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September Observations/ Discussion

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Post by docstox12 Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:03 pm

@snow247 wrote:Starting to see quite a bit of color up here now, I guess the drought is causing such an early change.

Noticed that as well, snow, driving down Route 17 to get on 287.

I think you are right about droughts affecting tree color, read something about that long ago.
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Post by mako460 Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:17 pm

Hey Doc, the drought absolutely has something to do with the color. Everything is under stress right now and in order for the trees to save water, they will start shedding their leaves to conserve energy. The fewer the leaves the less water needed. Just like when a person is exposed to extreme cold, the outer limbs get cut out of blood flow in order to keep the body's core temp up. M

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Post by docstox12 Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:23 pm

Thanks, Mako,I was hoping you would come in on this with your expertise.

Great analogy and it sure is evident in areas around here!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:11 pm

A break from the warmer than normal weather is coming. So is some much needed rain. Models are expecting a front to pass through Thursday afternoon that could bring us half an inch to an inch of rain.

GFS model valid 1pm Thursday

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_6hr_precip_ne_18

Lingering showers will continue into Friday morning, but we'll clear up later that day with temps getting a ltitle cooler. Here are H5 heights from the GFS valid 1pm Friday. As the front moves out, the ULL over Hudson Bay in Canada allows negative heights to move over our area.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_z500_sig_noram_22

Wave lengths this time of year are still on the longer side. So even though we could be under negative heights next weekend temps may still manage to get into the lower 80s. There probably won't be much humidity, though, so it will feel like fall for some.

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:18 pm

So does mean the weather at my cousin's wedding on Saturday may turn out to be nice after all?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:32 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:So does mean the weather at my cousin's wedding on Saturday may turn out to be nice after all?

Yes Thumbs up

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Post by Dtone Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:56 am

60 straight 80+ days today. Sole possession of 1st place.
60 at LGA too. 65 @ EWR, all are all time records.

102 80+ days for the year, all time record is 108

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:03 pm

Welcoming rain is set to arrive on Thursday as a front works its way through the area. A ULL over the Hudson will have a front draped along its front-end. A secondary low is likely to pop somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic. GFS showing 1-2 inches of rain, but I noticed these things have trended drier this summer so it may be more of a .50-1.00" ordeal. Here is latest 12z GFS:

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_ptype_slp_ma_15

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_tprecip_ma_16

Then we will have to keep an eye out for next Monday. Could turn into nothing, but GFS has been showing a weak coastal low off our coast with H5 closing off.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_z500_sig_conus_30

That would bring temps way down if it came to fruition...

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_t2m_f_conus_30

Fast flow and no blocking, so I would bet against it for now.


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:22 pm

EURO also showing 1-2 inches of rain for the Thursday event

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Ecmwf_tprecip_nyc_19

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Post by amugs Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:11 pm

Hallelujah we can frickin' use it!!!

Hit 93.6* here today and my ac starting was having issues - it said when the h is this heat going to stop - its killing me - as it I had to shut it down for a 1/2 hour, clean the coils (not dirty at all) and then start it back it - that 1/2 hour break sent the temps in my house to 81* and now we are at 72!!

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Post by docstox12 Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:42 pm

Good news on that rain,Frank.

LR mid 70's up here day, mid 50's night end of week.Hopefully, the heat is broken for good and shorter daylight will enable cooling.Time to turn the page to Fall.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:12 pm

tomorrow's high temps...gross

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_t2max_nyc_5

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:38 am

Hope everyone had a great weekend..it was beautiful on the water!! .72 right now and 84% humidity...not so bad right now...the kids will be feeling it at school..always wondered at what temp they give them a half day..the class rooms are brutal..and yes we all survived our youth..lol..just wondering...does anyone know?
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:03 am

76* for a low in nyc today that set a record.
for low high or low minimum. going for broke today!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:01 am

Looks like consensus on 1-2 inches rain even with CMC, but look at LR CMC lol, if this is true get ready LoHud and Westchester! But of course its the CMC. It really goes nuts with the later Frank was talking about, now if it was only winter wer would all b going nuts, well not really its still the CMC.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Cmc_ra10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:02 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:tomorrow's high temps...gross

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_t2max_nyc_5

So glad I am in the office today, but not tomorrow ugg. I hear its supposed to still be over 90 but not as bad as today.
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Post by Dtone Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:43 pm

Torching today
higher than forecast
97 so far in Central Park.
Easily breaking record for the day. Also hottest temp of the year.

EWR 98, LGA 95. All records for the date.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:07 pm

I hit a high of 100° today way higher than expected. Also with that forest fire going on it made it horrible to breath today
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:21 pm

it was 96 here in Hazlet and I was only in school for an hour it was unbearable!! What is tom going to look like..Frank do you think it will be better than today??
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Post by snow247 Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:53 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Hope everyone had a great weekend..it was beautiful on the water!! .72 right now and 84% humidity...not so bad right now...the kids will be feeling it at school..always wondered at what temp they give them a half day..the class rooms are brutal..and yes we all survived our youth..lol..just wondering...does anyone know?

I heard that a school district in CT is getting a half day today and tomorrow due to the heat, haven't heard of any local districts doing the same though.
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Post by Dtone Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:56 pm

It was making a run at 100 before the sea breeze "cooled" things off to the low 90s.

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 08, 2015 5:05 pm

It hit 98.4* here at my home in Hillsdale and at my school in Allendale  no early dismissal here. Sad We sweated it out big time Evil or Very Mad


Last edited by amugs on Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:37 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by snow247 Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:18 pm

Made it to 97 here, hottest day of the year.
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Post by Noreaster Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:53 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Snow what is that?
Janet, it's the drough monitor.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:57 pm

Can't believe this was the hottest day of the year in some spots. Check out the orientation of the heights. Southwest flow with the High over the southeast. Then you have a trough over Montana which only helps to enhance the ridge in the east.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_namer_1

Tomorrow is going to be a repeat. Maybe not as many upper 90s but the heat index will still get into the 100s.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Ecmwf_t2max_12_nyc_7

Rain threat Thursday into early Friday can not come soon enough. This storm had the potential to be bigger, but the energy over the Great Lakes is going to scoot northeast instead of phasing with the southern front. Main reason for that is the progressive flow due to lack of ridging in the west. Nonetheless, waves of low pressure will develop along the front and bring substantial rain to the area. I have a feeling the heaviest falls in the overnight hours. Here is the EURO.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Ecmwf_qpf_th500_neng_12

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Ecmwf_tprecip_neng_15

You'll notice there is a "screw" zone to the north. H5 energy is disorganized and scattered. It's elongated along the surface front. GFS is further north with the surface low and everyone gets a good amount of rain. EURO is a bit more south.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500_vort_neng_12

I would expect .50-1.00" of rain with isolated areas getting 1.50."


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