Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Okay, so your going against the NHC and saying it wont be tropical cuz right now fri 2pm its still tropical.
No no, let me be clearer.
This is a tropical entity. However, when it makes landfall over the U.S. it will be because it got captured by a negative / closed 500 mb trough. It's basically going to phase with the trough just like Sandy. The intensification the storm undergoes is not due to natural tropical variables such as warm water, low wind shear, etc...it's because of the phase with the trough so now it's no longer a pure tropical storm. It's a hybrid / sub-tropical system.
Because of the other players involved in the upper air to get this storm to materialize....I am discounting the hurricane models because they do not handle those other atmospheric features well.
Understood that completely, thanks. I wonder what if any wind impacts it will have, i imagine there will be at least some. I wanna crack out my anemometer lol, does this have the potential to be strong enough to warrent more than TS issues or do you believe at this time it stays winds below 70mph, surge below I dont know that one etc?
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Ok once it gets named its pronounced wah-keen, going ethnic names.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
billg315 wrote:While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.
Couldn't agree more I don't care what technical name you call it its the damage that it causes.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
skinsfan1177 wrote:billg315 wrote:While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.
Couldn't agree more I don't care what technical name you call it its the damage that it causes.
Yup. Recall Irene. Inland is where the worst of Irene occurred. It was the 6-10 inches of rain that downed trees, caused flooding and incited mudslides. Winds or no winds there will be significant impacts with the rain totals I am expecting. The details of where and exactly how much and if wind will play a role are still unknown.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank is that the newest spaghetti plot map
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
skinsfan1177 wrote:billg315 wrote:While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.
Couldn't agree more I don't care what technical name you call it its the damage that it causes.
triple agree, i said this a few times but where I am we have weak trees after tomorrow nights rain any wind over 40+ mph and we going have uprooted trees, and add another possible 10 inches+ verbatim the 18z gfs (not sure I buy that), however all the models have hinted at 6+ additional it would get ugly.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
sroc4 wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:billg315 wrote:While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.
Couldn't agree more I don't care what technical name you call it its the damage that it causes.
Yup. Recall Irene. Inland is where the worst of Irene occurred. It was the 6-10 inches of rain that downed trees, caused flooding and incited mudslides. Winds or no winds there will be significant impacts with the rain totals I am expecting. The details of where and exactly how much and if wind will play a role are still unknown.
Absolutely. So much rain in a short period of time could bring devastation to an area. Irene put my town under water.
skinsfan1177 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank is that the newest spaghetti plot map
Look at the key. Some are 12z and others are 18z
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Thats the latest and its honing in on central jrsy, errily close or exactly same place as sandy and close to irene. but these change all the time but these seem to have been getting more condensed.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Very true sroc about Irene. I actually was without power just as long and had more water damage from Irene than from Sandy.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
I was lucky with irene but a lot of my city was not. The rain was intense but not this intense. VT was terrible, My gpa lived up there and we had cancel our trip as there was not one way to get to him, thank goodness nothing happened to him. RIP gpa
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Irene brought more rain for me here but Sandy was devastating and like I said the Jersey shore is not ready for anything close to that
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
TD 11, likely going b a TS at 11pm really blowing up, still sheared to the SE but its in a area of low shear right now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-rb-short.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-rb-short.html
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
18z NAVGEM shows impressive H5. That would be a strong storm for us
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAVGEM shows impressive H5. That would be a strong storm for us
WOW holy crap
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
I think watches might be posted by wed or thurs latest, regardless what u call it, we will see a slew of NWS advisories watches or warnings.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Latest 00z guidance
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
NAVGEM surface is weak but I know that image u posted is more important. thats a huge tilt.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
ULAC setup?
Something I just learned from a neighbiring met called a ULAC - Upper-level anti-cyclonic flow over a tropical system that allows latent heat release and decreases shear. Thus allowing the cyclone to strengthen and expand.
Would favor a much stronger system like the ECM/HWRF/GFDL/UKM are showing - thus is going to be a MAJOR concern that models might not be able to pick up on as he explained to me.
Something I just learned from a neighbiring met called a ULAC - Upper-level anti-cyclonic flow over a tropical system that allows latent heat release and decreases shear. Thus allowing the cyclone to strengthen and expand.
Would favor a much stronger system like the ECM/HWRF/GFDL/UKM are showing - thus is going to be a MAJOR concern that models might not be able to pick up on as he explained to me.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
From Anthony Siciliano on Twitter...projected radar tomorrow night. You can see TD 11 in the bottom right
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
amugs wrote:ULAC setup?
Something I just learned from a neighbiring met called a ULAC - Upper-level anti-cyclonic flow over a tropical system that allows latent heat release and decreases shear. Thus allowing the cyclone to strengthen and expand.
Would favor a much stronger system like the ECM/HWRF/GFDL/UKM are showing - thus is going to be a MAJOR concern that models might not be able to pick up on as he explained to me.
mugs if the hwrf or gfdl were even slightly right id b doomsday. Never heard of that but very interesting.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Atlantic SST anomalies
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Upton HWO
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS RAIN
MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS RAIN
MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
Frank_Wx wrote:Atlantic SST anomalies
Thats going to be a big factor, been ripe all year looks like it gonna crack this time.
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Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)
aiannone wrote:Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.
Good point, but HP placement seems to change with every model run. We'll have to watch that closely.
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