NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Page 3 of 16 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9 ... 16  Next

Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:26 pm

I would like to learn on this page what numbers put together make the most volatile for tornados svr storms etc. I know cape and shear are important but the others I am not so clear on. You can click on any area and it will give you the list, what does the blocked area on each one mean, if the numbers are within that field that's the most chances?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#



jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:27 pm

@algae888 wrote:highly unlikely we will see any severe weather east of Hudson as strong sea breeze/coastal front has set up. temps over most of li in the 60's an.d temps are now falling in coastal sections
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FARMINGDALE    SUNNY     71  60  68 SW22G37   29.89F
ISLIP          PTSUNNY   71  59  65 S18G29    29.90F
SHIRLEY        CLOUDY    71  60  68 S21G28    29.92F
WESTHAMPTON    CLOUDY    69  60  73 S18G29    29.94F
MONTAUK POINT    N/A     65  57  75 S10G20    29.96F
$$

nws disco...
ENOUGH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS FAR NW ZONES OF
ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP THERE WITH PEAK DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY
AND WRN PASSAIC COUNTIES AFTER 21Z...WHERE SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG
WILL HELP FUEL TSTMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
25-30 KT...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM S TO SW WITH HEIGHT...WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS OR ROTATING
STORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.
severe weather per spc and nws is well west of city

Hey Al, long time, how u been?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by algae888 Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:40 pm

jman i'm good. weather boring so far this spring. moderate to strong el-nino not good for our area. big hurricanes in the pacific though so far. nobody pays attention to those because they have little chance of making landfall. at least off the west coast of mex and US.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:47 pm

Still amazing to see those monsters form. Its a good thing they do not have a lot of land to head towards. Yeah I pray Frank is wrong about the El Nino sticking around for winter or this place may be pretty quiet until 2016-17. I will say the nice weather is good in some respects, but some excitement would be nice.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:11 pm

Unique ridge/trough orientation in the west will put us under a southwesterly flow the end of this week.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_namer_24

Looks warm Thursday & Friday with temps in the upper 80's. Man, look at Virginia. Wow.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_T2m_neus_14

With the -EPO returning, we could see numerous northern stream disturbances drop into the country and bring us rain over the course of the next couple of weeks. Models do look somewhat active.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:19 pm

Jman - between 6pm and 11pm is when I would be on the lookout for possible severe storms. Those cells in PA are reporting damaging winds. Even some tornado warnings. But how "severe" they stay by the time they get here is in question.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:21 pm

I must say, pretty impressive line.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Capture

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:23 pm

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Capture

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:27 pm

Madonne (in your words), they are holding up big time over the mountains, but like you and Al both eluded to can't be sure what level they will be at as they near the area. Thanks though, the earlier part of that time frame is when I will be getting home so lets hope I beat any rain.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:29 pm

Watch was just expanded into NW and North central NJ, watch out over there.

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Ww027810
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by RJB8525 Mon Jun 08, 2015 4:41 pm

ahh, i get to taste some warren county severe weather. moved from S.I to Hackettstown last week
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:24 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:ahh, i get to taste some warren county severe weather. moved from S.I to Hackettstown last week

NICE! That's where I work

Your winter is going to be much better, probably.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by RJB8525 Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@RJB8525 wrote:ahh, i get to taste some warren county severe weather. moved from S.I to Hackettstown last week

NICE! That's where I work

Your winter is going to be much better, probably.

i hope so lol
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:36 pm

Incoming...

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:43 pm

Seriously look at that bow echo, thats gotta be packing winds.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Quietace Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:25 pm

My sunflowers need the rain....

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by ak926 Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:39 pm

The impressive line of thunderstorms appears to have died as it reached my location. Abit of LTG and thunder west and SW, wind gust to 20mph, .04 of rain. Temp did drop 10 degrees.

ak926

Posts : 117
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2015-03-26
Location : Rockaway, NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:47 pm

Yeah it looks like they weaken a bit
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by ak926 Mon Jun 08, 2015 9:00 pm

I got excited looking at the radar a few hours ago ! Hackettstown to my west may have got it good. How was it RJB8525 out your way ?

ak926

Posts : 117
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2015-03-26
Location : Rockaway, NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by algae888 Mon Jun 08, 2015 9:09 pm

with temps in 60's in the city and coast and sun down, storms had little to no chance of being severe in these areas.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jun 08, 2015 9:16 pm

The southern part of the line still looks impressive
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 08, 2015 9:17 pm

Awful. Boring. Winter please.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:36 am

Really decreased to nothing here in Bergen County, .25" of rain, that's it...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Awful. Boring. Winter please.

I hope we don't say that about our winter this year with that strong El Nino forcasted.

jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Guest Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:52 pm

I hate this time of year for weather. With the still cool ocean waters all thunderstorms form and skirt Long Island's north shore into CT. Happens ALL THE TIME. Freakin marine layer. Right now as I type this there's a monster storm that moved from the Bronx to Long Island Sound due north of Bayville. Last 2 days NW and Central Jersey Through lower Hudson Valley and Ct see 2" of rain. Me here on LI .13"

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

June 2015 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: June 2015 Obs and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 16 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9 ... 16  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum