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Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:13 am

06z gfs has little snow compared to how big and long lasting it is on the 19th though. It's still a Godzilla plus thpugh. Coast does not do well again I really hope that Temps won't b a issue if this comes to b.
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:59 am

If the storm happens and temps are in fact an issue I'm done!!! Remember though Frank said 3 days ago temps won't be an issue that there would be plenty of cold around.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:38 am

syosnow94 wrote:If the storm happens and temps are in fact an issue I'm done!!!  Remember though Frank said 3 days ago temps won't be an issue that there would be plenty of cold around.

Do not look at temp profiles this far out, as Frank said there is plenty of cold air due to the ao and the epo being neg during this time frame

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:58 am

We have to remember we always have precipitation type issues with almost every storm for us near the coast. However if a storm bombs to 973 millibars we won't have to worry about the rain snow line with that one. Jman your map goes out only the 240 hours so the 6gz probably shows more snow than the 18z from yesterday. Mugs all the best on your surgery and speedy and quick recovery and Frank I'll be there on the 16th if we get together to track this storm.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:37 am

Well we have had the greatest turn around in winter so far and 8t looks to be even greater when we get some white gold with this upcoming pattern the 3nxt 15 plus days.
The AO has done one of the greatest reveals in history.
Thus time frame I am confident will produce for us.

Found this online ao for Nov Dec then Jan
I
62-63.....-1.112............-0.711...............-5.010
65-66.....-1.341...........+0.163...............-5.130
76-77.....-0.087...........-2.074................-7.433
84-85.....-0.966...........+0.446................-6.226
09-10.....+0.459...........-3.413................-5.533
15-16.....+1.945...........+1.444................???


Simply amazing

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Post by Bkdude Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:38 am

syosnow94 wrote:If the storm happens and temps are in fact an issue I'm done!!!  Remember though Frank said 3 days ago temps won't be an issue that there would be plenty of cold around.


keep calm

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:07 am

@algae888 wrote:We have to remember we always have precipitation type issues with almost every storm for us near the coast. However if a storm bombs to 973 millibars we won't have to worry about the rain snow line with that one. Jman your map goes out only the 240 hours so the 6gz probably shows more snow than the 18z from yesterday. Mugs all the best on your surgery and speedy and quick recovery and Frank I'll be there on the 16th if we get together to track this storm.
06Z GFS at 276 hours shows a strong coastal at 976mb. Taken verbatim, no precip issues there.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:55 am

I don't know how their will ptype issues with the i,coming pattern . locking in the cold created by a monster block!

Also a rant I go on another site to read and it's bothering me they seem to down play the upcoming pattern saying only 17-20 is our chance I thought this pattern looks great going into February .
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:13 am

as I said 06z gfs has temp issues for coast verbatim and not nearly enough snow for such a storm. But I think this should have shown a LOT more accumulation.

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 Usa_as11
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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:39 pm

Should we start waking up the zoo keeper or let him sleep

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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:53 pm

WWA's up for places north, east, and west of me, but not for my county.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:07 pm

I rarely if ever watch the wx channel but it happened to be on at the chick when they actually are talking about the system around 18th! And they showed teleconnection graphs which I thought was kinda impressive for the usually all too commericalized channel. It was some wx underground 6pm special.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:57 pm

GFS very active even beyond the 17th. Here's another one around the 20th

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f276

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:07 am

Posted this in LR too but cant resist the eye candy, HOLY CRAP for us inland of 95.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=225&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_225_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160109+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:17 am

i really dont think their is going t6o be temp issues any where from what i read yesterday that mugs posted temps are freezing everywhere. By the way the not a name model i dont bother with. everyone is going to go crazy with so many days away and a million different solutions. ITS GOING TO SNOW
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:26 am

Holy crap Euro, mega bomb bit far south but can easily come further north, look at the wind gusts neat 100mph over ocean wow 950mb! 156hrs, is this banter still?

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_13
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:29 am

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_14

Has another system far south at 240hrs, things are getting very interesting.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:29 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap Euro, mega bomb bit far south but can easily come further north, look at the wind gusts neat 100mph over ocean wow 950mb! 156hrs, is this banter still?

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_13

Jman Euro actually brings two mega storms near the area...this one you show on the 15th and also the one on the 17th-18th. Not sure I buy the two storm scenario. See my write up in the LR thread. Looking at Surface maps are futile at this time

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:33 am

this is one crazy "winter" we are having. Tomorrow night a 30 degree drop from almost 60 to high 20's for me

Hopefully one of these storms turn out, need to see that white stuff on the ground or at least a sustained cold front
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:37 am

06z GFS has a storm too, but later than Euro, the surface runs are really struggling this far out as usual. Teasing like crazy.

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 Gfs_pr11
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:38 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap Euro, mega bomb bit far south but can easily come further north, look at the wind gusts neat 100mph over ocean wow 950mb! 156hrs, is this banter still?

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_13

Jman Euro actually brings two mega storms near the area...this one you show on the 15th and also the one on the 17th-18th.  Not sure I buy the two storm scenario.  See my write up in the LR thread.  Looking at Surface maps are futile at this time

I know but its fun, hence why I put it in banter till we get a thread going at some pt. Do you buy a system this strong possibly? GFS has snow cutoff at coast but like 15 miles inland its a godzilla, but i know temp profiles mean nothing as do surface maps as u said.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:23 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap Euro, mega bomb bit far south but can easily come further north, look at the wind gusts neat 100mph over ocean wow 950mb! 156hrs, is this banter still?

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf_13

Jman Euro actually brings two mega storms near the area...this one you show on the 15th and also the one on the 17th-18th.  Not sure I buy the two storm scenario.  See my write up in the LR thread.  Looking at Surface maps are futile at this time

I know but its fun, hence why I put it in banter till we get a thread going at some pt.  Do you buy a system this strong possibly?  GFS has snow cutoff at coast but like 15 miles inland its a godzilla, but i know temp profiles mean nothing as do surface maps as u said.

Jman. As sroc and Frank said model mayhem and plenty of cold around. Too early for specifics but..........verbatim a low like depicted on the Euro offshore THAT INTENSE would have ZERO issues bringing the cold air all the way into the ocean. In fact it would be a Gigantic Blizzard for especially the coast if it moved 100 miles NW in track.

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Post by Grselig Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:04 pm

Mugs, I really appreciate your posting of Earthlight's insights. Keep expectations low but hope for the best by maximizing potential. I think the Mara's ought to consider Earthlight to be the next Giant's coach. A mind like that can't be wasted! Hope your surgery goes well.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:17 pm

@snow247 wrote:WWA's up for places north, east, and west of me, but not for my county.

i love your avatar...so far that is the closest we are getting to snow..lol.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:51 pm

I just came back from the Home Depot and I bought two snow shovelsand rock salt the shovels I have are no good and brokenI just don't want to wait till last minuteI hope I did not jinx anything Embarassed Neutral silent

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