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*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

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Joe Snow
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:22 pm

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks like it may be starting a very slight jog WNW.


Last edited by snow247 on Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:31 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:24 pm

We do not have to have a direct landfall to have a bad storm remember.
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Post by Joe Snow Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:15 pm

Current Radar water vapor:

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Erika_14
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:37 pm

@snow247 wrote:http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks like it may be starting a very slight jog WNW.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Map110
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Post by amugs Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:07 pm

Check out the track plots, scratch your head??
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 05L_tracks_latest

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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:51 pm

00z GFS rolling and the storm looks further south than the last run through hour 48.
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:58 pm

GFS says "who's Erika?"
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:21 am

Current Radar Water Vapor

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Erika_17

Current Radar Infra Red

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Erika_18
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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:34 am

new spaghetti plots as of 6z Friday
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 05L_tracks_latest
westward shift continues. look how it cuts right through Hispaniola.
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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:38 am

look at erika south of PR. 36hrs ago almost every model had her north of PR. models did a poor job in the short term with her.
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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:40 am

gefs has 0% chance of Erika hitting nyc metro.
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 05L_gefs_latest
I am also hearing euro lost her too.
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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:55 am

Erika is now forecast to remain a t/s.
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 084617W5_NL_sm
some of nhc 5am update...Strong shear is expected to continue or even increase during the
next day or so. The combination of the shear and interaction with
Hispaniola suggests that Erika is likely to weaken and could even
dissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Assuming that the cyclone
survives, there is an opportunity for some intensification on days
2 and 3 of the forecast period as the shear decreases, and that is
reflected in the NHC forecast. After that time, since the NHC track
now takes Erika inland over the Florida peninsula, weakening is
shown at days 4 and 5. Much of the guidance has trended weaker this
cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the
IVCN consensus. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains very
low.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti today. These rains could
produce flash floods and mud slides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 17.7N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 25.6N 80.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 30.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:57 am

Well unless things drastically change I guess this is no longer a threat def to us and not really anything FL has not seen before.  Wow what a bunch of mixed up models and track differences.  So do the other pros here agree that Erika is done and has no chance of getting up here as anything, even more holding together to become a hurricane at all anywhere?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:15 am

I'm not totally discounting her yet. Just because she won't make direct landfall here doesn't meant she still can't bring us rain. New percentages:

Old: "Right now I'll place 50% odds of coastal Carolina's getting hit, 30% Florida and southeast states, 20% our area."

New: Florida 60%, Carolina's 30%, NJ 10%


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Post by docstox12 Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:19 am

Good! There was prior discussion a day or so ago of this becoming another Sandy.The folks down the shore don't need that.Hope Sandy will be a once in a hundred year event.

The only spaghetti track I want to see is one out of the Gulf picking up that warm water and curving up the coast in Dec., Jan. or Feb. giving us another Boxing Day.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:16 am

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 <a href=*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Map11011" />
This map tells us a lot.  This unexpected shift south yesterday is the main reason why we saw the track shift west. If it actually followed the track we though it was going to yesterday, black arrow there would have been much less interactions with PR and more importantly Hispanola today.  This ultimately means a much weaker wave which is way more influenced by the steering layers.  As you can see by this next image which shows the mean steering layer, the more southerly track leads to a later turn north and a route over more land lending to a much weaker system as it approaches Fla and nowhere for it to intensify, vs the just north of the islands track which would have had the center less influenced by the mountains of the islands and a turn N sooner off the SE Fla coast where the bath water is for intensification.  It aint over till the fat lady sings but the Cat 5 on the GFDL yesterday off the outer banks is highly unlikely at this stage.
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 <a href=*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Steeri10" />

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:41 am

Sroc gfdl still shows a cat 4 off SC fwiw...not much
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:05 am

The GFDL has been the only one to hold its track to carolinas, weaker this run but what are peoples thoughts on this? Frank I know you said 30% but you had also said GFDL has been good and it certainly has been darn consistent on as NW track missing FL. But as of now not sure how I see that happening.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Gfdl11
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:05 am

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Gfdl_m10
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:29 am

All I can say is so far we have seen the change up when we were expecting the fast ball.  Nothing is set in stone.  Again like a winter storm the Md and LR are never set in stone.  We have to see what happens to her over the next 24hrs after she interacts with the mountains of Hispanola/Honduras.  Trends are weaker and west but since it hasnt happened yet we cont to track.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:37 am

@jmanley32 wrote:*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Gfdl_m10

JMan this is a quote from someone on another board..."the GFDL has been the most consistent model..... its either smoking something good or its onto something"

We track

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:41 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 6 Gfdl_m10

JMan this is a quote from someone on another board..."the GFDL has been the most consistent model..... its either smoking something good or its onto something"

We track

I hope its onto something!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:48 am

LOL, I think this time it may be onto something with its staying course and my bad that's NC, duhhhh. Yes 24 hrs will be very telling.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:51 am

11am has Erika headed to re-emerge into the SW atlantic after riding FL (of course this could still change), wonder what will happen then.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:03 am

Hopefully it stays away from our area imo
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