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July 2015 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Dtone Tue Jul 07, 2015 1:17 pm

No major heat but the most consistant summer warmth/humidity stretch since May is upon us it seems. 86 with dew points in low to mid 70s.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jul 07, 2015 1:29 pm

Very hard downpour here wowzzaa
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Post by amugs Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:17 pm

87.8* high here today with 77% humidity and a 72* dew point = typical summer day

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dtone Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:08 pm

after a humid 88* a very warm muggy summer night, temps struggle to get much into the 70s in urban areas

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Post by amugs Wed Jul 08, 2015 3:18 pm

Absoluetly pouring here now since about 3 pm measured .25" of rain so far and temp dropped to 74.4 (10 degrees) in about 20 minutes

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 08, 2015 4:44 pm

Daymm the rain we just had and more coming had b at least a inch people had pull over. A high mud cliff is in jeopardy saw rocks falling off it.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 08, 2015 4:45 pm

Not smart do huge construction with loose dirt directly over a main road. Central Ave for those who know it.
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Post by amugs Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:11 pm

Peeps, tomorrow is looking very interesting for some severe t-storms.
RGEM says so looked see from LHV to about union county in NNJ

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Post-90-0-64918200-1436392675

NAM -HIRES

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f33

Oh and I measured .42" in the bucket from today's storms.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:19 am

Well that NAM is only about 8 hrs off lol, the storms are not supposed to arrive until later this afternoon, we have a small batch of non severe rain coming in now maybe thats what it picked up on.  Do you have the images for this afternoon?  What does the RGEM have for its timestamp, the pic is too small?  SPC says 1000-1500 cape and ample shear which would increase rotating storms, the western areas into PA have 5% tornado which rest of us are 2%, and even NYC and southern WC on cusps of that,  all are 15% damaging winds.   We will see most storms so far this year have not been wildly crazy.

Oh my bad that shows 03z tonight so what is that 10pm? That seems a bit late for svr wx.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:08 am

SPC just increased areas west of us to enhanced risk of wind or tornados! Wish frankwas here to hear his ya or nay, he is usually spot on if he is not impressed. Nonetheless the tornado area has been expanded just into CT. They must feel chances of unstable and shear is going to be greater, obviously it will likely be the worst to our west but you never know we get enough sun, right now its cool and raining so it needs to clear up quick.

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Ehance10
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:11 am

64.4* ...............90% humidity...................76* dew point.......................moderate to heavy rain this morning with .20" in the bucket so far

Looks to be a washout today - no golfing for me.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:13 am

Posted Today, 09:04 AM

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>071-092045-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0003.150709T2100Z-150710T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
335 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...FAIRFIELD...MIDDLESEX...NEW HAVEN...AND
NEW LONDON. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...
PUTNAM...AND ROCKLAND.

* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK
EAST TODAY...AND LIKELY PASS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:17 am

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Wind10
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:17 am

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Tornad11
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:22 am

July 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f20

Interesting evening ahead!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:34 am

Wow almost looks like a mcs with bow.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:11 am

PA has been under the gun all summer, the heat just keeps the air unstable. We are close enough to the coast that we get a little cooler air influence to knock down the storms. The interior just tends to bake a lot longer....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:15 am

Zoo the good ol' marine layer that intrudes the coast and. Sometimes inland can knock these bad boys down, lessen the severity. We'll see but I am not feeling tormatic issues around us here and east but more west western jersey and EPA- snowman and RJ country!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:20 am

Yeah will have to keep an eye on them later....should be fun tracking if I have time...

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:21 am

Anyway, nice to great weekend incoming- Sunday looks to be humid though but the again this is a typical summer day Upper 80's and humid right?

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:28 am

Mugs with temperatures still in the sixties and dew points in the low sixties and overcast it's going to be tough to have any severe weather today. Anyway if anything happens it should be after the rush hour
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:39 am

That cold front is still pretty far south keeping the heat and muggys away for now. I think they were expecting some clearing today to help fire up those storms coming from Ohio...but if it stays cloudy, gonna bust big time with all the warnings and watches...

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 09, 2015 2:36 pm

It feels quite stable out past high heating of day I feel bust unless spc know something we dont. Cape and upper level winds are nonexistent here.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 09, 2015 2:38 pm

Tornado watch issued in pa up to nj border. Sun keeps try come out. Funny how flood watch goes right around nj. That's odd. Mugs got latest nam high res?
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Post by algae888 Thu Jul 09, 2015 2:51 pm

front has moved through central and south jersey as temps there are now in the mid 80's. nyc metro temps in the mid 70's still. very unlikely we will see severe weather.
latest nws disco...
IF ANY PORTION OF THE AREA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR...IT WOULD
OCCUR LATE DAY AND BRIEF..
.WITH JUST EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS
LIKELY GETTING WARM SECTORED. AS THE LOW NEARS...THE WARM FRONT
MAY JUMP SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST...WHERE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS OBSERVED.

IF ANY PORTION OF THE CWA WERE TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IT WOULD LIKELY BE WEAKENING STORMS...BOW
STRUCTURES AND LINE SEGMENTS THAT APPROACH NE NJ ZONES FROM THE
WEST LATE
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