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July 2015 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jul 01, 2015 11:23 am

Happy July!! Just 2 months of Meteorological summer left. Make the best of it before September rolls around and the cooler air tries to come in...

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  MonthTDeptNRCC

June ended near normal to slightly below. This will be the case all summer long (evidenced by my summer outlook).

It has been wetter than I expected. We'll see if we get into a dry pattern at all over the next 2 months.

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Post by amugs Wed Jul 01, 2015 10:51 pm

Well, kid (Frank) we started off July with a friggin bang, literally.
Out all day so 1st time being able to post.
Recorded 1.20" of rain from the 4:30 AM wicked t-storm - 32 mph gusts, cloud to ground lightening - lost power for 4 hours and torrential rains. WE would need maybe 2" more for the rest of the summer to be 'dry" for my neck of the woods. With the convective nature and the trough hanging in SE Canada it may be tough.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jul 02, 2015 4:57 am

One thing I have noticed my high temps all summer are higher than forcasted yesterday hit 88° was only forcasted for low 80
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Post by aiannone Thu Jul 02, 2015 10:45 am

Happy July! Up at my friend's house in Milton, VT (about 10mi north of Burlington), and it's nice and cool 65* with a dew point of 48*. Just gorgeous!
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jul 02, 2015 11:31 am

While 4th of July will not be a washout...it does not look like a great day. Onshore flow = clouds and scattered showers

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 02, 2015 2:52 pm

Wow look at the rain over the ocean! Ahh well that just means the idiots in my neighborhood will get wet blowing their fingers off.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jul 02, 2015 4:39 pm

Weather went from looking great to crap real fast for the 4th

Oh well

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Post by Quietace Thu Jul 02, 2015 5:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Weather went from looking great to crap real fast for the 4th

Oh well
Its busier at work when the weathers crappier.....no BBQing just ordering out... Sad

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:02 pm

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

Sad Sad GFS Model

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jul 02, 2015 8:23 pm

Why why why thought it was going to be nice ugh
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:08 am

It looks ugly the GFS has over a inch! Hopefully ISIS gets depressed in crappy weather and will thwart their "terror" plans, in case no one has seen the news about this.

This ones for Math, I do not recall a recent year where we had a crappy 4th, when was the last rained out 4th?
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Post by Dtone Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:31 am

Wasnt last year a cool and rainy 4th? It sucked..if i remember right.
Before that I think its been a stretch of mostly sunny & hot july 4ths.

I guess I'm late but what the hell happend to July 4th forecast. I been to busy to keep track but it looked good less than 24 hrs ago.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jul 03, 2015 5:33 am

Can anyone explain why the sudden change in weather on the 4th thank you
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jul 03, 2015 7:43 am

The models had a LP heading east south of us in Virginia earlier in the week, keeping us in the clear. It is now headed for south jersey, spinning showers in from an onshore flow. Doesn't look too heavy and if you put off bbq until late in the day, you should be ok. No guarantees though, one model run showed heavy rain Saturday evening.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:10 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:The models had a LP heading east south of us in Virginia earlier in the week, keeping us in the clear. It is now headed for south jersey, spinning showers in from an onshore flow. Doesn't look too heavy and if you put off bbq until late in the day, you should be ok. No guarantees though, one model run showed heavy rain Saturday evening.

Good post.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jul 03, 2015 10:32 am

53 this morning. Just awesome.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:13 am

00z GFS has .75 to 1 inche from the afternoon into evening, ugg, 06z is substantially less keeping the heavier to the north but may not spare upper hudson valley. A 1009mb LP is going to skirt further north than expected like dunzoo explained
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:24 am

Today's 12Z RGEM does not have much in the way of heavy rain for NYC tomorrow.  In fact, based on that model the rain should clear by the time the fireworks are set to start.  Of course, it will not be the beautiful day that we hoped earlier in the week, but at least it's something.  We'll see if later RGEM runs keep this up.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:30 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:53 this morning. Just awesome.

This summer has your name all over it. So far...

@Math23x7 wrote:Today's 12Z RGEM does not have much in the way of heavy rain for NYC tomorrow.  In fact, based on that model the rain should clear by the time the fireworks are set to start.  Of course, it will not be the beautiful day that we hoped earlier in the week, but at least it's something.  We'll see if later RGEM runs keep this up.

Yea..we legit went from beautiful day with a High in place to overcast with periods of rain. What a load of mule balls.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:53 am

12z GFS still wet for tomorrow. About .50-.75" of rain:

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6

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Post by amugs Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:03 pm

Beautiful day today and then it turns to poop tomorrow - jeez!!!

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Post by algae888 Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:12 pm

frank nam completely dry and as math said not much rain on rgem. think gfs is up to its usual tricks nws has less than .25" forecast atm for most of the area
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:33 pm

Models were only showing a little rain, with one cell throwing down a little heavy rain. Dreary and showery doesn't produce a lot in total...

And the NAM, well it's the NAM Wink

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jul 03, 2015 1:01 pm

Yeah not a model does us no justice
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Post by algae888 Fri Jul 03, 2015 4:42 pm

As usual the GFS was up to its old tricks.
From nws
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.
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