Westchester, Putnam, & Fairfield, Western New Haven CT
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
I wonder if Doc and CP got anything? Seems like a nice little storm rolled through there
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Appreciate the analysis!
Mannyjaffe- Posts : 15
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-01-01
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Mannyjaffe wrote:Appreciate the analysis!
Np!
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
UHG, being in the middle stinks! Those are nice storms that are firing up in SW CT. Check out what the PHL/DC area are in store for. WOW. Some of these storms have a slight upward motion to them so maybe CNJ and Jersey Shore get into some of this. NYC Metro may just be in too bad of a spot.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Nope missed me. Frank u are amazing. I can clearly see the gap storms to north and south. Temp and instability rose here but nothing on radar. U need write to spc lol.Dtone wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Watch was extended to 9pm.
Jman, you under that Tstorm?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
And Long Island Frank ??
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 77
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Well now I don't care as I have go into a training from 6 to 8 in city so if there is a storm I'd b pissed I missed it.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20479
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
oldtimer wrote:And Long Island Frank ??
Not thinking anything severe. Maybe a thunderstorm or shower.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Humid and upper 90s down there. Id like to see that line crash into that.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
T-storm watch for most of NJ
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
My high today is 96* currently at 95* dewpoint at 75 and its an official heatwave 3 days of 90s
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion
Jman now I can guarantee we'll have a severe thunderstorm between six and eight pm.loljmanley32 wrote:Well now I don't care as I have go into a training from 6 to 8 in city so if there is a storm I'd b pissed I missed it.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Page 11 of 16 • 1 ... 7 ... 10, 11, 12 ... 16
Page 11 of 16
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|