NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Page 1 of 8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:17 pm

A little late with this - sorry - but here is the blog looking a little bit at Erika. Additional information will come out this weekend if she still looks like a threat.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/08/watching-tropical-storm-erika.html

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:39 pm

Good blog not sure what it exactly means for us if anything but from what u said even u can't make a call now. Pressure went up again at 8pm update. I think she may b fast enough to miss that part that would kill her off. I myself will b watching regardless of what happens. She also has possibility to b a monster near Bahamas where it then goes who knows. Thanks for insight.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Noreaster Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:42 pm

There's so many options on the table right now that it's best to take a wait and see approach for the next 48 hours.
Noreaster
Noreaster

Posts : 463
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2013-01-08
Age : 38
Location : Merrick, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:48 pm

Umm 18z gfs is on drugs check it out weird
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:49 pm

@Noreaster wrote:There's so many options on the table right now that it's best to take a wait and see approach for the next 48 hours.
agreed no point to model hug as nothing g is in sync anyways
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:03 pm

@Noreaster wrote:There's so many options on the table right now that it's best to take a wait and see approach for the next 48 hours.

How nice of you to join us here

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by aiannone Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:04 pm

New 5pm track
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 20532510
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by snow247 Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:56 pm

5PM update

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 5pm_up10

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 5pm_up13


Last edited by snow247 on Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:00 pm

This one is def showing the change in track, toward EC and not FL.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 18z_8_10

discussion on nhc 5pm talks about Erika possibly degrading but almost positive she will regain and strengthen in caribbean area and as it turns.

jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:02 pm

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Tcheat_atl_epac_diff_2015

TCHP, or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, is impressive around the Bahamas. Erika has a really good chance of developing into a Hurricane. Possibly category 2 by early next week.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:03 pm

snow that wu purple sketti model is old, i saw the new one but for some reason it reverted back to 11am, it showed the white on east side of FL and many more sketi up coast but none into our area, some headed that direction but stop around obx, guess too far out.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Tcheat_atl_epac_diff_2015

TCHP, or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, is impressive around the Bahamas. Erika has a really good chance of developing into a Hurricane. Possibly category 2 by early next week.

yep the sure are, even up the coast to obx and then offshore of the area they are warmer than normal, will be interesting to watch this unfold whatever she does.  I am thinking anywhere from cat 1-3 right now, intensity models even go as extreme as cat 4 but i do not think that will happen but you never know hurricanes are sneaky things.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:09 pm

hwrf dang, Frank did you say this has actually been okay this year? sorry if i posted this over on other thread not sure if I did or not. pretty colors lol

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 12z_hw10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:22 pm

No, I said the GFDL. And mainly in track not much with intensity.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:32 pm

18z GFS did 180 (from showing nearly nothing to this agreeing with CMC and Euro at least on track and being some type of hurricane at 162 hrs.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 18z_gf10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:52 pm

Then id oddly meanders around the area for quite some time going a bit SE, how odd.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 210_hr10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by snow247 Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:snow that wu purple sketti model is old, i saw the new one but for some reason it reverted back to 11am, it showed the white on east side of FL and many more sketi up coast but none into our area, some headed that direction but stop around obx, guess too far out.

Yea thanks jman, didn't notice it said 11AM.

This storm makes me want to renew my wxbell subscription early.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:17 pm

LOL I did!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by snow247 Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:24 pm

Looks like the 00z tropical models went more east..

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 0z10
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Quietace Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:36 pm

You can still see the shear on Erika, but the continuous convection bursts are aiding her survival...
http://bit.ly/1K5opy4

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Quietace Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:40 pm

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Stuncf10

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:59 pm

Those dip in heights leading to a positive looking trough in the Southeast will be the reason for Erika to recurve out to sea. She could meander for awhile since we'll also have a -NAO. If somehow the ridge builds more south and east and the trough gets absorbed, Erika could come up the coast. Confidence is in the former scenario rather than the latter at the moment.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Gfs_z500_sig_noram_18

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:01 pm

Right now I'll place 50% odds of coastal Carolina's getting hit, 30% Florida and southeast states, 20% our area.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by snow247 Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:10 pm

11PM advisory

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika 11pm_a10
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:09 am

Latest GFS brings this storm inland into the Carolinas.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika Empty Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum