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June 2015 Obs and Discussion

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:54 am

@algae888 wrote:Frank where in the long-range thread is there an update on the NAO I don't see it.

It is on the 1st page. You already commented on it, haha.

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:23 am

Attention shifts to the weekend with a weak coastal storm. The 00z GFS shows H5 closing off late Saturday which helps to slow down the coastal system and direct it up the coast.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_19

The GFS has the storm taking a path from west PA - NEPA - CNE

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_17

GGEM is much different. Cuts the storm off over the Ohio Valley and the rain that falls over our area is associated more with a warm front. Even pops a secondary off the coast late Sunday.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_19

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_21

Timing and evolution is completely different on both models. Judging off Ewall it looks like the EURO is more in line with the GFS. Both scenarios give us rain, just the timing is different.




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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:53 pm

Timing update:

Rain beginning between 9-11am Saturday and lasting into early Sunday morning. Lingering clouds and showers expected through most of Sunday.

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:55 pm

That stinks birthday celebration on Sat I guess will have to be indoors. Actual b-day is sunday but I can't celebrate on a work night lol. CT had major damage especially New Haven CT and Durham and points east of there. I saw many pics it was bad huge trees splintered or uprooted and quite a few houses totally destroyed. Sad. I am hoping nothing happened to my parents house, of course I move here and they have 4 svr t-storms warnings in a row (all different) in the course of a few hrs! I never saw that in my life,, or that I can remember.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:49 pm

Hit 90° today for high that's four in a row currently at 89° with 49% humidity feels great
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:36 pm

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 1947900_10153299269808796_4853222845696047493_n

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:47 am

51 this morning, gotta love it.

Still hasn't hit 90 here, only one day in NYC, my kind of summer let's hope it stays this way.
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by ak926 Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:19 am

55 here this morning !
No 90's here yet also, 2 days of 88 degrees max though.

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:55 am

58° here this morning feels great outside low humidity. Had four days of 90s
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:56 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:51 this morning, gotta love it.

Still hasn't hit 90 here, only one day in NYC, my kind of summer let's hope it stays this way.

CP from what Frank has said it looks like we stay cool going into july
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:13 am

Is tomorrow a washout or just some rain in the morning?
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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:36 am

Pleasant shift with the models overnight. Turns out GGEM is right. This will not be a coastal storm - it is going to cut inland - meaning most of our rain comes from a cold front. Rain may not start on Saturday until after 12pm-1pm. It will be heavy late afternoon into the overnight hours, but we should clear out between 8-10am Sunday morning.

This means our morning on Saturday and most of the day Sunday will be RAIN FREE.

PRAISE JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will let you know tomorrow if this is still the case. Still 1-2 inches of rain expected.

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:37 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Is tomorrow a washout or just some rain in the morning?

Little rain in the morning. Not even half an inch expected.

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by gigs68 Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:27 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Pleasant shift with the models overnight. Turns out GGEM is right. This will not be a coastal storm - it is going to cut inland - meaning most of our rain comes from a cold front. Rain may not start on Saturday until after 12pm-1pm. It will be heavy late afternoon into the overnight hours, but we should clear out between 8-10am Sunday morning.

This means our morning on Saturday and most of the day Sunday will be RAIN FREE.

PRAISE JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will let you know tomorrow if this is still the case. Still 1-2 inches of rain expected.

Frank,

I'm supposed to go to a 4:10pm Met Game on Saturday. Do you think it will be a rainout?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:19 pm

HI

Hope everyone is doing well and enjoyed their Father's Day?!! This is such a crazy time of year with school ending...baseball-son's team won the minor's divisional last night!!
Frank I have a vacation question for you...what do you see for the next few weeks in the area...we will be traveling on our boat. This year we will be exploring the Ct River... Thanks!!

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June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 14 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:29 pm

@gigs68 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Pleasant shift with the models overnight. Turns out GGEM is right. This will not be a coastal storm - it is going to cut inland - meaning most of our rain comes from a cold front. Rain may not start on Saturday until after 12pm-1pm. It will be heavy late afternoon into the overnight hours, but we should clear out between 8-10am Sunday morning.

This means our morning on Saturday and most of the day Sunday will be RAIN FREE.

PRAISE JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will let you know tomorrow if this is still the case. Still 1-2 inches of rain expected.

Frank,

I'm supposed to go to a 4:10pm Met Game on Saturday.  Do you think it will be a rainout?

Hello gigs,

Rain is expected to move in between 1-2pm on Saturday. It will start as showers then get progressively heavier, especially between 5-6pm. I would say this game has a good chance of being rained out. They may start it and try to get through 5 innings.

@weatherwatchermom wrote:HI

Hope everyone is doing well and enjoyed their Father's Day?!! This is such a crazy time of year with school ending...baseball-son's team won the minor's divisional last night!!
Frank I have a vacation question for you...what do you see for the next few weeks in the area...we will be traveling on our boat. This year we will be exploring the Ct River... Thanks!!

Joanne Smile

Hi Joanne,

If you can give me specific dates and locations, that would be better. A quick glance at the models suggests we'll be in a mainly normal to below normal temp. regime over the next couple of weeks with frequent rain chances.

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Post by algae888 Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:23 pm

rain missing us to the south so far. looks like we could end up try thurs and Friday with the first wave. today was very pleasant day. lets see what happens with the second wave sat afternoon and night.
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Post by amugs Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:19 pm

We get drenched tomorrow, lovely as I am to have my best friends son grad poolnpatyy. Looks lime party moving indoors, good thing I made 3 vat software bailey's! ! drunken

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:29 pm

I have a grad party too tomorrow, and a concert at PNC Bank Arts Center...tough in the rain...but should be clear for the Mets game Sunday...maybe I'll be lucky and get to see a double header! LGM!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jun 27, 2015 4:36 am

I have a outdoor wedding ugh
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:58 am

The rain is moving in very early. And dayum look at how heavy they getting it to our west. But that looks to rotate away from here.
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Post by ak926 Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:02 am

The rain is ahead of schedule ( forecast )

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:15 am

Wayy ahead glad I didn't keep my midday outdoor plans.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:39 am

Maybe just a few sprinkles this morning, lots of virga on that radar... even still, heavy rain wasn't expected until later in the day and overnight..

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Post by oldtimer Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:48 am

jman Got Wedding in New Rochelle 69 miles from Port Jefferson I guess I will get into some heavy stuff Its at Country Club on the water

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