NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front

+8
sroc4
amugs
algae888
CPcantmeasuresnow
Dunnzoo
Math23x7
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
12 posters

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:45 pm

Moderate to heavy rain will move into the area late Tuesday and last through most of Wednesday. Models are indecisive where the heaviest axis of rain sets up because they are uncertain where the surface low will develop then track. Actually, there could be a series of surface low that develop along the cold front.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  1st

Closed 500mb vortex in the southeast will get picked up by an oncoming front. The vort is going to open up but there is still a lot of 500mb vorticity working its way north and interacting with the front. A series of surface low pressure systems will ride along the front over our area. Whether they ride north of us or south of us is where uncertainty lies. If they go north, we'll see less rain and be in more of a "dry" slot. If they go south we'll see substantial rain leading to flash flooding. Meanwhile, near the Bahamas is where Tropical Depression 11 is churning. This will be our weekend storm. To the north is the Bermuda High helping to slow the flow down and ultimately clash all these energies over the Northeast.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Gfs_uv250_us_9

The 250mb / 180kt jet streak aloft is going to help enhance this front once it approaches our area. Strong winds in the mid latitudes is going to create an unstable atmosphere which will create an "explosive" environment for these H5 vorts and front and work with.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Ecmwf_qpf_th500_neng_9

The 12z EURO has a very heavy band of rain sitting over northern NJ, NYC, LI, and CT Wednesday morning. Since the rain is falling along the front - which will be slow moving in nature - this could create localized flash flooding. Especially in flood prone zones.

Right now, I will say at least 1-2" of rain is likely from this system with the potential for 2+ inches of rain in areas that are under the heavy rain bands. The GFS and GGEM are not as bullish as the EURO with the rain. They show a weaker system but they could be downplaying the impressive dynamics.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:49 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:47 pm

18z RGEM through Wednesday afternoon is impressive with the rain. Heaviest staying mostly south of us.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Post-6-0-10998300-1443475553

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:06 pm

Wow that's a lot of rain. One issue this rain could cause is saturated ground and any wind we may see with the hybrid or ts hurricane whatever will make trees more likely to topple. Bad timing to have those in a row. Of course I understand later is still possible.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:36 pm

The NAM model has 3 inches of rain just with this system alone.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f54

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Math23x7 Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM model has 3 inches of rain just with this system alone.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f54

I stopped reading after NAM  lol!

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Dunnzoo Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:54 pm

So, I'll take a third off and go with maybe 2" for NNJ

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:17 am

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM model has 3 inches of rain just with this system alone.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f54

I stopped reading after NAM  lol!

Agreed. This map brought back nightmares of last years 40-50 inch NAM map covering Orange County the day before we were dusted up here with 4 inches of snow.

As Marlon Brando said in Apocalypse now, "The horror, the horror"
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:35 am

Still models are looking at widespread 1-3 inches safe bet possibly higher amounts.  Its humid as all hell out, only 70 this morning but I had the AC on because it was so humid. Can def tell that tropical fetch is being pulled in.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:39 am

We are inside 12 hours of the event and the models are still in disagreement where the placement of the surface low will be. Amazing how bad they are.

GFS is most north

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5

EURO is slightly south

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Ecmwf_qpf_th500_neng_7

GGEM is most south

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:59 am

Sheesh, yeah that is a big difference, so just goes to show how far off they probably are with Joaquin, hence why it makes total sense when you guys say we need wait for all this to get out of here. What would be your best guess at this time Frank, I am assuming we will know by this evening at that point we should be nowcasting I imagine?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by algae888 Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:42 am

Both the nam and rgem have cut back on rainfall with this system. Most of the heavy stuff goes to East or North. And it looks like north eastern New Jersey is in that hole again with less than an inch of rain tonight and tomorrow on my cell so can't post maps
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:43 am

12z GFS keeps all the heavy rain to the north upstate VT etc get hammered.  Wow if this and the weekend don't play out what a double barrel bust. Also note Joaquin 3mb stronger than was last run.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Gfs_pr11
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:45 am

Wow 12z we see .5-1.5 at most for southern areas, upstate pushing 7 inches!!

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Gfs_tp10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by amugs Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:29 pm

WPC

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Fill_94qwbg

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12440
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:33 pm

Incoming

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.5632514177693761&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=467.52718485702786&centery=212.0412135857162&transx=67.52718485702786&transy=-27

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6974
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Guest Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:34 pm

@amugs wrote:WPC

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Fill_94qwbg
That's just next 24 hours though. Front sags lower offshore and the coast gets at least an inch of rain every day through day 7!! Shocked Shocked Shocked

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:39 pm

This event will be 1-2" for most. Probably closer to the 1 inch range than 2. Models cut way back as the surface low tracks NORTH of our area. This is good news since we could get much more this weekend. Would help lessen the flood threat.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by amugs Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:45 pm

http://www.weather.gov/images/marfc/fop/fop.jpg

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12440
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Math23x7 Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:This event will be 1-2" for most. Probably closer to the 1 inch range than 2. Models cut way back as the surface low tracks NORTH of our area. This is good news since we could get much more this weekend. Would help lessen the flood threat.

But then again we really need the rain. We had a chance to wipe out the 2015 precipitation deficit over the next week. But yes, it's not good when it all comes in a short period of time.

PS: Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you Question Question Question

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:28 pm

@amugs wrote:http://www.weather.gov/images/marfc/fop/fop.jpg

that just barely includes Hudson river but does on the bottom just north NYC, I think the line crosses just over into Westchester which would include saw mill river.  Nice graphic where was that?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:48 pm

Rainfall through thurs way down. Interesting they pulled back the timeframe, maybe cuz unsure with Joanquin.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Stormt10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:22 pm

radar looks impressive!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:23 pm

Even though the surface low will track west then north of us, there's going to be instability in the atmosphere that will generate localized heavy downpours and t-storms. 1-2" is my forecast but would not shock me to see isolated areas get a little more.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:42 pm

Hey mugs!!!!!! It's raining in Bergen County!!!!!!! party

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:49 pm

Heaviest rain will fall between 3 and 8am tomorrow morning. Should come to an end by early afternoon. Clouds will linger all day. All week...actually. With showers.

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f15

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

September 29th-30th Tropical Front  Empty Re: September 29th-30th Tropical Front

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum