Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:34 pm

Here we go doc and mugsy!

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 4 South_10

by **docstox12** Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:42 pm

LOL, I want one to wear to the next GTG I go to!

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:44 pm

Maybe I can get some made up by Nov 7th!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:32 pm

https://instagram.com/p/8WSTArGeOt/

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:37 pm

Oh boy, gonna have the sand wiped out from under the equipment...

https://www.facebook.com/jeff.hubb.90/videos/547867612045309/

by **sroc4** Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:48 pm

docstox12 wrote:LOL, I want one to wear to the next GTG I go to!

Haha! me too Doc.

by Guest Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:52 pm

I was hoping for Sandy part 2!!!! Now i'm sitting here wishing this rain was snow. Frank better come through with a snow lovers fantasy prediction of a winter outlook, or I will be one angry guy at the get together. Mad

I want a tee shirt too, but i want mine to say I am south and east!!!

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:58 pm

Newest coordinates for Joaquin

24.1 N and 74.7 W Heading NE now....

by **jimv45** Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:06 pm

Can someone make me a shirt that says I AM IN THE HOLE! last few winters that's where I was!! Hope this year RB brings some good luck to this area!

by Guest Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:13 pm

jimv45 wrote:Can someone make me a shirt that says I AM IN THE HOLE! last few winters that's where I was!! Hope this year RB brings some good luck to this area!

you've been "in the hole" for 2 winters in a row??? Damn! I must be old. I could never even come close to that. Very Happy

by **jmanley32** Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jimv45 wrote:Can someone make me a shirt that says I AM IN THE HOLE! last few winters that's where I was!! Hope this year RB brings some good luck to this area!

you've been "in the hole" for 2 winters in a row??? Damn! I must be old. I could never even come close to that.

You dirty old man lol

On another note this weather is so depressing, any chance it stops raining north of southern WC before tomorrow morning?

by **jmanley32** Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:40 pm

I really hope all this bordom and misses of storms etc. is not a sign of our winter or I may cry.... Sad

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:54 pm

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2015/10/check_out_54_live_cam_views_of_nj_shore_towns_as_s.html#incart_m-rpt-2

some live cam's of the rough waters

by **jimv45** Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:59 pm

snow94 good one Very Happy

but I hope everyone has a good winter can't take these models anymore but I guess its all in fun.

by **devsman** Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:58 pm

Have a feeling this winter is gonna be "N&W"---12-18...along the coast and inch or two then change to rain. So depressing. But you N&W guys deserve it after last year.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:02 pm

8:00 advisory, continuing NE now 24.3 N 74.3 W, moving northeast at 7 mph, speeding up as projected

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:45 pm

Here in 2015 weve got phones with curved screens and more power and speed than the computers and systems that took us to the moon, we've got smart TVs and devices and homes and everything can be run remotely if setup, the power of technology is limitless and growing every day, yet we still cant predit where a storm will go more than a couple days out... And im not sure we will unless they come up with some new revolutionary means to come up with predicting these patterns because these models are frankly terrible...

by **amugs** Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:49 pm

docstox12 wrote:LOL, I want one to wear to the next GTG I go to!

LET'S DO IT!!! king

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:31 pm

amugs wrote:
docstox12 wrote:LOL, I want one to wear to the next GTG I go to!

LET'S DO IT!!!

What sizes guys, I'll see what I can do...

by **amugs** Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:34 pm

Large please

by **Math23x7** Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:47 pm

With all of this talk about snow holes, I think I should mention a different kind of screw zone when it comes to snowstorms, only it's for mixing issues rather than dryness issues. And that is the zone I live in. Take the part of Long Island (including Brooklyn and Queens) on the topographic map where the yellow line runs through (which I have marked as a thin black line. When it comes to snowstorms with marginal temperatures and/or mixing issues, this zone is usually the most likely place in the NYC region to change over to sleet/rain since during the wintertime months the water temperatures are usually warmer than they are on land. The winter of 2013-14 had many storms like this which why I got 48.7" of snow that winter while Central Park got 57.4" then. And James (syosnow94) you asked how it was possible I had about 50" of snow during the 2014-15 season while in Syosset you had over 70" of snow then. Well this gives a good illustration as to why it happens. The main reason I had more snow than CPK that year (granted it was by a small margin (CPK had 50.3" while I had 50.6") is because of "Juno" where CPK had 9.8" but I had 13" due to being in the heavy snowbands for a longer period of time than CPK was. CP may argue that the zookeeper had something to do with it even after the revisions in March but that's besides the point. I can tell you about the times where it was sleet/rain where I was while it was snow just miles away. Keep in mind, you CAN get more snow in this zone than surrounding areas but it happens when mesoscale bands move through the region (i.e. 2/22/08). And the zone can get less snow in all-snow systems, but when that happens the mesoscale bands are usually to the north and west (i.e. 2/12/06). Finally I wonder if I should extend this out to Montauk, but Im not sure about that.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:07 pm

^Storms that track closer to the coast turn you over to mix/rain faster where just inland locations hold onto snow longer and moreso the further inland you go but the ones where it tracks offshore dumps on you but screws inland (Dec 9, 09, Jan 10, 10, Nemo, Jan 2015) are some that come to mind, its a tradeoff. Youd think itd be much better to be in a location like mine 30 miles W of NYC in central NJ but time again I find myself cursing LI for stealing the big ones while I make my totals in several moderate events. Its what ive noticed over the past few years especially st least.

by Guest Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:42 pm

Math23x7 wrote:

With all of this talk about snow holes, I think I should mention a different kind of screw zone when it comes to snowstorms, only it's for mixing issues rather than dryness issues. And that is the zone I live in. Take the part of Long Island (including Brooklyn and Queens) on the topographic map where the yellow line runs through (which I have marked as a thin black line. When it comes to snowstorms with marginal temperatures and/or mixing issues, this zone is usually the most likely place in the NYC region to change over to sleet/rain since during the wintertime months the water temperatures are usually warmer than they are on land. The winter of 2013-14 had many storms like this which why I got 48.7" of snow that winter while Central Park got 57.4" then. And James (syosnow94) you asked how it was possible I had about 50" of snow during the 2014-15 season while in Syosset you had over 70" of snow then. Well this gives a good illustration as to why it happens. The main reason I had more snow than CPK that year (granted it was by a small margin (CPK had 50.3" while I had 50.6") is because of "Juno" where CPK had 9.8" but I had 13" due to being in the heavy snowbands for a longer period of time than CPK was. CP may argue that the zookeeper had something to do with it even after the revisions in March but that's besides the point. I can tell you about the times where it was sleet/rain where I was while it was snow just miles away. Keep in mind, you CAN get more snow in this zone than surrounding areas but it happens when mesoscale bands move through the region (i.e. 2/22/08). And the zone can get less snow in all-snow systems, but when that happens the mesoscale bands are usually to the north and west (i.e. 2/12/06). Finally I wonder if I should extend this out to Montauk, but Im not sure about that.

Makes sense to me. As you know I grew up 3/4 mile from where you live and know all too well about what you speak. Now I'm 15 miles North East between your line and the Long Island Sound on some of the highest ground on LI!! Very Happy

by **docstox12** Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:09 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:
docstox12 wrote:LOL, I want one to wear to the next GTG I go to!

LET'S DO IT!!!

What sizes guys, I'll see what I can do...

Janet. put me in for a large but I may have a family event that day.I'm 50-50 on attending the GTG on Nov.7.

by **docstox12** Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:13 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Here in 2015 weve got phones with curved screens and more power and speed than the computers and systems that took us to the moon, we've got smart TVs and devices and homes and everything can be run remotely if setup, the power of technology is limitless and growing every day, yet we still cant predit where a storm will go more than a couple days out... And im not sure we will unless they come up with some new revolutionary means to come up with predicting these patterns because these models are frankly terrible...

Must be just too many variables at this juncture of computer development to contend with.When I read your's, Doc's, Frank's and other analysis of the hurricane, I noticed so many subtle events that affected the predicted movement of the storm.You're right, it's frustrating, but a lot better than what was around during the Great Hurricane of 1935 in Florida that wiped out the Key West Railroad killing hundreds and the 1938 LI Hurricane killing 700.Maybe in our lifetime this will improve.

Reminds of that old song..."History has shown again and again how nature destroys the folly of men....!

by **docstox12** Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:21 am

Math23x7 wrote:

With all of this talk about snow holes, I think I should mention a different kind of screw zone when it comes to snowstorms, only it's for mixing issues rather than dryness issues. And that is the zone I live in. Take the part of Long Island (including Brooklyn and Queens) on the topographic map where the yellow line runs through (which I have marked as a thin black line. When it comes to snowstorms with marginal temperatures and/or mixing issues, this zone is usually the most likely place in the NYC region to change over to sleet/rain since during the wintertime months the water temperatures are usually warmer than they are on land. The winter of 2013-14 had many storms like this which why I got 48.7" of snow that winter while Central Park got 57.4" then. And James (syosnow94) you asked how it was possible I had about 50" of snow during the 2014-15 season while in Syosset you had over 70" of snow then. Well this gives a good illustration as to why it happens. The main reason I had more snow than CPK that year (granted it was by a small margin (CPK had 50.3" while I had 50.6") is because of "Juno" where CPK had 9.8" but I had 13" due to being in the heavy snowbands for a longer period of time than CPK was. CP may argue that the zookeeper had something to do with it even after the revisions in March but that's besides the point. I can tell you about the times where it was sleet/rain where I was while it was snow just miles away. Keep in mind, you CAN get more snow in this zone than surrounding areas but it happens when mesoscale bands move through the region (i.e. 2/22/08). And the zone can get less snow in all-snow systems, but when that happens the mesoscale bands are usually to the north and west (i.e. 2/12/06). Finally I wonder if I should extend this out to Montauk, but Im not sure about that.

I guess in your area, closer to the water is the cause of this mixing.Where I am now in the HV, I have elevation with colder temps to improve the ratio even with the lesser precip.Last year was over 70 inches while the town I moved from after 35 years, Mahwah in Bergen County NJ, 25 miles S and E of me, got about 55.The November snowstorm around Thanksgiving last year exemplified perfectly the old standrad of years ago, areas N and W of the City getting the bulk of the snow.There was over 9 inches up here while Mahwah got about 3.

Why the current trend of the last few years of snowstorms trending S and E with the heavier qvp is a mystery to me.Warmer ocean temps, steering winds...who knows.And the tracking , as Tom mentioned in a prior post above, is made more complex by the various models having their faults.One model had me over 40 inches on Juno then it all shifted E and I got about 2 or 3 inches.Talk about starting a panic at the supermarkets,LOL.

by **docstox12** Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:25 am

syosnow94 wrote:
jimv45 wrote:Can someone make me a shirt that says I AM IN THE HOLE! last few winters that's where I was!! Hope this year RB brings some good luck to this area!

you've been "in the hole" for 2 winters in a row??? Damn! I must be old. I could never even come close to that.

Wait until your 65,LOL!

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