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Post by Quietace Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:55 am

Another summer down the drain as we start turning our attention to fall and winter. But one things for sure. It won't feel like it!

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:02 am

Looking forward to the front moving through on Thursday night to give us a break...

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Post by algae888 Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:06 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Looking forward to the front moving through on Thursday night to give us a break...
Me too! Tired of summer. Friday temperatures have a shot to stay in the seventies then it's right back to the heat next week
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:42 pm

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/638752517178961920

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Post by HectorO Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:01 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Looking forward to the front moving through on Thursday night to give us a break...
Me too! Tired of summer. Friday temperatures have a shot to stay in the seventies then it's right back to the heat next week

Humidity looks a little better next week though. That's if you're on the Jersey side. The city is always a little higher.
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/638752517178961920

Frank,

GFS showing a flip somewhat around Sept 15th and then another shot much cooler about a week later to get us ready for fall.

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Post by snow247 Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:58 pm

September Observations/ Discussion  20150810
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:27 pm

Snow what is that?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:28 pm

I hope the weather takes a turn soon..orientation at school was horribly hot..have you ever seen a gathering when someone faints..that was almost me...and we were in the school only an hour....even my son who is never hot was sweating bullets... No
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:29 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/638752517178961920

Frank,

GFS showing a flip somewhat around Sept 15th and then another shot much cooler about a week later to get us ready for fall.

from your lips to mother nature's ears!!!
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:32 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Snow what is that?

Where my dog has peed since she was a puppy!! Hahaha.
I think the drought indicator for the NE.

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Post by amugs Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:34 pm

The Atlantic a ridge Hadley Cell, Bermuda High , all of the above is pumping and school was fricking brutal today. Looks like the east coast is on the western ridge of this bad boy and a weak cold front slides through Thursday night and bring some relief and the we go back to the cooker for next week with a front looking to slide in here on the 10th.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:18 am

Good Morning! 1st day of school in Hazlet....its already 71* with 85% humidity....and poor air quality alert...hope everyone stays as cool as possible!!
study study
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Post by docstox12 Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:35 am

@amugs wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Snow what is that?

Where  my dog has peed since she was a puppy!! Hahaha.
I think the drought indicator for the NE.

Friggin' hilarious, Mugsy, thanks for a good laugh!!!

And that map is right, very dry and we need a good soaking erain.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:58 am

It looks like we will return to more "normal" like temps by early next week. In terms of rain...not so much luck in that regard. Could be a moderate event mid week next week. We'll see. Also, sorry for the lack of posts lately. Have been extremely busy at work and am just wiped out when I get home. I will be traveling a lot come October so this is going to delay the next get together and release of the Winter Outlook. my goal is to have the outlook ready by the 1st weekend of November.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:12 pm

Just because Im bored.  Since Erika is no longer a tropical system I will place this here rather than the Tropical thread since it is a Sept observation.

As you can see Erika's remnants are exiting the northern Georgia coast.  She still has a nice low level circulation(LLC) that you can see quite clearly on the RGB Sat loop.  

September Observations/ Discussion  Rgb-animated

September Observations/ Discussion  <a href=September Observations/ Discussion  Image_10" />



You may notice that to the east of that LLC is decent convection.
 
September Observations/ Discussion  Wv_lalo-animated


That is because there is decent divergence aloft to the east of the LLC; however; the divergence is only on the eastern flank.  In addition there is 30 Kt windshear right over top.  There is no chance that this redevelops back into a tropical system at this time, but if it sits off the coast and the wind shear drops some(I havent looked at this yet) you might see the NHC give this a small percent at redevelopment.  

September Observations/ Discussion  Wg8dvg
September Observations/ Discussion  Wg8shr

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:13 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Just because Im bored.  Since Erika is no longer a tropical system I will place this here rather than the Tropical thread since it is a Sept observation.

As you can see Erika's remnants are exiting the northern Georgia coast.  She still has a nice low level circulation(LLC) that you can see quite clearly on the RGB Sat loop.  

September Observations/ Discussion  Rgb-animated

September Observations/ Discussion  <a href=September Observations/ Discussion  Image_10" />



You may notice that to the east of that LLC is decent convection.
 
September Observations/ Discussion  Wv_lalo-animated


That is because there is decent divergence aloft to the east of the LLC; however; the divergence is only on the eastern flank.  In addition there is 20-30 Kt windshear right over top.  There is no chance that this redevelops back into a tropical system at this time, but if it sits off the coast and the wind shear drops some(I havent looked at this yet) you might see the NHC give this a small percent at redevelopment.  

September Observations/ Discussion  Wg8dvg
September Observations/ Discussion  Wg8shr

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:13 am

Well, look what I see here. Could we possibly be looking at some substantial rain next week? Two disturbances - one in the upper Midwest and another in the southwest - could phase over the Mid-Atlantic late next week to form a low pressure system that could come up the coast. This would result in 1-2 inches of rain.

September Observations/ Discussion  Weather1

Here is the EURO model showing the slug of moisture over our area on Friday.

September Observations/ Discussion  Weather2

Will continue watching. A slight break in the heat on Saturday and Sunday this weekend, down into the 80's, but the 90's return Labor Day into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Unsettled conditions will arrive by Thursday through next weekend. Temps will get down into the 80's and 70's with low's in the 60's (50's the further west and north you are).

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Post by Math23x7 Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:11 am

Ugh... I was Afraid you'd say that Frank. I'm going to my cousin's wedding on Saturday September 12th and it is near Islip.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:19 am

That stinks...I have 2 Yankee games. Friday and Saturday. Of all the days it has not rained of course next week is when it looks like it will. Talk about bad luck for the both of us, Mike.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:09 pm

Hoping it all goes OTS for you and Mike,Frank.Exciting for the Yankee Fans ,in the thick of a pennant race!!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:32 pm

What a pleasant day today turned out to be...thank goodness!! I did notice that our geese left today..a few weeks earlier than normal..hope everyone enjoys this upcoming weekend!!
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Post by snow247 Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:53 pm

Starting to see quite a bit of color up here now, I guess the drought is causing such an early change.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:11 am

Felt great this morning with Temps in the 70s. Too bad it didn't get a little cooler. We'll rebound into the 80s today and tomorrow but it won't be humid. Heat returns Labor Day through mid week ad Temps go into the 90s. I'll continue watching the threat of rain late next week. Models jumping around.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:02 pm

Nice 76 degrees, 47% humidity.Very comfortable day.Noticed that as well,Frank, the heat building up again.Hopefully,It's the last blast of heat and we get to cooler temps.Gotta happen soon, days noticably shorter now.
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