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*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

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Joe Snow
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:38 pm

@sroc4 wrote:GFDL model latest run: Yes the Max sustained wind is 141.8 knots on that run.  In case you were wondering thats 161.2MPH  
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSBRF6jdauQl5RPMyFpgJTgzl93xXclSERtvkF-X0rLhnd0olyzGA

Holy god, salt taken, damnit my BP went up thanks a lot sroc lol. Anyways frank did mention this model doing ok this year. That's scary and which way did it look headed from there. Wow that's cat 5, I don't believe that intensity. If it was I'd be a cat 3 at least by time got here, not enough time weaken much less than that. Sheesh this is all crazy, watch it end uop being nothing lol
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Post by algae888 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:38 pm

@sroc4 wrote:For me less tha 5% its in the GOM
Agree scott but hopefully she's weak enough that she'll move over land in kind of fade out
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:43 pm

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Uh10

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Uhpt210
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:45 pm

GFDL almost identical placement to CMC at that time stamp. And apparently the GFS, that's consistency right there.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:46 pm

Scott Pecoriello just posted on AWE that the models have apparently initialized incorrectly. The actual location of Erika seems to be southwest of where the models had it at this time. Frank and Scott I'm at work right now. Do you have any insight on this?

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Post by algae888 Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:52 pm

Mike all i know is that its much further south than where it was modeled to be today.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:13 pm

Im not sure about that Mike but by looking at the RBG Sat loop it looks like there might be more than one LLC of circulation or it might be trying to reform in a new location.  
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Rgb_lalo-animated

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Quietace Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Im not sure about that Mike but by looking at the RBG Sat loop it looks like there might be more than one LLC of circulation or it might be trying to reform in a new location.  
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Rgb_lalo-animated
The next update will most likely have some sort of NW motion noted.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:19 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Scott Pecoriello just posted on AWE that the models have apparently initialized incorrectly. The actual location of Erika seems to be southwest of where the models had it at this time. Frank and Scott I'm at work right now.  Do you have any insight on this?

I posted a page or 2 back NHC's discussion. They said the same thing about last night's model runs.


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:20 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Im not sure about that Mike but by looking at the RBG Sat loop it looks like there might be more than one LLC of circulation or it might be trying to reform in a new location.  
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Rgb_lalo-animated

I would go with the latter. New convection firing up sometimes indicates the LLC re-developing elsewhere

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:22 pm

She is actually looking better, I understand the LLC is displaced but there is now outflow and decent convection still firing unlike yesterday when she looked terrible.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:23 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Im not sure about that Mike but by looking at the RBG Sat loop it looks like there might be more than one LLC of circulation or it might be trying to reform in a new location.  
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Rgb_lalo-animated

I would go with the latter. New convection firing up sometimes indicates the LLC re-developing elsewhere

So where do you think, the blowup in the northern islands? That would put it at greater chance of missing the killer island lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:24 pm

18z spaghetti plots

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 CNb74rOU8AEHNcO

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z spaghetti plots

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 CNb74rOU8AEHNcO

Yeah saw that already pretty good consensus on east of FL, just how far west, very few actually hit FL directly, mostly north, not good, but these tend to be fairly inaccurate this far out if I am not mistaken except maybe 48-72 hrs out.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:51 pm

Check this out, use the -3 +3 to move. shear is dying down, hence why I think Erika is firing up more. No how come that sear all along the EC wont destroy her?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Check this out, use the -3 +3 to move. shear is dying down, hence why I think Erika is firing up more. No how come that sear all along the EC wont destroy her?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Jman that shear is because of the trough currently in the east. That is forecast to lift out and the shear should drop off significantly.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:45 pm

Erika has finally started to take to a northerly motion, per latest NHC update. #WNW
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:56 pm

This is the first time I am seeing deep convection developing around the center of Erika during the daylight hours. With a northward movement taking place as we speak, we could finally see Erica gradually begin to strengthen over the next coming days. It will be interesting to see how the models play with the upper air pieces over the next couple of days. Ultimately, that will dictate the track of Erica

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:57 pm

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22

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Post by algae888 Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:00 pm

Well 18z nam takes erika directly over Hispaniola and turns her into a tropical wave then reforms her as she heads into the Gulf we shall see
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Post by aiannone Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:01 pm

5pm Advisory
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 11954611
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Post by algae888 Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:04 pm

@aiannone wrote:5pm Advisory
*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 11954611
Nhc forecast has definitely shifted West wouldn't be surprised if it went towards the left of that cone
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:25 pm

So it's looking more like Florida for a direct hit
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:32 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22 Question
umm ya if that cat 5 is there ima book to the hills.
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Post by Guest Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:42 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 4 Gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22

YEAH I KNOW HOW DEVASTATING this would be verbatim, but man would I be stoked to experience this out here on LI. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

I say IF she comes this way we have an impromptu last minute get together to track!!! Very Happy Very Happy

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