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*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

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Post by algae888 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:07 pm

WOW!!! Gfs is insane. Erika sits off the coast the whole run and at hr 360 she is a 975mb hurricane 200 miles east of nj coast
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:12 pm

@algae888 wrote:WOW!!! Gfs is insane. Erika sits off the coast the whole run and at hr 360 she is a 975mb hurricane 200 miles east of nj coast

Ahhhh...

1) Hi guys & gals! :-)

2) Ummm, CMC is really something. Has a west recurve after riding up E coast and slams the local area.
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:13 pm

@algae888 wrote:WOW!!! Gfs is insane. Erika sits off the coast the whole run and at hr 360 she is a 975mb hurricane 200 miles east of nj coast

Looks like the 12z GFS and Canadian both agree on bringing this up to our area at some point.

Will be interesting to see what the Euro shows.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:13 pm

I really hope it doesn't come up this way at all the area is still rebuilding and we don't need it
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:27 pm

The GFS and CMC are crushing for the area if that happened, winds would be far more severe than Sandy. Wow this is going to be very interesting over the next what looks to be few weeks if GFS is right, shorter if CMC is right and I am glowing to see the Euro (not meaning wanting the storm but if its in agreement). Could be possibly scary situation here, glad your all on board with me in watching this, your insight helps a lot as I know the tropics but the upper level stuff is still something I am trying to understand.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:30 pm

One to keep in mind is that the CMC tends to be an outlier for tropical systems in terms of development and track. Flashback to July 2013 when on the 7th, the CMC developed Tropical Storm Chantal into a hurricane off the southeast coast while the GFS and EURO had practically nothing. Sure enough, days later, Chantal dissipated near Hispaniola. Let's see what the 12Z EURO has in store for us.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:34 pm

The GFS and cmc right Now are in agreement correct
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:40 pm

Canadian model is kind of freakish. Reminds me of Sandy with that turn to the west.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 RCqNMuU

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 Cmc_pr6_slp_t850_neng_33

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Post by algae888 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:45 pm

The cmc if it verified would chrush nyc metro and li as we would be on the eastern side of a strengthening sub 990mb hurricane. What would likely be a cat 3. WOW!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:48 pm

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 Cmc_mslp_uv10m_nyc_33

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:49 pm

@algae888 wrote:The cmc if it verified would chrush nyc metro and li as we would be on the eastern side of a strengthening sub 990mb hurricane. What would likely be a cat 3. WOW!!

Yes it can be a outlier but GFS even more extreme with 972mb, just further east, yes Frank saw flashback to Sandy with CMC, maybe not once in 100 yrs....Anyways Euro will be interesting but GFS is way off on timing from CMC.  I remember plenty of false moves by CMC in past yrs.  Still coming into a possibly terrible situation, I like wind as you all know but not ones that will destroy the area.  My car is going in a iron box if this comes to fruition.

Al I will help you cleanup if this ever happens. I used to be a landscaper and tree feller.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 Cmc_mslp_uv10m_nyc_33

Those winds gotta be way underplayed, besides Frank u always tell me they are not accurate. 991mb is not going to do 18-35mph winds.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:53 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Canadian model is kind of freakish. Reminds me of Sandy with that turn to the west.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 RCqNMuU

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 Cmc_pr6_slp_t850_neng_33

Unbelievable, right? When have we ever seen that kind of recurvature even just depicted on models within a couple years of each other (if ever?...)
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:54 pm

Here we go euro started on wxbell. I will post if needed.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:55 pm

Just rememember guys still major changes from run to run and model to model in the upper levels still occuring. No consistency whatso ever. Still have to focus on the upper levels to see how it plays out.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:55 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Canadian model is kind of freakish. Reminds me of Sandy with that turn to the west.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 RCqNMuU

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 Cmc_pr6_slp_t850_neng_33

Unbelievable, right? When have we ever seen that kind of recurvature even just depicted on models within a couple years of each other (if ever?...)

Is it a similar setup to Sandy, that is incredibly rare per what they said with Sandy?  I would say a intensity between GFS and CMC right now, 990 def not a cat 3 but the GFS likely was. And I am not talking about track intensity wherever it goes.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:03 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Just rememember guys still major changes from run to run and model to model in the upper levels still occuring.  No consistency whatso ever.  Still have to focus on the upper levels to see how it plays out.  

I know, those runs themselves were just very unsettling, but obviously they could go poof next runs.
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Post by algae888 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:10 pm

The 2 p.m. update on Erika has her maximum sustained winds of 45 miles an hour so it weakened some. Also to note it now looks like it may pass south of Puerto Rico and a direct hit on Hispaniola. I think we need that to happen to hopefully weaken the storm enough so that it would cross over Florida and into the Gulf and spare the East Coast
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:13 pm

Al that does not always happen, it could also shoot the gap in between which has been known to happen. so much on the table here I dunno what to think. Euro is off EC FL at 72 hrs. I do not see this going into gulf myself. And Gulf has a lot ofshear but super hot waters. SO does SE coast though.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:14 pm

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 Euro_110

Makes landfall as a wave in FL, wonder if it goes back into atlantic. Different run than gfs and cmc for sure so far.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:25 pm

Euro up to 120 hrs is a wave at best over northern FL but looks to be headed back into atlantic
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:30 pm

For me less tha 5% its in the GOM

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:34 pm

Al I think Erika is going to skirt just north of hispalola, therefore not being torn there, is why TS watches only up for northern side.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:35 pm

GFDL model latest run: Yes the Max sustained wind is 141.8 knots on that run.  In case you were wondering thats 161.2MPH  
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 Gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 3 Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSBRF6jdauQl5RPMyFpgJTgzl93xXclSERtvkF-X0rLhnd0olyzGA


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:35 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:35 pm

@sroc4 wrote:For me less tha 5% its in the GOM

For me its 0%, I think anywhere from tip of FL to cape cod is at risk here, at this time that's all we can say.
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