July 2015 Observations & Discussions
+21
Snow88
mako460
essexcountypete
weatherwatchermom
rb924119
billg315
docstox12
ak926
RJB8525
nutleyblizzard
algae888
Math23x7
CPcantmeasuresnow
Dunnzoo
Dtone
Quietace
jmanley32
aiannone
skinsfan1177
amugs
Frank_Wx
25 posters
Page 2 of 10
Page 2 of 10 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Yeah not a model does us no justice
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
As usual the GFS was up to its old tricks.
From nws
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.
From nws
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Join date : 2013-02-05
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
More from nws
NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W ZONES.
NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W ZONES.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
NAM has rain now. So does euro.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Is it hit and miss or a steady rain
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
A hit, light and showery onshore damp flow...clearing in time for fireworks...bbq later rather than earlier
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
rgem went dry. go figure. almost every model has that has rain has it ending by mid afternoon. around 3pm
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
18z gfs drying out also...
this is from 2-5pm
this is from 2-5pm
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
on another note look at the nao.
and the ao...
and lets not forget the pna..
wow! trifecta. if this was winter. I miss winter.
and the ao...
and lets not forget the pna..
wow! trifecta. if this was winter. I miss winter.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
and OMG!!!
look at the mjo...
frank has it ever been like this in summer?
look at the mjo...
frank has it ever been like this in summer?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Algae, if it was January and the teleconnections looked like that, Frank would put up the Godzilla banner in no time.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
mike I agree. maybe the nao is a good sign for this upcoming winter. hasn't been this neg in a long time.Math23x7 wrote:Algae, if it was January and the teleconnections looked like that, Frank would put up the Godzilla banner in no time.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Happy 4th of July everyone looking at current radar rain to west seems to heading north east it may stay dry just overcast skies I'm hoping
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Steady rain off to our west. May not get to our area until early afternoon
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
For what its worth TWC has taken chance of rain out the forecast completely for immediate NYC area and points east
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Subsidence once again!! Cloudy and 70*. Dry air at the lower levels eating up the moisture but it will saturate and we will rain today as it slides east - the rain that is. Stuck in between the two systems - one over PA and one of the SNJ coast lookee see:
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Heading over to my sister's house at 12:30 for her annual fourth of July/son's birthday bbq. That radar is looking rather ominous right now. Hopefully the subsidence holds!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
totally crap out, been raining steady since 9..even ponding up
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1994
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 38
Location : Hackettstown, NJ
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
67* and light rain - lovely - not the 4th of July weather we have been accustomed to.
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE!!! LET'S CELEBRATE THIS GREAT NATIONS INDEPENDENCE AND THOSE WHO HAVE SERVED TO KEEP OUR INDEPENDENCE!!
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE!!! LET'S CELEBRATE THIS GREAT NATIONS INDEPENDENCE AND THOSE WHO HAVE SERVED TO KEEP OUR INDEPENDENCE!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Hoping the rain continues to stay just west in Jersey but light rain just started here and 74*. Looks like its breaking up over NE NJ though. Hope its just intermittent showers.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
The GFS was definitely not right we had a quick shower here and plenty of sunshine hope everybody is enjoying their 4th of July
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
A few showers earlier around noon, now a spectacular afternoon!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Turned out great, had maybe an hr period of occasional light showers then the sun came out. Biked over the GWB cloudy returned with sunshine. Unfortunately some plans were canceled unnecessarily.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Turned out to be a very nice afternoon after 3PM - sun and clouds.
Today , the day after 79* and bright sunshine, low humidity, great summer day in my book.
Today , the day after 79* and bright sunshine, low humidity, great summer day in my book.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Muggy ! Temp 77 Dew point 74
ak926- Posts : 117
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2015-03-26
Location : Rockaway, NJ
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
Yep, typical summer day, just had a shower pass through, the first of a bunch today I think
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: July 2015 Observations & Discussions
You can cut the air with a knife today. Any rain we get today and tomorrow and Thursday could bring heavy downpours
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Page 2 of 10 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Page 2 of 10
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|