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September Observations/ Discussion

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nutleyblizzard
CPcantmeasuresnow
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skinsfan1177
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Post by Quietace Wed Sep 09, 2015 7:55 pm

Wow, just had a potent storm move through Plymouth...ends about 2 dry weeks here

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Post by Dtone Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:10 pm

Dry here. I heard there was some water rescues on Staten Island. I forgot what rain looks like.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:11 pm

Still waiting here too...

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Dtone Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:31 pm

90 degrees today, making this month the first Sept to have 2 heat waves. A little surprising.

https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/641650030491893760

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Post by ak926 Thu Sep 10, 2015 3:45 am

Rain began here at 01:45am, Thunder to the NW at 0154, 0.24 so far !

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:29 am

Still dry here I hope we get something
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Post by docstox12 Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:43 am

67 degrees, 93%, 29.75 F, .09 in the bucket.Cloudy.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:45 am

Still no rain sun is out oh boy
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Post by mako460 Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:49 am

pouring here with some lightning

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 10, 2015 7:35 am

.10" by me but I certainly welcome the rain.
Rain seems to be to the south of me. But disgusting out with humidity at 98% with 71*- YUCK!
Do we get to 80* today to continue the streak??

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Sep 10, 2015 7:55 am

Starting to wonder if I'm a bust here
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Post by Guest Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:41 am

.50 here in Syosset LI. so far. heavy downpour moving through now as I type and more real heavy returns over Jersey shore heading this way. Heaviest still looks to come through tonight so won't be surprised to get 2" out of this system.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:06 am

A lot of the showers and storms have been spotty so far ahead of the front. Some areas have seen less than a tenth of an inch, while others are near half an inch or more. Everything will become more widespread by tonight into the early hours of tomorrow. The HRRR shows a lull early this afternoon with heavier storms moving in between 7-9pm and lasting through the night as the surface low passes over our area.

We will dry out a bit on Friday but more rain is expected to move in mid to late afternoon Saturday. The EURO is an outlier at the moment with showing a potent low pressure system cutting through PA and basically dry slotting our area.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 4 Ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_14

The CMC also cuts the low in the Great Lakes, but notice how it forms a secondary off our coast

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 4 Cmc_pr6_slp_t850_neng_16

The GFS does not even have a primary cutting to the west, just a coastal system

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 4 Gfs_ptype_slp_ne_17

The exact track and outcome of this system depends highly on how the deep mid-level trough is handled. If it closes off late, as the GFS suggests, we'll see a weak coastal system. If it closes off faster than what the GFS shows (basically the EURO solution) we'll see the primary cut to our west.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_eus_16

It's probably best to wait another day and see if we reach a consensus.


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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:49 am

Jeeze euro had some insane rain there to the west. If that did come over the area even with drought I think that would b a issue. Frank u think I could see some tstorms tonight? Not severe probably but I have seen very little lightning etc all summer.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 10, 2015 11:15 am

Some decent rain headed for LI

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 4 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.5152173913043478&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=492.1940928270043&centery=275.9071729957806&transx=92.19409282700428&transy=35

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 10, 2015 1:32 pm

Potency generating over SNJ
September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 4 Pchg

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:21 pm

Uhm, we're about to get poured on.

September Observations/ Discussion  - Page 4 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by snow247 Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:41 pm

Dry here... For now
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Post by snow247 Thu Sep 10, 2015 3:44 pm

Raining moderately
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Sep 10, 2015 4:02 pm

Wow, Mt Holly radar blowing up, esp CNJ and moving north.
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:28 pm

Pouring here.58" in the bucket at 70* which us the lowest temp since last week

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:29 pm

74* and steady rain..we have accumulated almost 3 inches since yesterday afternoon.
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Post by algae888 Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:31 pm

1.25" of rain for the park. Should easily get to 2" when all is said and done. Eastern areas can expect up to 4 inches of rain. This system definitely overachieved.
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Post by snow247 Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:35 pm

I thought NW of us was where the higher totals would be?
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Post by algae888 Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:47 pm

@snow247 wrote:I thought NW of us was where the higher totals would be?
The heavy rain ended up being focused near the front which is over eastern Long Island. Most of Long Island and Eastern Connecticut have seen two inches or more of rain so far. flash flood watches and warnings are up for the whole island and Eastern Connecticut
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