NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions

+29
Math23x7
Abba701
dkodgis
aiannone
sabamfa
CPcantmeasuresnow
Vinnydula
Grselig
UnionWX
rb924119
oldtimer
RJB8525
HectorO
Taffy
jimv45
NjWeatherGuy
weatherwatchermom
skinsfan1177
jmanley32
sroc4
Dtone
Dunnzoo
amugs
billg315
devsman
Quietace
docstox12
snow247
Frank_Wx
33 posters

Page 5 of 18 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 11 ... 18  Next

Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:05 pm

LOL,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGhov86GQbQ
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:01 am

Spike in PNA - could be interesting next week with that LP that is to be coming out of the Gulf or Caribbean that JMAN talked about.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Post-564-0-13699600-1444218631

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12198
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:47 am

Imagine this for us ever here - people would snap!!
Look out at how this LP does a 360 - imagine this for a hcane?? or a Nor'Easter. This happened I believe for the 1978 blizzard or PD (presidents Day) blizzard. Snowmegedon 2010 retrograded but then rotted over CT

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/651523586583318528

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12198
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:21 pm

Rain for Friday

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f57

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f60

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12198
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:17 pm

Yes, less than an inch of rain is expected Friday from a passing front. Cooler temps will follow behind the front. We may not get out of the 60's this weekend. It's going to feel like Fall for sure.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:45 am

Threat of T-storms in October (Friday this is) - lovely - more than this past summer!

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12198
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:48 am

For the cool down and to help support what Frank has on the ticker and Scott's post - the EPO going to FALL - HAHAHA!

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Post-7472-0-12186700-1444306608

PNA Spike, NAO goes Negative and EPO pos then drops negative

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 4panel

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12198
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:53 am

This ripped form another site

Euro seasonal update J-M . Has not changed . There is still a deep NEG S of the Aleutians with a big POS centered just WEST of Hudson Bay , with a trough extending through the S with the NEG focused from TEX into the SE .

Good frickin news for our incoming winter!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12198
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by UnionWX Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:42 pm

The best threat of Severe Storms will most likely be to our North.
UnionWX
UnionWX

Posts : 31
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2015-10-05
Age : 35
Location : Hardyston Twp, NJ (NE Sussex)

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:34 pm

@UnionWX wrote:The best threat of Severe Storms will most likely be to our North.

The RGEM has heavy returns over our area. We'll see.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 PNMPR_panel

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:26 pm

They busted on lows tonight, last I saw on TWC was 61 and Weatherbug 58, already down to 50 according to home thermometer and fog everywhere
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Oct 09, 2015 3:08 am

Warm front must be draping through ahead of the front, temps up to 58 and feeling more humid and a little summerlike.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:31 am

http://www.ilsnow.com/2015/10/07/winter-2015-16-outlook/

Thought this was a Great read for this upcoming winter and a lot of what you guys talked about.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:33 am

This from Upton this morning regarding tonight's frontal passage and rainfall amts:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS EVENING.


Not that its a huge deal, because it isn't, but I think they are underdoing the rainfall amts for "some" areas. From what I am seeing totals between 0.25-0.5" might occur esp over parts of LI, CT coast and central NJ. I just installed my new weather station high up on my roof(much to my wife's dismay) fully equipped with state of the art rain gauge, so Upton Im ready to prove you wrong Suspect

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6888
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:41 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:http://www.ilsnow.com/2015/10/07/winter-2015-16-outlook/

Thought this was a Great read for this upcoming winter and a lot of what you guys talked about.

Yes simple, great graphics read. Hitting upon we we are talking about here.. Thanks for sharing.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12198
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:45 am

Any idea on timing for the rain today
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:54 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Any idea on timing for the rain today

Start time between 3:00pm-5:00pm.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Quietace Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:06 am

41.3/41.0 R+

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Grselig Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:10 am

Couple of showers popping up in Wayne.
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1328
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 51
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:57 am

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Inxr1Kphla_h

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:27 am

Models have trended a little stronger with the cold front coming through later today. I am increasing rainfall amounts for the area from .50" to .75" to 1.00"

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 OWWIrbg

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:33 am

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 HRRR-15MIN_Radar_ne_f540

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:51 am

We have sun breaking out over NJ. This will help fuel the storms later on.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_ne_us.php

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:57 am

NAM has heaviest storms over NYC Metro between 2-5pm

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 2cKtJMl

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:01 am

HRRR

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Hrrr_ref_nyc_10

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Hrrr_ref_nyc_11

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2015 Observations & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 18 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 11 ... 18  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum