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October 2015 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:10 am

Looks like the 12z NAM has the best convection over LI, where SBCAPE is at it's highest.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 6 NamNE_con_sbcape_006

Sims reflect that

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 6 NamNE_prec_radar_012

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:11 am

South and east, south and east! Not again!

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:46 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:South and east, south and east! Not again!


told ya party told ya

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:31 pm

Frank CAPE looks highest over SEPA and west NJ from what you posted, not LI, LI actually looks very low which makes sense because storms tend to die out as they near the ocean, would expect best threat inland
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:26 pm

Incoming

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 6 Inxr1Knyca_h

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Vinnydula Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:40 pm

Out in the woods camping just worried about how strong the winds are with the front?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 09, 2015 3:53 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:South and east, south and east! Not again!

it is beautiful and sunny here right now...so don't feel bad..
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 09, 2015 3:56 pm

Frank do you see us getting any rain here this evening..sunny right now..but my son has baseball game this evening tx
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 09, 2015 3:58 pm

Ugh, north and south of us now, hopefully that line to the west of me will hold together!

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:10 pm

I'm about to get hit by that small cell.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:15 pm

Just getting clipped by one now, just on the north end of it.

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:20 pm

Im in a good spot if it holds together, severe wx watch in October unusual but not really rare, the tornado watch in february when there was still snow on the ground now the other year that was a weird one.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:50 pm

Wow nuts here in bx. Tropical downpour and the wind just blasted in from nowhere.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:58 pm

Alert alert

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 6 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:06 pm

Get poured on here 3 for 3!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:50 pm

Stand Corrected!! the wall of darkness is upon us..it's coming!! Shocked LOL
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:56 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Stand Corrected!! the wall of darkness is upon us..it's coming!! Shocked   LOL

It sure is, south of East Brunswick it's going to be fun! Just coming across the river in Central and Southern NJ.

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:56 pm

Wow, best display of CTG lightning ive seen in a very long time in terms of display and frequency, good downpouring too, oddly enough not the slightest breeze or wind but the temp did drop 12 degrees or so.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:59 pm

Just got home from work and found out why, nice cell!

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

50+ dbz
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Post by Guest Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:17 pm

Best storm of the year hands down. Not even close. 3 seperate rounds since 5 p.m. 1.6" so far and still pouring. Tons of lightning awesome. Very Happy Very Happy

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:20 pm

The lightning was crazy.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:47 pm

All done here in NNJ...

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:47 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:Stand Corrected!! the wall of darkness is upon us..it's coming!! Shocked   LOL

It sure is, south of East Brunswick it's going to be fun! Just coming across the river in Central and Southern NJ.

safe travels!!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:57 pm

Thunder and lightning is pretty bad it's been rainy hard for 20 minutes now .40 and still coming down
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Post by Guest Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:58 pm

Pretty much done here in Syosset. I'm 2 miles due west of the Nassau/Suffolk border and north of the LIE. 1.73" so far and it looks to be about 20 more minutes of moderate rain. 1.8" is a good call. Great storm. SOUTH AND EAST WINS AGAIN Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up party party party party

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