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July 2015 Observations & Discussions

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Snow88
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ak926
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Math23x7
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Dunnzoo
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amugs
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Post by algae888 Fri Jul 03, 2015 4:47 pm

More from nws
NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W ZONES.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jul 03, 2015 7:35 pm

NAM has rain now. So does euro.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:23 pm

Is it hit and miss or a steady rain
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:25 pm

A hit, light and showery onshore damp flow...clearing in time for fireworks...bbq later rather than earlier

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Post by algae888 Fri Jul 03, 2015 9:01 pm

rgem went dry. go figure. almost every model has that has rain has it ending by mid afternoon. around 3pm
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Post by algae888 Fri Jul 03, 2015 9:03 pm

18z gfs drying out also...
July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 2 Gfs_namer_027_10m_wnd_precip
this is from 2-5pm
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Post by algae888 Fri Jul 03, 2015 9:12 pm

on another note look at the nao.
July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 2 Nao.sprd2
and the ao...
July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 2 Ao.sprd2
and lets not forget the pna..
July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 2 Pna.sprd2
wow! trifecta. if this was winter. I miss winter.
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Post by algae888 Fri Jul 03, 2015 9:15 pm

and OMG!!!
look at the mjo...
July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 2 Ensplume_small
frank has it ever been like this in summer?
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jul 03, 2015 9:51 pm

Algae, if it was January and the teleconnections looked like that, Frank would put up the Godzilla banner in no time.

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Post by algae888 Fri Jul 03, 2015 10:07 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Algae, if it was January and the teleconnections looked like that, Frank would put up the Godzilla banner in no time.
mike I agree. maybe the nao is a good sign for this upcoming winter. hasn't been this neg in a long time.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:45 am

Happy 4th of July everyone looking at current radar rain to west seems to heading north east it may stay dry just overcast skies I'm hoping
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:49 am

Steady rain off to our west. May not get to our area until early afternoon

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 2 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by Dtone Sat Jul 04, 2015 9:16 am

For what its worth TWC has taken chance of rain out the forecast completely for immediate NYC area and points east

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Post by amugs Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:05 am

Subsidence once again!! Cloudy and 70*. Dry air at the lower levels eating up the moisture but it will saturate and we will rain today as it slides east - the rain that is. Stuck in between the two systems - one over PA and one of the SNJ coast lookee see:

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 2 Bgm_None_anim

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:21 am

Heading over to my sister's house at 12:30 for her annual fourth of July/son's birthday bbq. That radar is looking rather ominous right now. Hopefully the subsidence holds!
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:49 am

totally crap out, been raining steady since 9..even ponding up
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Post by amugs Sat Jul 04, 2015 12:42 pm

67* and light rain - lovely - not the 4th of July weather we have been accustomed to.

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE!!! LET'S CELEBRATE THIS GREAT NATIONS INDEPENDENCE AND THOSE WHO HAVE SERVED TO KEEP OUR INDEPENDENCE!!

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Post by Dtone Sat Jul 04, 2015 12:48 pm

Hoping the rain continues to stay just west in Jersey but light rain just started here and 74*. Looks like its breaking up over NE NJ though. Hope its just intermittent showers.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:55 pm

The GFS was definitely not right we had a quick shower here and plenty of sunshine hope everybody is enjoying their 4th of July
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jul 04, 2015 4:36 pm

A few showers earlier around noon, now a spectacular afternoon!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Dtone Sat Jul 04, 2015 6:15 pm

Turned out great, had maybe an hr period of occasional light showers then the sun came out. Biked over the GWB cloudy returned with sunshine. Unfortunately some plans were canceled unnecessarily.

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Post by amugs Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:59 am

Turned out to be a very nice afternoon after 3PM - sun and clouds.

Today , the day after 79* and bright sunshine, low humidity, great summer day in my book.

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Post by ak926 Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:35 am

Muggy ! Temp 77 Dew point 74

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:39 am

Yep, typical summer day, just had a shower pass through, the first of a bunch today I think

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by algae888 Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:15 am

You can cut the air with a knife today. Any rain we get today and tomorrow and Thursday could bring heavy downpours
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