Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

One thing to point out about Sandy:

I have in an Excel file the AO, NAO, and PNA readings for pretty much every day from January 1st, 1950 to August 31st, 2015.  The NAO on October 29th, 2012 (the day Sandy hit) was -2.218, which out of 23,892 days ranks #79 on the list of lowest NAO readings.

I'm not sure how the potential Joaquin setup compares though.

00z GFS shows a historic deluge of rainfall later in the week. ~ a foot of it not even including Wed AM rainfall.

updated rain totals from nws...

while the gfs has buckets of rain with late week system cmc is a miss as it develops 2 lows in the atlantic and is further east...

big difference between gfs and cmc at 500mb...

cmc

gfs
gfs trough is sharper and stronger and further north and west where as cmc is broader with three closed lows a further east.

euro ensembles look more like gfs but further west... not a good sign!

although nws has highlighted potential for weekend system in hwo I feel they are being to conservative atm. with 1-3" of rain coming tonight and wens and high potential for at least significant rain for weekend thinking they should be more proactive with this threat. euro ensembles and gfs op look real bad for us imo and while nhc and nws feel Joaquin will stay offshore i feel guidance will come west and possibly make landfall some where near us. obviously strength is still in question but has trended stronger and west the last 24hrs. better to be on safe side with this event.

6z nam total rainfall thru Friday 2pm...

00z gfs thru sunday...

Models will continue waffling back and forth until today's system is out of here. Euro just missed the phase last night while the GFS was downright scary with all the rain it showed.

I was wonder what happened with the euro where was the block I did not expect ots. It looked like the system just missed the phase by a tiny bit and the left over of Ida made it in here if I wasn't mistaken. Do u see that being a possibility ots or unlikely? I agree with AL and wow the rain map is nuts.

I also noticed nhc has Joaquin well south of here still on sunday. Is it progged to slow now?

algae888 wrote:updated rain totals from nws...

how much of this includes weekend? Since nhc shows storm way sputh here by Sunday I would think not much or like u said the nhc being too conservative. I think watches and warnings should start tomorrow if things still look as bad as gfs or the euro does phase which I have feeling it will.

Frank_Wx wrote:Models will continue waffling back and forth until today's system is out of here. Euro just missed the phase last night while the GFS was downright scary with all the rain it showed.

Euro Missed the phase because it spun up Joaquin fast and furious causing it to kinda do its own thing. It recurves without being captured by the SE trough and bullies its way through the block. LP still forms along the stalled front off the EC with a Trop moisture feed but Joaquin stays off shore. Not sure that happens.

The sgetti models now taking a big nw trip and are condensing into similar area as sandy. Intensity model fwiw get it to cat 1 even higher on a few but drop drastically at 120hrs.  The 06z GFS is like Euro and has more than half as much rain as the 00z.  I do not think this solution will b reality though, like sroc said not sure if that phase miss happens.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:ULAC setup?

Something I just learned from a neighbiring met called a ULAC - Upper-level anti-cyclonic flow over a tropical system that allows latent heat release and decreases shear. Thus allowing the cyclone to strengthen and expand.

Would favor a much stronger system like the ECM/HWRF/GFDL/UKM are showing - thus is going to be a MAJOR concern that models might not be able to pick up on as he explained to me.

mugs if the hwrf or gfdl were even slightly right id b doomsday.  Never heard of that but very interesting.

Guys this is nothing new.  You all have prob heard of this.  In order for a tropical system to strengthen a number of factors are needed.  Wind shear is one but so is the upper air pattern.  The Upper air anti cyclone simply refers to clockwise wind direction that diverges from the center.  Otherwise know as high pressure.  When this feature is in the upper levels over top the center of a tropical system it acts as an exhaust for the tropical system.  When a true anticyclone sits atop a tropical system as the air leaves the center of the anticyclone in the upper levels it needs to be replaced by the air beneath it.  This leads to enhanced rising air which in turns means lowering pressures at the surface = strengthening system.   Currently there is not a true anticyclone over the center but there is strong upper divergence.  I have highlighted in black the upper level winds

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Result.  Strong divergence aloft
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Also moving into an environment with less wind shear: (I have enhanced those lines in yellow and circled the wind speads in black) Notice just how strong the wind shear increases immediately to the north
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Fairly impressive looking 40mph system, lots of convection to work with, big and seems to continue to fire.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

Gotta love JB lol, I dunno if thats gonna happen but I guess if shear dies and joaquin stays in all that water maybe a cat 2 is possible, think he is shooting through roof here though. Oh and I do not see the fijiwara with CMC happening I watch that model for fun now, it almost never verifies on tropical systems.

JB Tweet: Shear should relax over Joaquin tom/Thur and if that is the cap holding it down, see no reason why should not intensify to cat 2 or 3

Well, one thing about these tropical systems: We don't have to worry about where the rain/snow line is going to fall or when the mixing/changeover to rain will occur. If it's even close to on track to hit NJ everyone in its path will get wind and heavy rain. (this is said somewhat tongue in cheek as I do realize the exact location of landfall can make a big difference in terms of storm surge, wind speed, etc)

And Visible GOES loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL112015

Mommia Mia look at this loop run - Insane!!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_6z/gfsloop.html

Quietace wrote:

And Visible GOES loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL112015

That loop is amazing ryan. You can see the LLC sneak out from under the Convection then get pulled back under towards the end of the loop. Do you have a link to the home page for that site?

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

And Visible GOES loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL112015

That loop is amazing ryan.  You can see the LLC sneak out from under the Convection then get pulled back under towards the end of the loop.  Do you have a link to the home page for that site?

I watched that last night on he floater page, I thought was really cool. Also means its getting better organized. 12z will be interesting today, wonder if we see similar to over night or if the models go more in line with a NW landfall near area. Probably still go waffle as stated until this coming rain is out of here. Looks like the majority is going north of here, is that possible to change?

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

And Visible GOES loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL112015

That loop is amazing ryan.  You can see the LLC sneak out from under the Convection then get pulled back under towards the end of the loop.  Do you have a link to the home page for that site?

Yup,
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/
Also,
This site may also be useful for you
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL112015

Man thought we had some models coming in line, I guess not what a wide spread, also to note old ida is up to a 40% chance of development, could this also play a factor in the future weather here, like also combine into the mix? And 99L seems to want to cross into atlantic many tropical systems moving in together dang.  I noted the models last night pulled that LP in instead of Joaquin when the eURO missed the pick up.  Lots of uncertainty thats for sure. Yes am aware these are not very reliable but still interesting to look at, though they end pints are a huge sopread a general recurve back to the US is shown on pretty much all of them.

Woah (yes also not reliable) but others have been hinting at a big time increase in intensity in coming days as it leaves high shear.

I am beginning to think the more Joanquin strengthens, the lower the likelihood she ends up phasing. A stronger system will slow her down and she will miss the phase. Instead, the block to the NE will naturally turn her into the coast. This means landfall could occur well south of us - between Carolina's and MD. We'll see....