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Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:50 pm

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 4 Post-25-0-63232600-1443487505

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Post by billg315 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:02 pm

While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:05 pm

@billg315 wrote:While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.

Couldn't agree more I don't care what technical name you call it its the damage that it causes.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:10 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.

Couldn't agree more I don't care what technical name you call it its the damage that it causes.

Yup. Recall Irene. Inland is where the worst of Irene occurred. It was the 6-10 inches of rain that downed trees, caused flooding and incited mudslides. Winds or no winds there will be significant impacts with the rain totals I am expecting. The details of where and exactly how much and if wind will play a role are still unknown.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:10 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 4 Post-25-0-63232600-1443487505

Frank is that the newest spaghetti plot map
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:11 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.

Couldn't agree more I don't care what technical name you call it its the damage that it causes.

triple agree, i said this a few times but where I am we have weak trees after tomorrow nights rain any wind over 40+ mph and we going have uprooted trees, and add another possible 10 inches+ verbatim the 18z gfs (not sure I buy that), however all the models have hinted at 6+ additional it would get ugly.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:13 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:While there is clearly a scientific meteorological difference between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, hybrid storms, at the end of the day it is the impact that is most important and some of these models are scary in terms of the impact this COULD have -- especially if it comes a couple days after 2-3 inches of rain.

Couldn't agree more I don't care what technical name you call it its the damage that it causes.

Yup. Recall Irene. Inland is where the worst of Irene occurred. It was the 6-10 inches of rain that downed trees, caused flooding and incited mudslides. Winds or no winds there will be significant impacts with the rain totals I am expecting.  The details of where and exactly how much and if wind will play a role are still unknown.

Absolutely. So much rain in a short period of time could bring devastation to an area. Irene put my town under water.

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 4 Post-25-0-63232600-1443487505

Frank is that the newest spaghetti plot map

Look at the key. Some are 12z and others are 18z

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:13 pm

Thats the latest and its honing in on central jrsy, errily close or exactly same place as sandy and close to irene. but these change all the time but these seem to have been getting more condensed.
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Post by billg315 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:14 pm

Very true sroc about Irene. I actually was without power just as long and had more water damage from Irene than from Sandy.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:17 pm

I was lucky with irene but a lot of my city was not. The rain was intense but not this intense. VT was terrible, My gpa lived up there and we had cancel our trip as there was not one way to get to him, thank goodness nothing happened to him. RIP gpa
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:19 pm

Irene brought more rain for me here but Sandy was devastating and like I said the Jersey shore is not ready for anything close to that
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:21 pm

TD 11, likely going b a TS at 11pm really blowing up, still sheared to the SE but its in a area of low shear right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-rb-short.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:22 pm

18z NAVGEM shows impressive H5. That would be a strong storm for us

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 4 Nvg10_500_132_namer

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:25 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAVGEM shows impressive H5. That would be a strong storm for us

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 4 Nvg10_500_132_namer

WOW holy crap
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:26 pm

I think watches might be posted by wed or thurs latest, regardless what u call it, we will see a slew of NWS advisories watches or warnings.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:27 pm

Latest 00z guidance

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 4 IMG_20150928_212643

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:28 pm

NAVGEM surface is weak but I know that image u posted is more important. thats a huge tilt.
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Post by amugs Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:29 pm

ULAC setup?

Something I just learned from a neighbiring met called a ULAC - Upper-level anti-cyclonic flow over a tropical system that allows latent heat release and decreases shear. Thus allowing the cyclone to strengthen and expand.

Would favor a much stronger system like the ECM/HWRF/GFDL/UKM are showing - thus is going to be a MAJOR concern that models might not be able to pick up on as he explained to me.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:30 pm

From Anthony Siciliano on Twitter...projected radar tomorrow night. You can see TD 11 in the bottom right

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:32 pm

@amugs wrote:ULAC setup?

Something I just learned from a neighbiring met called a ULAC - Upper-level anti-cyclonic flow over a tropical system that allows latent heat release and decreases shear. Thus allowing the cyclone to strengthen and expand.

Would favor a much stronger system like the ECM/HWRF/GFDL/UKM are showing - thus is going to be a MAJOR concern that models might not be able to pick up on as he explained to me.

mugs if the hwrf or gfdl were even slightly right id b doomsday. Never heard of that but very interesting.
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Post by aiannone Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:34 pm

Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:37 pm

Atlantic SST anomalies

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 4 September_28_2015_93651_PM_EDT

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:38 pm

Upton HWO

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS RAIN
MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Atlantic SST anomalies

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 4 September_28_2015_93651_PM_EDT

Thats going to be a big factor, been ripe all year looks like it gonna crack this time.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:40 pm

@aiannone wrote:Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.

Good point, but HP placement seems to change with every model run. We'll have to watch that closely.

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