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September Observations/ Discussion

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Post by docstox12 Sat Sep 12, 2015 9:54 pm

.83 total so far.Torrential shower a while ago.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:59 am

62 degrees, 94%, 29.56 F. Final total 1.01 inch.Added to 1.58 inch a few days ago brings week total to 2.59 inch, a very welcome rainfall.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:01 am

67* 88% humidity...no real rain to speak of this go around
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:26 am

Unfortunately for me, I've been to the last 3 Yankee games. Haven't had time to report. In general, looks like everyone got decent rain since Thursday. Subsidence yesterday caused a dry slot to form over NYC area that'd why they did not get as much as anticipated.

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Post by snow247 Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:50 pm

Already 61* here at 8:30. Cool night.
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Post by snow247 Sun Sep 13, 2015 9:47 pm

58 now
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Post by docstox12 Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:33 am

49 degrees, 93%,29.81 R, partly cloudy.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:51 am

53° for the low this morning 85% humidity didn't feel humid .
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Post by Dtone Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:27 am

60*
got down to 59*, first time in the 50s since June..but last time for a while

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Post by snow247 Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:45 am

Made it down to 52 overnight, lowest since spring I think.
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Post by amugs Mon Sep 14, 2015 10:05 am

54* here last night would hooo felt awesome to seep with the windows open

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Post by Guest Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:15 am

All windows open. Attic fan on full blast sucking in that gorgeous canadian air. 69 degrees in the house after a low of 55 here this morning.

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Post by Quietace Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:42 am

Cool day up here, 61.5*F. Only 54.5*F last night as heavy cloud cover locked in the Valley.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:35 pm

I probably posted in the wrong thread - check long range thread - but we may not see below normal temps for awhile (besides maybe Sunday).

Trough in the west = ridge over east

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Post by snow247 Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:11 pm

Well, for whatever it's worth, farmers almanac says we get "unseasonably chilly" by October 4th.
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Post by ak926 Tue Sep 15, 2015 10:06 am

Wondering who does the forecasting for the Farmer's Almanac ?

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Post by mako460 Tue Sep 15, 2015 2:47 pm

The Farmers

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:55 pm

Is it just me or does it look like the remnants of grace which are off western FL try to head into atlantic and form a LP and goes up EC, and later in the runs another coastal looking system?  Are these tropical entities or just possible weak rainstorms?  I know its boring but maybe it gets interesting into late Sept/Oct.  Usually is a interesting time.
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:26 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Is it just me or does it look like the remnants of grace which are off western FL try to head into atlantic and form a LP and goes up EC, and later in the runs another coastal looking system?  Are these tropical entities or just possible weak rainstorms?  I know its boring but maybe it gets interesting into late Sept/Oct.  Usually is a interesting time.

I could use a few good noreasters. For one thing it gets the fall fishing going here on the Long Island beaches, and the second thing is it gives me the right conditions to do some mushroom foraging in upstate NY. (porcini)

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Post by amugs Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:34 pm

Yes it looks interesting have a log jam of Low Pressure systems in the northern high latitudes that can cause his to slow up and come weat. Time will tell.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 Gfs_namer_132_10m_wnd_precip

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Post by Dtone Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:48 am

Today will be a record 109th 80+ degree day in the Park.
The record 62 straight 80+ days are an almost exact opposite to the record 61 straight days with highs 45 or below we had earlier in the year.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:49 am

@Dtone wrote:Today will be a record 109th 80+ degree day in the Park.
The record 62 straight  80+ days are an almost exact opposite to the record 61 straight days with highs 45 or below we had earlier in the year.

Gotta love a tenet of statistics set in concrete....reversion to the mean!
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:50 pm

Really not much to talk about except we'll see temps fall into normal next week Smile ;D

Here are some EURO images:

Sunday:

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2max_neng_14

Monday:

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2max_neng_18

Tuesday:

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2max_neng_22


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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 19, 2015 12:19 pm

Re 96L:  Looks like low level circulation center has drifted south this am.  Completely devoid of convection anywhere near it however.  The bigger black circle is the main LLC.  There might be another small center spinning just to the NE of the main center.  

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 Rgb-animated
September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 Rb-animated

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 <a href=September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 96l10" />

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 96L_tracks_latest


20-30 kts windshear over top with outflow only in the NE quad., so not likely to see much development out of this any time soon. \
September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 6 Wg8shr

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by snow247 Mon Sep 21, 2015 6:11 am

52 here this morning

Look at the temps upstate, mid 30's with frost advisories.
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