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*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:16 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Hopefully it stays away from our area imo

I doubt much we get a direct landfall but a weakening storm or remnants cannot be ruled out yet I think. She is still south of the area, to that I give a tropical system the room to do what its going to do until its out of the picture, until then ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:39 pm

12z GFS again with nada, not even a TS for FL, doesn't even look to initialize as a closed LP, odd.
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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:12z GFS again with nada, not even a TS for FL, doesn't even look to initialize as a closed LP, odd.
Cmc does bring her off the southeast coast and develops into a hurricane and hits North Carolina only up to 84 hours. However it is the CMC and for some reason she strengthens her over land
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Post by oldtimer Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:20 pm

It all going to wind up to be another Danny Too much to overcome

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:34 pm

Mu lord CMC makes 4 landfalls here circling the area, hilarious.  If that were to happen it would be the worst thing to ever happen. Dropping 24 inches of rain in sE tip of NJ 5-10 rest of state less in to Westchester.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:38 pm

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:38 pm

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:39 pm

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:39 pm

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:40 pm

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:41 pm

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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:46 pm

Cmc really! Can we ever take this model serious when it comes to tropical systems.
First it strengthens the hurricane while it is over land in Florida secondly it does two loop de loops in our area. How can anyone believe this
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:49 pm

I never said I did, its crazy though just to see that.
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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I never said I did, its crazy though just to see that.
I know jman. Never said you did. I was just amazed to see that run. I was trying to talk myself out of believing it.lol
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Post by snow247 Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:59 pm

12z GGEM: Weak wave goes into Florida, exits the SC coast and blows up over our area.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 7 12zgge10
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Post by snow247 Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:00 pm

Canadian

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 7 12zc110
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:14 pm

Ya, umm its a model run so I guess anything is possible, kinda in line with route GFDL takes but 2 feet of rain in NJ, that would be something, and devastation winds. That would be one to discuss with my grandkids, a rotating storm to loop the area at least twice.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:15 pm

Euro running showing nada, these models are not even worth watching other than for entertainment.
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Post by snow247 Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:19 pm

Let's just not look at any models until at least Tuesday lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:21 pm

LOL yes u will snow : ) As we all probably will.
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Post by amugs Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:48 pm

These models are terrible with these tropical system the way they waffle - to many atmospheric dynamics. NHC showing the WNW trend in its latest
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 7 173843W5_NL_sm

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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:55 pm

Hearing the 12z gfdl has caved also
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:00 pm

It did crosses FL and into SC, as a weak TS at best. Still I do not think this storm will be well modeled till it passes hispanola
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Post by Guest Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:25 pm

This thing is going to wind up in the gulf and going to pound Alabama and Mississippi with rain. Mad Mad

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:57 pm

syosnow94 wrote:This thing is going to wind up in the gulf and going to pound Alabama and Mississippi with rain. Mad Mad

LOL, who knows, she been all over the place. Something I noted that some convection is actually firing over Dominican republic which is near center. Interesting. I still do not discount a more eastern run once gets further north.
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