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October 2015 Observations & Discussions

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:26 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hi all,

Kind of off topic. I want to get a better presence in social media. Method of promoting the forum a bit. Please follow or like me on Twitter and Facebook. Thanks!! Smile

Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/njstrongweatherpage?ref=hl

Twitter:

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx

Ha Frank I was the first one to like your facebook, I do not use twitter though I do have an acct. I also so far got several other people including my wife to like your page, do I get commission here lol.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:43 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Hi all,

Kind of off topic. I want to get a better presence in social media. Method of promoting the forum a bit. Please follow or like me on Twitter and Facebook. Thanks!! Smile

Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/njstrongweatherpage?ref=hl

Twitter:

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx

Ha Frank I was the first one to like your facebook, I do not use twitter though I do have an acct.  I also so far got several other people including my wife to like your page, do I get commission here lol.  

Yes, extra winds in your backyard during the next Nor'easter.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Hi all,

Kind of off topic. I want to get a better presence in social media. Method of promoting the forum a bit. Please follow or like me on Twitter and Facebook. Thanks!! Smile

Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/njstrongweatherpage?ref=hl

Twitter:

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx

Ha Frank I was the first one to like your facebook, I do not use twitter though I do have an acct.  I also so far got several other people including my wife to like your page, do I get commission here lol.  

Yes, extra winds in your backyard during the next Nor'easter.

I don't have a back yard : ( anywhere in my general vicinity will be cool, looks like there could be wind involved with either system. Much can change in the days to come though as we know. Can't wait to see the 1st for your outlook, seems very complex. Your statement that your pretty sure of a Godzilla in that certain timeframe amazes me how you could even start to guess that. Hence why you are my main go to. And trying to make others understand how good you are too, outside of our community.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:43 pm

Kinda off topic but holy god, Patricia in pacific has winds of 200mph with gusts to 250!!!! I have NEVER heard of such a thing, this will destroy where ever it makes landfall, no wonder it survives on models into gulf. I could do without winds that strong that's just downright scary, and even an apartment building may not with stand that. My gosh!
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Post by docstox12 Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:20 pm

J Man, 1935 Florida Hurricane that destroyed the railroad to Key West killing hundreds was recorded at 235 MPH.

52 degrees, 48% 30.07 R.Breezy, sunny peak Autumn colors.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:23 pm

Still crazy.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:34 pm

Hurricane Patricia is the strongest hurricane ever recorded by the NWS. Simply amazing. Her remnants will bring us rain Wednesday next week.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 CSBZlp7WIAAi2y3

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20E/flash-vis-long.htmlOctober 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 CSBFJQ2VEAIO9ez

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:34 pm

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 CSBbXcaVEAQ1F9l

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hurricane Patricia is the strongest hurricane ever recorded by the NWS. Simply amazing. Her remnants will bring us rain Wednesday next week.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 CSBZlp7WIAAi2y3

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20E/flash-vis-long.htmlOctober 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 CSBFJQ2VEAIO9ez

Holy Crap...hurricane hunters deserve a medal for flying through that.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hurricane Patricia is the strongest hurricane ever recorded by the NWS. Simply amazing. Her remnants will bring us rain Wednesday next week.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 CSBZlp7WIAAi2y3

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20E/flash-vis-long.htmlOctober 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 CSBFJQ2VEAIO9ez
Wow what a storm! One has to wonder if mother nature has an extreme weather event brewing this winter. A superstorm of 93 redux perhaps?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:06 pm

Strong El Nino and +PDO doing the work here. INSANE!!!!!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:09 pm

And the warm pool to the N of the Nino regions.  Al you were correct this morning.  I am surprised we all havent been talking about this one sooner.  Pretty amazing.

 October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by dkodgis Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:36 pm

Looking at the track of Patricia, will its path affect the Hudson Valley in say like four-five days? I thought I saw a NE trajectory. Also, on Oct 29 if we get some hot action weather-wise, what is envisioned? A Northeaster or just some rain? What about Nov 2. What's the action?
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:53 pm

Scott the waters off the south east coast have cooled dramatically. Is this temporary and will it have an impact on our winter weather? The Pacific is a hot tub. Are there any previous years that match the current Pacific? What's a little concerning is how dry it's been and we are now getting into the middle of the fall. I know El Nino has a greater effect in winter but i thought we would have seen some big storms by now.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:57 pm

@dkodgis wrote:Looking at the track of Patricia, will its path affect the Hudson Valley in say like four-five days? I thought I saw a NE trajectory.  Also, on Oct 29 if we get some hot action weather-wise, what is envisioned?  A Northeaster or just some rain?  What about Nov 2.  What's the action?

Check long range thread. I put out an update last night. The 29th storm will have the remnants of Patricia within it. It'll be a cutter and we'll be warm sectored. Nov 2nd storm is a possible Nor'easter but still details need to be ironed out. We have to get by the 29th storm first.

@algae888 wrote:Scott the waters off the south east coast have cooled dramatically. Is this temporary and will it have an impact on our winter weather? The Pacific is a hot tub. Are there any previous years that match the current Pacific? What's a little concerning is how dry it's been and we are now getting into the middle of the fall. I know El Nino has a greater effect in winter but i thought we would have seen some big storms by now.

Patricia is going to open the floodgates. StorM after storm can be expected from the 29th and on. Very active pattern heading into November. We'll probably be above normal too.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:59 pm

@sroc4 wrote:And the warm pool to the N of the Nino regions.  Al you were correct this morning.  I am surprised we all havent been talking about this one sooner.  Pretty amazing.

 October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Notice El Nino expanding west. Truly a basin-wide Nino with trends favoring warmth in the central regions.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:02 pm

Also, 1997 El Nino was stronger than this one and October 1997 featured below normal precip in the northeast too.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 Cd108.53.136.14.295.15.0.17.prcp

Then look what happened in November. Wetter anomalies started coming up the coast. Basically, this dry weather these last couple of months mean absolutely nothing.

October 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 15 Cd108.53.136.14.295.15.1.27.prcp

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:39 pm

Patricia breaks records, 879mb pressure and 200mph winds. Wow....
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:10 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Patricia breaks records, 879mb pressure and 200mph winds. Wow....

Imagine this is Atlantic make its way to wards the east coast - unparalleled - just like our winter set up as we have been discussing in the LR thread.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:35 am

27 degrees, 90%, 30.22 R. Dry as dust.Hoping for those storms Frank sees long range.
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:25 am

36* last night

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Post by amugs Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:25 am

36* last night

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Post by Quietace Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:58 am

25.3 last night

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:05 am

28.0 this morning, Doc beat me by 1 degree. Although I believe my 19.2 last weekend did beat his 20.

This should do it for the lawn I hope.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:08 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Patricia breaks records, 879mb pressure and 200mph winds. Wow....

For those of us over 50 that are still getting use to Millibar measurements, that's a 25.96 barometric reading which is ridiculous.
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