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El Nino and its *Possible* Interactions with the MJO

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El Nino and its *Possible* Interactions with the MJO Empty El Nino and its *Possible* Interactions with the MJO

Post by rb924119 Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:16 pm

Below you should find the link to this little write-up. Hopefully it's a good and interesting read!

Best,
Ray (rb924119)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYd0M5eXRMbVBlZ1E/view?usp=sharing

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Post by Guest Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:40 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Below you should find the link to this little write-up. Hopefully it's a good and interesting read!

Best,
Ray (rb924119)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYd0M5eXRMbVBlZ1E/view?usp=sharing

Nice write up. really cool stuff. Sounds promising for us snow weenies.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:39 am

@rb924119 wrote:Below you should find the link to this little write-up. Hopefully it's a good and interesting read!

Best,
Ray (rb924119)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYd0M5eXRMbVBlZ1E/view?usp=sharing

Ray phenomenal read. just got my learn on.  Thank you!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:52 am

Everything seems to be falling into place for us. We have the MJO phase locked, the best tropical forcing looks to be setting up by the dateline, and the aleutian low is in a favorable position. Not to mention there are definitive signs of a favorable Atlantic too. Trying not to get too far ahead of myself since we're still in early October, but if these anomalies remain the same come November, we just might be looking at a winter for the ages.
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:55 am

Rb,

Tremendous write and great read. What an addition to this board, thank you so much for sharing and now that we will have our MJO on watch out winter!! Nutley I wholeheartedly agree with your above post and been harping on that sentiment as well. Cohen released an article this week actually on the AO and I believe NAO state which he feels will be both be negative like the EPO that I have been demonstrating but not in the wicked sense of last winter. Just cold enough for white gold!!

Rb, this would help explain the WWB's (Westerly Wind Bursts) that have taken place in the EPAC as of the last month if I am interpreting this correctly in relation to your explanation of the MJO. Not saying the MJO is the cause of these but the SST's in Nino.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:12 am

@amugs wrote:Rb,

Tremendous write and great read. What an addition to this board, thank you so much for sharing and now that we will have our MJO on watch out winter!! Nutley I wholeheartedly agree with your above post and been harping on that sentiment as well. Cohen released an article this week actually on the AO and I believe  NAO state which he feels will be both be negative like the EPO that I have been demonstrating but not in the wicked sense of last winter. Just cold enough for white gold!!

Rb, this would help explain the WWB's (Westerly Wind Bursts) that have taken place in the EPAC as of the last month if I am interpreting this correctly in relation to your explanation of the MJO. Not saying the MJO is the cause of these but the SST's in Nino.


Mugs you have a link to Cohen's article??

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:19 pm

Thanks everybody!! I'm glad you all enjoyed it, and it helped to demonstrate something new. That's the beauty of this forum!!

@amugs wrote:Rb, this would help explain the WWB's (Westerly Wind Bursts) that have taken place in the EPAC as of the last month if I am interpreting this correctly in relation to your explanation of the MJO. Not saying the MJO is the cause of these but the SST's in Nino.

Most likely, even if only partially. Kelvin waves could be responsible too. Idk, that would require more investigation lol

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:59 pm

I have archived this write up Ray in the weather education section. Again great read.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:23 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Below you should find the link to this little write-up. Hopefully it's a good and interesting read!

Best,
Ray (rb924119)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYd0M5eXRMbVBlZ1E/view?usp=sharing

Finally had the chance to read this. Excellent, excellent writeup. It amazes me how weather on the opposite side of the globe can impact us. What's tough with the MJO is you can't forecast it in the long range. But since it can have such a strong influence on our pattern it could really put a wrench into someone's winter outlook if this played out opposite of what they're forecasting

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:19 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Below you should find the link to this little write-up. Hopefully it's a good and interesting read!

Best,
Ray (rb924119)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYd0M5eXRMbVBlZ1E/view?usp=sharing

Finally had the chance to read this. Excellent, excellent writeup. It amazes me how weather on the opposite side of the globe can impact us. What's tough with the MJO is you can't forecast it in the long range. But since it can have such a strong influence on our pattern it could really put a wrench into someone's winter outlook if this played out opposite of what they're forecasting

Hey hey hey - no negative vibes or juju here please only positive weenie stuff since we are all awaiting what is to come in a hopefully BIG way- okay commander?!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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