*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
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Joe Snow
nutleyblizzard
Math23x7
skinsfan1177
SoulSingMG
amugs
algae888
sroc4
Quietace
snow247
aiannone
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jmanley32
Frank_Wx
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
GFDL model latest run: Yes the Max sustained wind is 141.8 knots on that run. In case you were wondering thats 161.2MPH
Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
sroc4- Admin
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
sroc4 wrote:For me less tha 5% its in the GOM
For me its 0%, I think anywhere from tip of FL to cape cod is at risk here, at this time that's all we can say.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
sroc4 wrote:GFDL model latest run: Yes the Max sustained wind is 141.8 knots on that run. In case you were wondering thats 161.2MPH
Holy god, salt taken, damnit my BP went up thanks a lot sroc lol. Anyways frank did mention this model doing ok this year. That's scary and which way did it look headed from there. Wow that's cat 5, I don't believe that intensity. If it was I'd be a cat 3 at least by time got here, not enough time weaken much less than that. Sheesh this is all crazy, watch it end uop being nothing lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Agree scott but hopefully she's weak enough that she'll move over land in kind of fade outsroc4 wrote:For me less tha 5% its in the GOM
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
GFDL almost identical placement to CMC at that time stamp. And apparently the GFS, that's consistency right there.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Scott Pecoriello just posted on AWE that the models have apparently initialized incorrectly. The actual location of Erika seems to be southwest of where the models had it at this time. Frank and Scott I'm at work right now. Do you have any insight on this?
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Mike all i know is that its much further south than where it was modeled to be today.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Im not sure about that Mike but by looking at the RBG Sat loop it looks like there might be more than one LLC of circulation or it might be trying to reform in a new location.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
The next update will most likely have some sort of NW motion noted.sroc4 wrote:Im not sure about that Mike but by looking at the RBG Sat loop it looks like there might be more than one LLC of circulation or it might be trying to reform in a new location.
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Math23x7 wrote:Scott Pecoriello just posted on AWE that the models have apparently initialized incorrectly. The actual location of Erika seems to be southwest of where the models had it at this time. Frank and Scott I'm at work right now. Do you have any insight on this?
I posted a page or 2 back NHC's discussion. They said the same thing about last night's model runs.
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
sroc4 wrote:Im not sure about that Mike but by looking at the RBG Sat loop it looks like there might be more than one LLC of circulation or it might be trying to reform in a new location.
I would go with the latter. New convection firing up sometimes indicates the LLC re-developing elsewhere
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
She is actually looking better, I understand the LLC is displaced but there is now outflow and decent convection still firing unlike yesterday when she looked terrible.
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Frank_Wx wrote:sroc4 wrote:Im not sure about that Mike but by looking at the RBG Sat loop it looks like there might be more than one LLC of circulation or it might be trying to reform in a new location.
I would go with the latter. New convection firing up sometimes indicates the LLC re-developing elsewhere
So where do you think, the blowup in the northern islands? That would put it at greater chance of missing the killer island lol
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
18z spaghetti plots
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Frank_Wx wrote:18z spaghetti plots
Yeah saw that already pretty good consensus on east of FL, just how far west, very few actually hit FL directly, mostly north, not good, but these tend to be fairly inaccurate this far out if I am not mistaken except maybe 48-72 hrs out.
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Check this out, use the -3 +3 to move. shear is dying down, hence why I think Erika is firing up more. No how come that sear all along the EC wont destroy her?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
jmanley32 wrote:Check this out, use the -3 +3 to move. shear is dying down, hence why I think Erika is firing up more. No how come that sear all along the EC wont destroy her?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Jman that shear is because of the trough currently in the east. That is forecast to lift out and the shear should drop off significantly.
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Erika has finally started to take to a northerly motion, per latest NHC update. #WNW
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
This is the first time I am seeing deep convection developing around the center of Erika during the daylight hours. With a northward movement taking place as we speak, we could finally see Erica gradually begin to strengthen over the next coming days. It will be interesting to see how the models play with the upper air pieces over the next couple of days. Ultimately, that will dictate the track of Erica
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Well 18z nam takes erika directly over Hispaniola and turns her into a tropical wave then reforms her as she heads into the Gulf we shall see
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Nhc forecast has definitely shifted West wouldn't be surprised if it went towards the left of that coneaiannone wrote:5pm Advisory
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
So it's looking more like Florida for a direct hit
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
umm ya if that cat 5 is there ima book to the hills.Frank_Wx wrote:
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Re: *BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika
Frank_Wx wrote:
YEAH I KNOW HOW DEVASTATING this would be verbatim, but man would I be stoked to experience this out here on LI.
I say IF she comes this way we have an impromptu last minute get together to track!!!
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