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2015 August Obs & Discussions

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Post by amugs Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:48 pm

Water temp not 75* but 68* as I left the beach they changes the temp of the water and u could feel it. Wight,8* lower than yesterday. Not quite George Costanzo hahaha! !https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8DoARSlv-HU

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Post by Dtone Sun Aug 09, 2015 12:44 am

Took the long journey to point pleasant NJ and it was closed to swimming due to rough seas. Ive rarely been to any Jersey shore spots so it was dissapointing, but wow it was an amazing wave show. Some had to be twice my height or more and im 6ft. A few surfers snuck in and got knocked the **** around.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 09, 2015 8:53 am

@Dtone wrote:Took the long journey to point pleasant NJ and it was closed to swimming due to rough seas. Ive rarely been to any Jersey shore spots so it was dissapointing, but wow it was an amazing wave show.  Some  had to be twice my height or more and im 6ft. A few surfers snuck in and got knocked the **** around.

I went to Long Branch yesterday and did notice the waves were high. Quite impressive...I wonder what's causing it.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 09, 2015 8:54 am

Actually it's the coastal system that originally was modeled to bring us heavy rain. Instead went out to sea.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 09, 2015 8:55 am

Half an inch to 1 inch of rain expected Tuesday. May not end until 7pm.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Aug 09, 2015 9:50 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Half an inch to 1 inch of rain expected Tuesday. May not end until 7pm.
We could use the rain. Then again not expecting any drought conditions in the foreseeable future. Not with that sub tropical jet on steroids that will inflict pain on us this fall and winter via rain or snow. white flag
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:51 pm

Euro
2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

18Z GFS
2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f42

CMC
2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f48

If this were winter we'd be throwing out the 18Z GFS - Laughing
and the NAM.....................
2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f36

HIRES NAM

2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne4_f42

Tuesday none the less looks to be a washout Rolling Eyes

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 09, 2015 11:48 pm

Yup - much needed washout


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Post by Math23x7 Sun Aug 09, 2015 11:52 pm

The 0Z RGEM looks pretty wet as well through hour 48 (end of its run) with more rain to the west after 8 PM Tuesday jeopardizing the Mets/Rockies game at Citi Field Tuesday night...

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Post by snow247 Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:19 pm

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING IN SOUTHERN ...CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...
EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...
WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...RICHMOND
(STATEN ISLAND)...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF CAUSING URBAN FLASH
FLOODING IN THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

* RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3
INCHES AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD...URBAN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
COULD EXPERIENCE DISRUPTIVE IMPACTS.

* DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS...SOME FAST-RESPONDING SMALL STREAMS IN
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY COULD APPROACH BANK FULL IF DIRECTLY
IMPACTED. LARGER STREAMS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD NOT
EXPERIENCE FLOODING.
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Post by snow247 Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:26 pm

Although it's likely going to change, the latest HRRR keeps most of the rain well N and W of our area.
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 10, 2015 11:26 pm

NAM HI RES

2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 NAM-HIRES_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f26

HRRR
2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 HRRR-15MIN_Radar_ne_f360
2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 HRRR-15MIN_Radar_ne_f540

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/sv/model/hrrr-15min/02z/ne/121-composite-radar

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 11, 2015 8:44 am

The heaviest rain is moving out to sea. Lingering showers, at times steady rain, will continue through mid afternoon. We will not completely clear out until tonight. We needed this rain. Seems like most received between .50-1.00"

2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 11, 2015 8:45 am

Next threat for rain will come Saturday afternoon. Looks like light showers. Probably low chance.

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Aug 11, 2015 8:47 am

I have .74" in the gauge so far..


Last edited by Dunnzoo on Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:16 am; edited 1 time in total

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by ak926 Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:41 am

.69 here in Rockaway at 7am

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Post by docstox12 Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:06 am

Light rain, 69.8 degrees, 29.67 F, 91%. .76 in the bucket so far.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:49 am

got 1.19 inches here. 96% humidity rain was well needed
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:17 pm

As you can see from the radar above. Another line of showers and t-storms getting ready to roll through NJ over the next 1-2 hours.

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Post by docstox12 Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:47 pm

That line passed over me with a very heavy shower totaling.26. One inch overall in the bucket now, 76 degrees, 88%, 29.66 F.

Sun breaking through clouds now, some blue patches.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:17 pm

Accuweather's forecast graphic for today. Who am I to judge...

2015 August Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Post-692-0-86192000-1439316139

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:55 pm

Seemed like a lot of hype for today, between flash flood watches and possible severe weather threat. Am I missing something or did the media hype this up as usual??? I have not seen any flooding reports yet and wasn't seeing anything that would warrant all the watches...

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
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Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:06 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Seemed like a lot of hype for today, between flash flood watches and possible severe weather threat. Am I missing something or did the media hype this up as usual??? I have not seen any flooding reports yet and wasn't seeing anything that would warrant all the watches...

I have not followed media weather since the winter. What were they saying? This has always looked like a .50-1.00" threat to me. Maybe the flood watches were up because its been dry, but I still did not think they were warranted.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:10 pm

It was mostly a urban flood thing and this morning there was treacherous driving into the Bronx with pooling of water, almost hydroplaned.
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Post by aiannone Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:27 pm

1.15" of rain in the bucket for this storm. Cloudy now with showers up to the NW, maybe a few will hold together but it will likely dissipate. Nothing impressive, but much needed rain.
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