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Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:27 am

Goodnight all. We'll see how this looks tomorrow. If EURO holds and goes OTS, I think we'll see the GFS also go OTS 6z or 12z tomorrow.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:27 am

8-10 inches rain in NJ, 4-5 elsewhere.
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Post by Tzvi732 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:29 am

Jman u mean 8to10 this whole week or just from Saturday and Sunday?!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:32 am

The UKMET is tracking into New England. We're literally back to square one.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:34 am

UKMET went out to sea

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Post by mmanisca Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:34 am

If the Euro is maintains its current track then I say yes this model is adjusting to the Euro albeit 1 run a forecast does not make.
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Post by pdubz Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:35 am

what was UKMET last run?
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Post by Joe Snow Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:46 am

@Abba701 wrote:By the way not 1 GFS ensemble takes OTS about 2-3 into New Jersey.

Was it on to something before?
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:47 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Bastardi believes GFS was trending to EURO. Sounds like he's leaning OTS
well I just woke up and couldn't believe my eyes. wow!!! then my next thought was gfs starting to cave to euro. I agree with bastardi. and who wants to be bulls eye anyway 4 to 5 days out.
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:49 am

the king euro will prevail!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:53 am

I just honestly dont know as pretty much no one does I think.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:56 am

CMC started lets see what it does....
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:11 am

GGEM is still a NC hit. Ukie scrapes New England. What the hell. Lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:13 am

cmc shoot oh man!

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 39 Cmc_pr12

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:15 am

Looked like it was going north.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:19 am

I am like so ready for this to be in the home stretch i wanna know whats gonna happen lol
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:14 am

Whered the cmc go? GFS threw me a curveball, going to keep my mouth shut for a bit...
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Post by Abba701 Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:18 am

I heard CMC-Caroline ,Euro -OTS

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:24 am

Yea CMC is northern NC landfalm then drifts over Delmarva then over NJ/NYC as a mid-990s low still spinning and raining, nasty rainy and windy for days if it verifies, heard euro is still ots too, no agreement still. Some models still showing GA landfalls and abrupt turns east into nowhere.
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Post by Abba701 Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:29 am

The Euro is OTS.That GFS better be wrong.

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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:41 am

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 39 11L_gefs_latest
many gfs ensembles ots and mean is ots. no ensemble has a direct hit on nyc metro like op showed.
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:44 am

we are probably going to see a shift east by nhc at 5am
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:47 am

I wonder what effect joaqiun will have on atlantic sst. will upswelling bring temps down and how will this effect our upcoming winter season?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:58 am

I'm hearing that Euro is still out to sea so maybe the GFS is catching on and Euro is the king I guess we will see today
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:06 am

The EURO kept Joaquin out to sea and it looks like the 06z gfs is about to do the same. It's still scary close, however. Yesterday the models were too far west and that allowed the trough to capture the storm and take it into NC. Last night and so far this morning, the models are east with Joaquin so it's either no capture or a very late capture with the trough. There is still a long way to go before we can say we're in the clear. Just a few miles of movement west with Joaquin that the models didn't predict could mean the difference between OTS and direct hit

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